Once I get about five or six games into a season, I start to gamble with a little bit more fervor. After all, you have a much better sense of all 32 teams’ relative ability by this point.
I generally only gamble in two veins – football picks, and online casino games. So when I’m not trying my luck at netbet online casino games, I’m scouring over the weekly NFL odds, and looking for opportunity. My experiences are that just gambling every week for the sake of it, is not a worthwhile venture. So with an eye to actually winning, I offer you my four best options this week and a brief explanation of each:
Redskins (2-3) at Jets (3-1)
LINE: NY JETS by 6
Call me a homer, but I just don’t think the Jets deserve 6 points. The Redskins play solid defense, and the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Jets don’t really put the fear of God into anyone offensively, which just lessens the possibility of them winning by a touchdown. I struggle to see that happening regardless of the game’s result, so I’m taking Washington to cover.
Bengals (5-0) at Bills (3-2)
LINE: CINCINNATI by 4
Sometimes I let math run it’s course when I gamble and this is a case in point. It doesn’t even matter what I think about the game or the match-up, the line has just moved too much. This game opened as a straight pick-em in many venues, but due to the fact that the Bengals were getting the lion’s share of the action, the line moved four full points! Don’t overthink this or let your ego get in the way – the slide gave you four more points than you should get – take the Bills.
Patriots (5-0) at Colts (3-2)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 9.5
I have every confidence that the Patriots CAN cover whatever spread is put in front of them, especially against the Colts. Indianapolis may have won 3 times, but it was against the Texans, Titans and Jaguars. In their losses to the Bills and Jets, Indy lost by double digits. For your consideration, the Pats have won the last 4 match-ups by a combined score of 189-73 (45-7, 42-20, 43-22 and 59-24). That’s an average score of 47-18. Gulp. Bill Belichek won’t take his foot off their throats and this one will be ugly.
Pick: New England
Chargers (2-3) at Packers (5-0)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 10.5
In a complete about face, I struggle to see Green Bay covering double digits this week. The Chargers have covered 7 of the last 8 times after playing the Monday Night game and this week will be no different. Sure the Packers are going to win the game and remain undefeated, but 10.5 points is just an awful lot to give Phillip Rivers on any day.
Pick: San Diego
It doesn’t matter what I post here, you’re going to make decisions that you like. I chose these four games this week, because for me, they have the most up-side. Pop on over to NFL.com’s Game Center and pick up all of the latest information you need to make an informed decision about any game, and have fun!!
Follow me on Twitter @TheHogsdotNet and tell me what an idiot I am when I lose. 😉