Kiper suggestion for #6

Archive of discussions on NFL Draft 2003, NFL Draft 2004, NFL Draft 2005, NFL Draft 2006, NFL Draft 2007 NFL Draft 2008, NFL Draft 2009 and NFL Draft 2010.
spudstr04
Posts: 4116
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2004 8:13 am
Location: NC

Postby spudstr04 » Sun Apr 15, 2007 6:16 pm

TRADE DOWN!!!!
#21 = Forever in our hearts

G4L
Posts: 2361
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 2:45 pm
Location: no

Postby Gibbs4Life » Sun Apr 15, 2007 6:49 pm

Calvin Freaking Johnson...has the whole world gone insane


Moss & Johnson or Moss & Lloyd


Who do you want to go to war with?
HAIL

Pushing Paper
Posts: 4605
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:01 pm

Postby PulpExposure » Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:18 pm

SkinsFreak wrote:And yes, no one is perfect in predicting the future, including Kiper.


I was curious about Kiper's track record, so I did a search and came up with his post-mortem about the 2002 draft. here.

Some tidbits:

3. Detroit -- Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon
This was a decision Lions coach Marty Mornhinweg had to make based on his assessment of Mike McMahon, whom the Lions drafted last year. Harrington is the third highest player on my draft board and deserved to go in this area. Playing in Mike Bellotti's offense at Oregon, Harrington is a great fit for Mornhinweg's West Coast scheme. Harrington, who has a Brett Favre-like flair for the dramatic, was a highly productive quarterback and one I had rated only slightly behind Carr. But he outperformed Carr at the NFL scouting combine, showing tremendous touch and accuracy on deep balls and more than adequate arm strength. The Lions had to make a pick to generate fan interest in their team, especially with a new stadium coming soon


Brett Favre like flair for the dramatic? Throwing dramatic interceptions, perhaps.

4. Buffalo -- Mike Williams, OT, Texas
I had Williams rated ahead of Bryant McKinnie after the knee injury wasn't viewed as a concern. He could step in at either right or left tackle. At Texas, he protected the blind side of Chris Simms at right tackle, but he has prior experience at left tackle. He is a great pass blocker and is exceptional at sustaining blocks as a run blocker. He is nimble at 375 pounds, often getting downfield to help spring running backs for large gains. He has enough polish to step in and be an immediate starter and anchor on the Bills' offensive line.


Bryant McKinnie is a near-pro bowl OT, and afaik Mike Williams is out of the league as a gigantic bust. Not quite an anchor...

And you can go on down the list. It was a brutal draft, no doubt (lots of busts), but Kiper talks up every one of them. And questions taking John Henderson at 9, and Levi Jones at 10 (who is a pretty good OT), saying:

Jones is a good football player, potentially. But at No. 10? He was 17th on my board. Plus, the Bengals had bigger needs elsewhere; offensive tackle was not a crying need. They could have gotten Jones if they had traded down. Cornerback Phillip Buchanon was still on the board, as well as defensive tackles Albert Haynesworth and Wendell Bryant and tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Daniel Graham. To me, they needed to draft Buchanon or trade down.


The same Buchanon who can't hold down a starting spot anywhere. Or that Wendell Bryant who is out of the league.

My thing with Kiper is this. If he was really a great draft guy, some NFL team would throw a crapload of money at him to run their front office. He's just another talking head. With crazy hair.

Hog
User avatar
Posts: 467
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:17 pm

Postby jazzskins » Sun Apr 15, 2007 7:41 pm

SkinsJock wrote:Last year the Vikings defensively were #1 against the run and #32 against the pass :shock:


What so Ironic about it is that they have three first round picks on thier D-line......The D-line isn't thier problem. So, what is?

Pushing Paper
Posts: 4605
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:01 pm

Postby PulpExposure » Sun Apr 15, 2007 8:53 pm

jazzskins wrote:
SkinsJock wrote:Last year the Vikings defensively were #1 against the run and #32 against the pass :shock:


What so Ironic about it is that they have three first round picks on thier D-line......The D-line isn't thier problem. So, what is?


Yeah, but they only have one guy who can rush the passer (Kevin Williams, who had 5 whole sacks last year). Their defensive ends, both 1st rounders, were extremely unproductive. One because he was injured (Erasmus James), the other...started 16 games, had 29 tackes and NO SACKS. Darrien Scott, who played in lieu of James, had 5.5 sacks.

I'm sorry, but even with 2 former 1st rounders playing on the defensive line, 11.5 sacks is awful from your starting 4.

Without a passrush, they got torched. Is that really so surprising?

08 Champ
Posts: 13401
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2004 9:23 pm
Location: on the bandwagon

Postby SkinsJock » Sun Apr 15, 2007 9:08 pm

SkinsFreak wrote:Ok, Scouts has Gaines at #6, so I stand corrected, although Landry is still rated higher, which was my overall point. Other than that, the only other outlets that have a d-linemen in the top 6 are CNNSI and CBS Sportsline. :shock: I really wouldn't hang my hat on the grades given out by CNNSI or CBS Sportsline. I don't really consider their sports writers to be "expert" player evaluators. Pete Prisco still has Anderson at #5 and JaMarcus Russell at #20. :shock: :roll:

Experts have now had a chance to analyze hours of game film, as well as evaluate pro days and combine results. Initial projections were made without that luxury.

Remember, I only started talking about this because Kiper and Clayton brought it up first, and have now revised their initial projections. And like them or not, they do know a little bit about this stuff. I was just trying to figure out why. But there will always be varying opinions, that's a foregone conclusion.


I'm with you SkinsFreak - I think that there are 2 things about this draft that are a concern for the "selectors" and the "evaluators":
1) - there do not seem to be a lot of players that the "evaluators" are confident will be worth the sort of money a top 10 or a top 20 player should be worth.
2) - there have been a lot of players that the "selectors" have chosen in the top 20 in recent drafts that have not proven to be good "selections".

i think that is part of the reason the Redskins are having difficulty getting in getting more "value" for that 6 pick. Other teams want to keep their picks in the 20 thru 90 slots.
Getting our QB back will help a lot but we still have a lot of issues to address

Players and coaches need to believe that they can be successful - they are not playing with that attitude - big changes are coming

HAIL


Currently 50-41

Hog
Posts: 237
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:03 pm
Location: Nashville, TN

Postby funbuncher » Mon Apr 16, 2007 2:39 pm

SkinsJock wrote:Last year the Vikings defensively were #1 against the run and #32 against the pass :shock:

I am surprised to continually see here (Kiper and most everybody in the media, know squat about this team and our needs) that some think a great secondary is as important or even more-so than a great front 7.
I think having a great secondary is important and would be great but the need at this time is the line and ensuring that the few good college prospects we add will help make the current players better. We have some decent guys now but we need to be better up front IMO more than we need to improve our secondary.


The Vikings, like us, could generate no pass rush so they drafted a defensive end in the 1st round in 2004 AND 2005. Now they still rank 32 against the pass in 2006.

While I agree with your point in general, the Vikings example only proves we should do something OTHER than draft a DE :shock: .

Pushing Paper
Posts: 4605
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:01 pm

Postby PulpExposure » Mon Apr 16, 2007 2:47 pm

funbuncher wrote:[While I agree with your point in general, the Vikings example only proves we should do something OTHER than draft a DE :shock: .


Or...maybe it says we should draft a DE who can actually rush the passer (unlike Udeze who started 16 games and had ZERO sacks)?

Hog
Posts: 237
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 2:03 pm
Location: Nashville, TN

Postby funbuncher » Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:05 pm

PulpExposure wrote:
SkinsFreak wrote:And yes, no one is perfect in predicting the future, including Kiper.


I was curious about Kiper's track record, so I did a search and came up with his post-mortem about the 2002 draft. here.

Some tidbits:

3. Detroit -- Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon
This was a decision Lions coach Marty Mornhinweg had to make based on his assessment of Mike McMahon, whom the Lions drafted last year. Harrington is the third highest player on my draft board and deserved to go in this area. Playing in Mike Bellotti's offense at Oregon, Harrington is a great fit for Mornhinweg's West Coast scheme. Harrington, who has a Brett Favre-like flair for the dramatic, was a highly productive quarterback and one I had rated only slightly behind Carr. But he outperformed Carr at the NFL scouting combine, showing tremendous touch and accuracy on deep balls and more than adequate arm strength. The Lions had to make a pick to generate fan interest in their team, especially with a new stadium coming soon


Brett Favre like flair for the dramatic? Throwing dramatic interceptions, perhaps.

4. Buffalo -- Mike Williams, OT, Texas
I had Williams rated ahead of Bryant McKinnie after the knee injury wasn't viewed as a concern. He could step in at either right or left tackle. At Texas, he protected the blind side of Chris Simms at right tackle, but he has prior experience at left tackle. He is a great pass blocker and is exceptional at sustaining blocks as a run blocker. He is nimble at 375 pounds, often getting downfield to help spring running backs for large gains. He has enough polish to step in and be an immediate starter and anchor on the Bills' offensive line.


Bryant McKinnie is a near-pro bowl OT, and afaik Mike Williams is out of the league as a gigantic bust. Not quite an anchor...

And you can go on down the list. It was a brutal draft, no doubt (lots of busts), but Kiper talks up every one of them. And questions taking John Henderson at 9, and Levi Jones at 10 (who is a pretty good OT), saying:

Jones is a good football player, potentially. But at No. 10? He was 17th on my board. Plus, the Bengals had bigger needs elsewhere; offensive tackle was not a crying need. They could have gotten Jones if they had traded down. Cornerback Phillip Buchanon was still on the board, as well as defensive tackles Albert Haynesworth and Wendell Bryant and tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Daniel Graham. To me, they needed to draft Buchanon or trade down.


The same Buchanon who can't hold down a starting spot anywhere. Or that Wendell Bryant who is out of the league.

My thing with Kiper is this. If he was really a great draft guy, some NFL team would throw a crapload of money at him to run their front office. He's just another talking head. With crazy hair.


The guy has been doing this for 20 plus years, so he's going to have some hits and misses. He had Jeff George rated as a 3rd rounder the year he was drafted 1st overall. He had Rick Mirer as a late 1st rounder and he went #2. He got blasted by the Colts for saying they shouldn't have taken Trev Alberts, but he was right about that too.

I'm not saying the guy is perfect or even close, but you were painting a pretty one sided picture there.

The bottom line is that he does this 365 days a year, for 20 something years, so he does have some degree of credibility. But in the end, the draft is one of the biggest crapshoots in sports so hopefully we study real hard and do all the due dilligence, and then hopefully we just get real lucky :D .

Fire in the Sky
Posts: 4730
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2005 7:31 am
Location: Surfside

Postby SkinsFreak » Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:12 pm

PulpExposure wrote:
funbuncher wrote:[While I agree with your point in general, the Vikings example only proves we should do something OTHER than draft a DE :shock: .


Or...maybe it says we should draft a DE who can actually rush the passer (unlike Udeze who started 16 games and had ZERO sacks)?


:shock: Are you serious? :lol: Are we back to criticizing their inability to predict the future??? Is there a crystal ball down at Redskins Park or something, you know, so we can avoid the same mistake? Come on...

***I think you just proved the point as to why some in the NFL are now leery about giving a potentially over-rated DE or DT huge amounts of guaranteed money.***

Cause it ain't about the fact that the Skins need d-line help, and it ain't about whether or not one of these guys could turn out to be good, but it's ALL about the guaranteed money, the size of the contract associated with the #6 pick, and the inherent risks involved. You gave us a perfect example of how you can get screwed.

If you take one of those guys, like Udeze, as you pointed out, and they fail to perform, as you pointed out, you are now screwed for the next few years. It's all about the risk / reward factor.

08 Champ
Posts: 13401
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2004 9:23 pm
Location: on the bandwagon

Postby SkinsJock » Mon Apr 16, 2007 4:08 pm

funbuncher wrote:..The Vikings, like us, could generate no pass rush so they drafted a defensive end in the 1st round in 2004 AND 2005. Now they still rank 32 against the pass in 2006.

While I agree with your point in general, the Vikings example only proves we should do something OTHER than draft a DE :shock: .


You are partly right - The Vikings line was not good against the pass all year long - I think our line started to show some promise at the end of the year. Also the Vikings line did not get any help from who they drafted - I certainly hope that is not the case here PLUS I think that if we do use that 6 pick on a DE or a DT we will see a huge improvement across the board from our defense - the guys we have now were coming on fairly well at the end of the year and IMO we just need to "add" to those guys and we will see a lot more pressure from the front 4.

I doubt that we use the 6 pick however as I think they want to get more than 1 player for that pick.
Getting our QB back will help a lot but we still have a lot of issues to address

Players and coaches need to believe that they can be successful - they are not playing with that attitude - big changes are coming

HAIL


Currently 50-41

Pushing Paper
Posts: 4605
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:01 pm

Postby PulpExposure » Mon Apr 16, 2007 8:30 pm

SkinsFreak wrote:
PulpExposure wrote:
funbuncher wrote:[While I agree with your point in general, the Vikings example only proves we should do something OTHER than draft a DE :shock: .


Or...maybe it says we should draft a DE who can actually rush the passer (unlike Udeze who started 16 games and had ZERO sacks)?


:shock: Are you serious? :lol: Are we back to criticizing their inability to predict the future??? Is there a crystal ball down at Redskins Park or something, you know, so we can avoid the same mistake? Come on...

***I think you just proved the point as to why some in the NFL are now leery about giving a potentially over-rated DE or DT huge amounts of guaranteed money.***

Cause it ain't about the fact that the Skins need d-line help, and it ain't about whether or not one of these guys could turn out to be good, but it's ALL about the guaranteed money, the size of the contract associated with the #6 pick, and the inherent risks involved. You gave us a perfect example of how you can get screwed.

If you take one of those guys, like Udeze, as you pointed out, and they fail to perform, as you pointed out, you are now screwed for the next few years. It's all about the risk / reward factor.


Well, you're comparing apples and oranges. Udeze and Erasmus James were both late 1st round picks (Udeze was the 20th pick, James was the 18th pick). At that range, when you pick a D-end, your chance of getting a passrushing monster is fairly low (I can think of both Renaldo Wynn and Kendard Lang went around that point).

DE's drafted in the Top 12 since 2000 (with pick # in () afterwards):
2006: Mario Williams (1)
2003: Terrell Suggs (10)
2002: Julius Peppers (2), Dwight Freeney (11)
2001: Justin Smith (4), Richard Seymour (6), Andre Carter (7)
2000: Courtney Brown (1), Shaun Ellis (12)

Yeah, there are a few busts (I guess don't pick a DE first overall?), but that's a pretty good list. Everyone except for the two first pick guys and Justin Smith has had at least 1 double digit sack season. Even better, excepting Mario Williams (and the jury really is out on him still), Courtney Brown (who was crippled by injuries), Justin Smith and Andre Carter, every one on that list has made at least one Pro Bowl. And Justin Smith hasn't been the passrushing monster people expected, but has been quite a solid defensive lineman. There's really not busts there (if you acknowledge Brown's career was wrecked by injuries). That's a very good return on value.

I think you're getting a bit tied up in the argument without seeing the big picture. I like Landry. I think that would be a really sick safety tandem. But...as it stands, we have a decent secondary. We have a stinky defensive line. No one, no matter how good they are, can cover someone forever....and that's where we're left if we don't get someone who can rush the passer. Or be a run stuffer....we can't depend on someone who plays 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage to improve our run game that much.

You made the point that no one had DE ranked 6th...well they have D-line ranked 6-10 pretty consistently. I think we can get decent value drafting someone at 6 who may be ranked 6th, 7th or 8th...if it's a position of need. And I can't imagine (imho) a greater need than defensive line.

08 Champ
Posts: 13401
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2004 9:23 pm
Location: on the bandwagon

Postby SkinsJock » Mon Apr 16, 2007 9:29 pm

The last few drafts have a number of people selected at all positions that have not worked out for the teams that selected them and a lot of guys who were not only not drafted but were drafted on the second day that have adapted really well to the pro game.

Our greatest weakness in player acquisitions recently has been that our talent "predictions" for both the draft and the free agents have left a lot to be desired. Hopefully this year our guys are going to make up for a lot of those mistakes of years past and give us a few young guys to add to the mix and help make this team better.
Getting our QB back will help a lot but we still have a lot of issues to address

Players and coaches need to believe that they can be successful - they are not playing with that attitude - big changes are coming

HAIL


Currently 50-41

Hog
User avatar
Posts: 467
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:17 pm

Postby jazzskins » Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:44 pm

funbuncher wrote:While I agree with your point in general, the Vikings example only proves we should do something OTHER than draft a DE :shock: .

Exactly, I'm not saying that I'm opposed to drafting on the D-line. I'm not disagreeing that the D-line has an impact on the secondary (sorry, I realized looking back that it sounded that way). What I am saying is that drafting a DE at #6 is a risky proposition. The vikings have drafted three out of the last four first rounders on the D-line and what has it done?

High first round d-linemen are always risky. Thats why I would much rather trade down and get a few guys.

Hog
User avatar
Posts: 467
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:17 pm

Postby jazzskins » Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:47 pm

PulpExposure wrote:DE's drafted in the Top 12 since 2000 (with pick # in () afterwards):
2006: Mario Williams (1)
2003: Terrell Suggs (10)
2002: Julius Peppers (2), Dwight Freeney (11)
2001: Justin Smith (4), Richard Seymour (6), Andre Carter (7)
2000: Courtney Brown (1), Shaun Ellis (12).


Thats good information. I guess its the DT's alone that end up so risky? What does that chart look like for DT's?

Return to NFL Draft 2003-2010