What to do..

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the 'mudge
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Postby Countertrey » Mon Mar 08, 2004 12:38 pm

NJ SKINSFAN:
Gibbs uses tight ends mostly for blocking


Look, I really agree with your opinion that we should be grabbing the best defender availible with our pick, but this is one of those Gibbs myths that needs to be addressed.

Clint Didier was one of Gibbs favorite offensive weapons, and it had nothing to do with his blocking ability. In six years with the 'skins, Didier had 129 receptions for 1815 yards, averaging about 13.6 YPC, and scoring 19 times. In his best year (1986) he had 34 catches for 691 yds, ave 20.3 YPC and scoring 4 TD's. Hardly "just a blocker". The tight end is, of course, critical to Gibbs rushing scheme... but it is an offensive weapon on it's own, as well. That's why he had BOTH Didier AND Donnie Warren.

Gibbs would love a weapon like Winslow. The question is, would he love Winslow's attitude?
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scooter
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Postby Scooter » Mon Mar 08, 2004 2:29 pm

I'd take Sean Taylor - no doubt. If he wasn't there - I'd take Winslow. Trading down isn't a bad option - but I think either of these guys is a probable SUPER STAR. Taylor is a sure tackling, 230 lbs, STUD!

There's great value in this pick. With Mike Williams now in the draft - that crowds the top of the list considerably. In a way, he really helped the Skins buy jumping in. He and Fitzy have tons of teams after them. With Eli and Big Ben being neck-and-neck at QB... we'll have a chance to trade down and get some good quality too...

Not hedging though - Sean Taylor is worth the pick at #5 and would help us IMMEDIATELY

swine
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Postby silent1903 » Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:09 pm

Scooter wrote:Not hedging though - Sean Taylor is worth the pick at #5 and would help us IMMEDIATELY

Definitely worth it. Last big signing IMO. If he has gone, and with the offensive weapons available at the top of the draft I would think this unlikely, then trade down, draft a DE and maybe a S or TE from further down the draft.

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Postby skinsfaninroanoke » Mon Mar 08, 2004 10:56 pm

Guys - are we forgetting Stoupes out of Florida (no groans please)? He was tremendous down there and has the body size to be a terrific blocker. Had more rec. yards than all the WR.
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Postby hailskins666 » Tue Mar 09, 2004 11:01 am

i agree rich. trading down, we could have a shot to score udeze, and troupe/watson. that would be a pass rusher, and a TE to depend on in the future.
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Postby silent1903 » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:00 pm

SirSmizzy wrote:
CrazyLikeAFox87 wrote:
SirSmizzy wrote:Trade down....
get mulitple picks and you can still get a damn good player at 20 and in the second and 3rd rounds....you don't need to draft at 5...there is no guarantee that a top 5 pick is going to be better than the 154th....there are no guarantees in the nfl.


Of course there are no guarantees from the draft, but it's a question of the odds, and likelihood of success. You are more likely to get a stud at #5 than #154....are you saying we may as well take #154 than #5? Your comment is like saying "there is no such thing as an easy question, you either know it or you don't". It's rubbish. An easy question is "who is the President of the USA", virtually everyone knows. A hard question is "what is the population of Mexico City....and name them". Which would you take?
Taylor is going to be an impact player at #5 and will raise the level of the whole defense....I say take him even if no more draft picks.
Also, who would you have, a proven CB (Butler) or a 5th round pick? What is the likelihood of a 5th round CB making the team? Hey, we used our 5th round pick to draft Butler, a good nickel back and part-time #2 CB....that was a successful pick don't you think?
??????

My point was trade down...you will still have a 1st round pick and you can add a late 2nd and/or 3rd.


Perhaps you didn't understand Crazy's point by your ?????? there. Saying you don't need to draft at #5....sure, but the further you drop down the draft, the less likely you are to pick an impact player. Taylor is a STRONG likelihood of making a major impact in the NFL, and I like those odds over anyone else further down the draft.
Last edited by silent1903 on Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby SirSmizzy » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:33 pm

You guys are so caught up with the #5 thats cool...but its not guaranteed to be anybetter than pick 15..its a fact.

There are hundreds of examples of guys who are just as good in rounds 2 or 3 than the 1st round guys.

It would be smarter to get more picks...there are 26 other first round pick...trading #5 to for any of those teams would guarantee you more picks and a 1st round pick.

Nobody is saying trade out of the 1st round...you can still get a great player and additional players.

You need to get some players young and cheap...you can't keep paying guys this kind of money,it will catch up to you sometime.Plus do you have any clue how much the #5 pick is going to cost?
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swine
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Postby silent1903 » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:59 pm

SirSmizzy wrote:You guys are so caught up with the #5 thats cool...but its not guaranteed to be anybetter than pick 15..its a fact.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree here. I agree there are never guarantees in the draft, but hundreds of scouts do most of the time know what they are talking about when analysing prospective NFL talent, and if you were able to analyse relative success of players depending on where they were picked in the draft, you would find that the higher the pick the better chance of success. To take extreme examples, say a top 5 pick is 90% certain of being a Pro Bowl player, and a bottom end of round 1 is 50%, and round 2 25%. To be better off by taking the lower 2 picks, you have a 1 in 8 chance of both succeeding. I'd rather we took the lesser risk of drafting high than what I see as the greater risk of getting nothing out of two picks.

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Postby SirSmizzy » Tue Mar 09, 2004 4:22 pm

I will agree that top5 picks are different then top 10.

You do have amuch better chance at a pro-bowl player at 5..

do you honestly believe you are 1 player away from a SB?

This is the best and last chance after FA to add to your team...the possiblities are endless.With 1 pick the possibilities and limited.

They are only 2 guy2 i can see that would come in at 5 and make all the difference.

1.Taylor
2.Winslow

I think Taylor would have a much bigger imapct overall than winslow.
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swine
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Postby silent1903 » Tue Mar 09, 2004 4:41 pm

SirSmizzy wrote:I will agree that top5 picks are different then top 10.

You do have amuch better chance at a pro-bowl player at 5..

do you honestly believe you are 1 player away from a SB?

This is the best and last chance after FA to add to your team...the possiblities are endless.With 1 pick the possibilities and limited.

They are only 2 guy2 i can see that would come in at 5 and make all the difference.

1.Taylor
2.Winslow

I think Taylor would have a much bigger imapct overall than winslow.


Hey, we agree on some stuff! I'm with you on the Taylor thing, I hope we draft him. And no, I don't think we are one player from a SB, but nor do I expect a SB this season. It is a building block to one, and a team needs impact players on the roster in order to achieve that. Lets not pass up on a good shout for one.

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Postby SirSmizzy » Tue Mar 09, 2004 5:02 pm

Imagine this:

The 49ers offer you their

1st
2nd
3rd for you #5 pick.

Your pick has a value of 1800

the 49ers picks are

1st(16 overall) is worth 1000
2nd(48th) is worth 430
3rd(80th) 195

thats 1625....you would even get all the value for your pick.

yet you would have the 16th,48th and 80th picks.

Thats a much better building block to build on with gibbs isn't it?

There is much less of a chance to have all 3 players "bust"

Can you live with the this trade?
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swine
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Postby silent1903 » Tue Mar 09, 2004 5:18 pm

SirSmizzy wrote:Imagine this:

The 49ers offer you their

1st
2nd
3rd for you #5 pick.

Your pick has a value of 1800

the 49ers picks are

1st(16 overall) is worth 1000
2nd(48th) is worth 430
3rd(80th) 195

thats 1625....you would even get all the value for your pick.

yet you would have the 16th,48th and 80th picks.

Thats a much better building block to build on with gibbs isn't it?

There is much less of a chance to have all 3 players "bust"

Can you live with the this trade?


Is that a likely offer? It's something worth considering for sure. But the likelihood would be for 2 roster-fillers out of that, maybe even a very good roster filler. If I was so convinced of getting a Pro Bowler with my #5 I'd take that still.
I know what you are saying, and of course this is where the FO's earn their corn, but if you can draft a real impact player, surely you gotta?

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Postby SirSmizzy » Tue Mar 09, 2004 5:32 pm

If he is no question a knock out player.

The only guaranteed homerun in this draft is taylor.

Depending how the 1st 4 picks go you need to be open to trading out.
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swine
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Postby silent1903 » Tue Mar 09, 2004 5:42 pm

SirSmizzy wrote:If he is no question a knock out player.

The only guaranteed homerun in this draft is taylor.

Depending how the 1st 4 picks go you need to be open to trading out.


That's why I say take Taylor. If he has gone, then we trade down because we will still get our main need of DE further down. Then, we can't lose by dropping a few places for another pick.

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