Draft is a Crapshoot?

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Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby DarthMonk » Wed Dec 29, 2010 6:10 pm

I've seen it posited that after round 1 the draft is a crapshoot. The Steelers have a rep for drafting well so I figured I'd check how they've done this decade in rounds 2 and 3.

2000, 2 = Marvel Smith, OT, 9 years with PIT
2000, 3 = Tridel Clancy, DT, 10 years in NFL, 5 with PIT
2000, 3 = Hank Poteat, DB, 10 years in NFL, 3 with PIT

2001, 2 = Kendrell Bell, LB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2002, 2 = Antwaan Randle El, WR, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2002, 3 = Chris Hope, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2003, 2 = Alonzo Jackson, DE, 4 years in NFL, 2 with PIT

2004, 2 = Ricardo Colclough, DB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2004, 3 = Max Starks, OT, 6 years with PIT

2005, 2 = Bryant McFadden, DB, 5 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2005, 3 = Trai Essex, OT, 5 years with PIT

2006, 3 = Anthony Smith, DB, 5 years in NFL, 3 with PIT
2006, 3 = Willie Reid, WR, 2 years with PIT

2007, 2 = LaMarr Woodley, DE, 3 years with PIT
2007, 3 = Matt Spaeth, TE, 3 years with PIT

2008, 2 = Limas Sweed, WR, 2 years with PIT
2008, 3 = Bruce Davis, LB, 2 years in NFL, 1 with PIT

2009, 3 = Kraig Urbik, OG, 1 year in with PIT
2009, 3 = Mike Wallace, WR, 1 year with PIT
2009, 3 = Keenan Lewis, DB, 1 year with PIT

This took 20 minutes. They did almost as well in round 4 and found many gems later.

Almost ALL their picks, regardless of round, make the team.

I left out NO ONE! These are ALL their round 2 and 3 picks. They ALL made the team. You can add a year to almost every NFL stint since they don't include this year.

WE NEED TO KEEP OUR PICKS AND PICK WELL. IT IS NOT A FRICKIN' CRAPSHOOT. IT IS A TEST OF THE FRONT OFFICE!

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Postby DarthMonk » Wed Dec 29, 2010 6:20 pm

BTW - their number ones in order since 2000 are:

Plaxico Burress
Casey Hampton
Kendall Simmons
Troy Polamalu
Ben Roethlisberger
Heath Miller
Santonio Holmes
Lawrence Timmons
Rashard Mendenhall
Evander Hood
Maurkice Pouncey

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Postby SkinsJock » Thu Dec 30, 2010 10:08 am

The NFL draft is a crapshoot for many teams that don't have very good guys that can both locate the players that will develop with NFL coaching and players that will both provide depth and also help make the other players around them better as they gain NFL experience

The top 200 players out of college have potential to be very good players in the NFL - locating the players that can help your franchise and have the desire to be as good as they can be is what marks the difference


we have not had much success with the draft but that is because we traded away so many draft picks - PLUS, we did not have a FO (or scouting department) that knew anything about finding young players that fit what the franchise needed - they also wouldn't hire anyone that knew what to look for, for fear of showing up their own stupidity
The Redskins need change - we need a better GM and we need to do a better job of who we bring in to coach and play here - players and coaches need to be held accountable when they do not do their jobs well

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Postby DarthMonk » Thu Dec 30, 2010 5:24 pm

Quite naturally (as Doug Williams used to say) I agree with all you say below. Pittsburgh clearly demonstrates that the draft need not be a crapshoot at all. For them it is more like a reliable tool. Would you mostly attribute this problem we have had to Dan Snyder?

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SkinsJock wrote:The NFL draft is a crapshoot for many teams that don't have very good guys that can both locate the players that will develop with NFL coaching and players that will both provide depth and also help make the other players around them better as they gain NFL experience

The top 200 players out of college have potential to be very good players in the NFL - locating the players that can help your franchise and have the desire to be as good as they can be is what marks the difference


we have not had much success with the draft but that is because we traded away so many draft picks - PLUS, we did not have a FO (or scouting department) that knew anything about finding young players that fit what the franchise needed - they also wouldn't hire anyone that knew what to look for, for fear of showing up their own stupidity
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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby KazooSkinsFan » Thu Dec 30, 2010 5:40 pm

DarthMonk wrote:I've seen it posited that after round 1 the draft is a crapshoot. The Steelers have a rep for drafting well so I figured I'd check how they've done this decade in rounds 2 and 3...

It's a good argument
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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby brad7686 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:14 am

DarthMonk wrote:I've seen it posited that after round 1 the draft is a crapshoot. The Steelers have a rep for drafting well so I figured I'd check how they've done this decade in rounds 2 and 3.

2000, 2 = Marvel Smith, OT, 9 years with PIT
2000, 3 = Tridel Clancy, DT, 10 years in NFL, 5 with PIT
2000, 3 = Hank Poteat, DB, 10 years in NFL, 3 with PIT

2001, 2 = Kendrell Bell, LB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2002, 2 = Antwaan Randle El, WR, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2002, 3 = Chris Hope, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2003, 2 = Alonzo Jackson, DE, 4 years in NFL, 2 with PIT

2004, 2 = Ricardo Colclough, DB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2004, 3 = Max Starks, OT, 6 years with PIT

2005, 2 = Bryant McFadden, DB, 5 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2005, 3 = Trai Essex, OT, 5 years with PIT

2006, 3 = Anthony Smith, DB, 5 years in NFL, 3 with PIT
2006, 3 = Willie Reid, WR, 2 years with PIT

2007, 2 = LaMarr Woodley, DE, 3 years with PIT
2007, 3 = Matt Spaeth, TE, 3 years with PIT

2008, 2 = Limas Sweed, WR, 2 years with PIT
2008, 3 = Bruce Davis, LB, 2 years in NFL, 1 with PIT

2009, 3 = Kraig Urbik, OG, 1 year in with PIT
2009, 3 = Mike Wallace, WR, 1 year with PIT
2009, 3 = Keenan Lewis, DB, 1 year with PIT

This took 20 minutes. They did almost as well in round 4 and found many gems later.

Almost ALL their picks, regardless of round, make the team.

I left out NO ONE! These are ALL their round 2 and 3 picks. They ALL made the team. You can add a year to almost every NFL stint since they don't include this year.

WE NEED TO KEEP OUR PICKS AND PICK WELL. IT IS NOT A FRICKIN' CRAPSHOOT. IT IS A TEST OF THE FRONT OFFICE!

DarthMonk


That's 3 or 4 players give or take that are worth a crap from rounds 2-3 over a 9 year span.

They do draft well in the first round though. And If you actually have 2nd-3rd rounders every year, unlike the skins, you may have some Mike Wallace's in there somewhere. After the first round, the draft IS a crapshoot. It's smart to just take the best athlete you can find IMO after the first round.
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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby DarthMonk » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:32 pm

brad7686 wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:I've seen it posited that after round 1 the draft is a crapshoot. The Steelers have a rep for drafting well so I figured I'd check how they've done this decade in rounds 2 and 3.

2000, 2 = Marvel Smith, OT, 9 years with PIT
2000, 3 = Tridel Clancy, DT, 10 years in NFL, 5 with PIT
2000, 3 = Hank Poteat, DB, 10 years in NFL, 3 with PIT

2001, 2 = Kendrell Bell, LB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2002, 2 = Antwaan Randle El, WR, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2002, 3 = Chris Hope, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2003, 2 = Alonzo Jackson, DE, 4 years in NFL, 2 with PIT

2004, 2 = Ricardo Colclough, DB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2004, 3 = Max Starks, OT, 6 years with PIT

2005, 2 = Bryant McFadden, DB, 5 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2005, 3 = Trai Essex, OT, 5 years with PIT

2006, 3 = Anthony Smith, DB, 5 years in NFL, 3 with PIT
2006, 3 = Willie Reid, WR, 2 years with PIT

2007, 2 = LaMarr Woodley, DE, 3 years with PIT
2007, 3 = Matt Spaeth, TE, 3 years with PIT

2008, 2 = Limas Sweed, WR, 2 years with PIT
2008, 3 = Bruce Davis, LB, 2 years in NFL, 1 with PIT

2009, 3 = Kraig Urbik, OG, 1 year in with PIT
2009, 3 = Mike Wallace, WR, 1 year with PIT
2009, 3 = Keenan Lewis, DB, 1 year with PIT

This took 20 minutes. They did almost as well in round 4 and found many gems later.

Almost ALL their picks, regardless of round, make the team.

I left out NO ONE! These are ALL their round 2 and 3 picks. They ALL made the team. You can add a year to almost every NFL stint since they don't include this year.

[size=18]WE NEED TO KEEP OUR PICKS AND PICK WELL. IT IS NOT A FRICKIN' CRAPSHOOT. IT IS A TEST OF THE FRONT OFFICE![/size]


DarthMonk


That's 3 or 4 players give or take that are worth a crap from rounds 2-3 over a 9 year span.


Really??!! That's what you got out of this??!! How about "That's a 100% success rate in guys making the team over 90% of whom are still in the league after 2 to 10 years."

brad7686 wrote:They do draft well in the first round though.


I'll say!

brad7686 wrote:And If you actually have 2nd-3rd rounders every year, unlike the skins, you may have some Mike Wallace's in there somewhere. After the first round, the draft IS a crapshoot.


Not for the Steelers! They make the team and stay in the league for 10 years!

brad7686 wrote:It's smart to just take the best athlete you can find IMO after the first round.


I absolutely agree with that!

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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby brad7686 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:01 pm

DarthMonk wrote:
brad7686 wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:I've seen it posited that after round 1 the draft is a crapshoot. The Steelers have a rep for drafting well so I figured I'd check how they've done this decade in rounds 2 and 3.

2000, 2 = Marvel Smith, OT, 9 years with PIT
2000, 3 = Tridel Clancy, DT, 10 years in NFL, 5 with PIT
2000, 3 = Hank Poteat, DB, 10 years in NFL, 3 with PIT

2001, 2 = Kendrell Bell, LB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2002, 2 = Antwaan Randle El, WR, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2002, 3 = Chris Hope, 8 years in NFL, 4 with PIT

2003, 2 = Alonzo Jackson, DE, 4 years in NFL, 2 with PIT

2004, 2 = Ricardo Colclough, DB, 7 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2004, 3 = Max Starks, OT, 6 years with PIT

2005, 2 = Bryant McFadden, DB, 5 years in NFL, 4 with PIT
2005, 3 = Trai Essex, OT, 5 years with PIT

2006, 3 = Anthony Smith, DB, 5 years in NFL, 3 with PIT
2006, 3 = Willie Reid, WR, 2 years with PIT

2007, 2 = LaMarr Woodley, DE, 3 years with PIT
2007, 3 = Matt Spaeth, TE, 3 years with PIT

2008, 2 = Limas Sweed, WR, 2 years with PIT
2008, 3 = Bruce Davis, LB, 2 years in NFL, 1 with PIT

2009, 3 = Kraig Urbik, OG, 1 year in with PIT
2009, 3 = Mike Wallace, WR, 1 year with PIT
2009, 3 = Keenan Lewis, DB, 1 year with PIT

This took 20 minutes. They did almost as well in round 4 and found many gems later.

Almost ALL their picks, regardless of round, make the team.

I left out NO ONE! These are ALL their round 2 and 3 picks. They ALL made the team. You can add a year to almost every NFL stint since they don't include this year.

[size=18]WE NEED TO KEEP OUR PICKS AND PICK WELL. IT IS NOT A FRICKIN' CRAPSHOOT. IT IS A TEST OF THE FRONT OFFICE![/size]


DarthMonk


That's 3 or 4 players give or take that are worth a crap from rounds 2-3 over a 9 year span.


Really??!! That's what you got out of this??!! How about "That's a 100% success rate in guys making the team over 90% of whom are still in the league after 2 to 10 years."

brad7686 wrote:They do draft well in the first round though.


I'll say!

brad7686 wrote:And If you actually have 2nd-3rd rounders every year, unlike the skins, you may have some Mike Wallace's in there somewhere. After the first round, the draft IS a crapshoot.


Not for the Steelers! They make the team and stay in the league for 10 years!

brad7686 wrote:It's smart to just take the best athlete you can find IMO after the first round.


I absolutely agree with that!

DarthMonk


I see your point, a lot of those guys did make the team, but only a few are obviously better than someone you could get for cheap in FA. Those players would be Woodley, Wallace, Smith, McFadden. I guess Hope was good in his day, but everybody is in that defense, Essex is ok and Urbik could be good with time. I was simply saying they don't have a gem every time because that's impossible. But like we got Cooley in the third, we could find more gems if we had more mid round picks. Because you won't find a good player after the first round every year.
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Postby langleyparkjoe » Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:33 pm

DarthMonk wrote:BTW - their number ones in order since 2000 are:

Plaxico Burress
Casey Hampton
Kendall Simmons
Troy Polamalu
Ben Roethlisberger
Heath Miller
Santonio Holmes
Lawrence Timmons
Rashard Mendenhall
Evander Hood
Maurkice Pouncey

DarthMonk


Plax, Hampton, Simmons, Poloamalu, Rapeburger, Miller, Holmes, Timmons, Mendenhall, Pouncey I know of easily.. Hood I don't really know about.. good grief, that's how you do the draft properly. Them, gnats, and Pats seem to always draft good by keeping players on the bench and developing them. I hope our new GM follows them
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Postby markshark84 » Mon Jan 10, 2011 11:02 am

Are people really saying that the Steelers don't draft well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds????? Does anyone know how difficult it is to STAY in the NFL for more than 4 years. The Steelers have more guys from the 2-3s still in the NFL than some first round drafts. The Steelers find their stars in the first round consistently and then either find additional stars or role players in the 2nd-3rds. Hopefully people have come to realize after this season how important depth is in this game. Those guys listed up there are the reason that a team like the Steelers can endure injuries without a hitch. Not seeing that is being completely blind to how the "team" is constructed.

I personally think this is a good example of something that I have always contended: the GM is the single most important person within an NFL organization.

A team is only as good as their GM. They are the architect. Without a good/great one, your entire building will implode.
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Postby DarthMonk » Wed Jan 12, 2011 1:54 pm

Amen!

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markshark84 wrote:Are people really saying that the Steelers don't draft well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds????? Does anyone know how difficult it is to STAY in the NFL for more than 4 years. The Steelers have more guys from the 2-3s still in the NFL than some first round drafts. The Steelers find their stars in the first round consistently and then either find additional stars or role players in the 2nd-3rds. Hopefully people have come to realize after this season how important depth is in this game. Those guys listed up there are the reason that a team like the Steelers can endure injuries without a hitch. Not seeing that is being completely blind to how the "team" is constructed.

I personally think this is a good example of something that I have always contended: the GM is the single most important person within an NFL organization.

A team is only as good as their GM. They are the architect. Without a good/great one, your entire building will implode.
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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby yupchagee » Wed Jan 12, 2011 11:45 pm

[quote="brad7686]
That's 3 or 4 players give or take that are worth a crap from rounds 2-3 over a 9 year span.

They do draft well in the first round though. And If you actually have 2nd-3rd rounders every year, unlike the skins, you may have some Mike Wallace's in there somewhere. After the first round, the draft IS a crapshoot. It's smart to just take the best athlete you can find IMO after the first round.[/quote]


Not best athlete, I think you mean best football player. I'm in favor of taking the player most likely to help the team. (ie I wouldn't have picked Fred Davis, who, while a good player is wasted because we have a Pro Bowl caliber TE ahead of him).
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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby brad7686 » Thu Jan 13, 2011 2:00 pm

yupchagee wrote:
Not best athlete, I think you mean best football player. I'm in favor of taking the player most likely to help the team. (ie I wouldn't have picked Fred Davis, who, while a good player is wasted because we have a Pro Bowl caliber TE ahead of him).


No i meant best athlete but yea i would take position into consideration.
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Re: Draft is a Crapshoot?

Postby DarthMonk » Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:07 pm

yupchagee wrote:
brad7686 wrote:That's 3 or 4 players give or take that are worth a crap from rounds 2-3 over a 9 year span.

They do draft well in the first round though. And If you actually have 2nd-3rd rounders every year, unlike the skins, you may have some Mike Wallace's in there somewhere. After the first round, the draft IS a crapshoot. It's smart to just take the best athlete you can find IMO after the first round.



Not best athlete, I think you mean best football player. I'm in favor of taking the player most likely to help the team. (ie I wouldn't have picked Fred Davis, who, while a good player is wasted because we have a Pro Bowl caliber TE ahead of him).


Does anyone besides Vinne think Fred Davis was the best athlete available?

Oh. and it's more like 95% on guys making the team and then playing for years.

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