Baylor QB Robert Griffin III Beats Andrew Luck Wins Heisman

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Postby SkinsJock » Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:47 am

I'm hoping we get Barkley but either RG III or Barkley will be good NFL QBs for a long time

I hope that we get a good QB and I would NOT base any credence AT ALL - in selecting a QB that suits what Kyle wants

we need a good QB that can be the Redskins QB for many years after Kyle is gone
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Postby skinsfan#33 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:28 am

Countertrey wrote:I don't see either of these young QB's missing. Both will have successful careers... One of them will have that career with the Redskins. Hail.


I really hope one of them finds his way to the Skins (I'm starting to lean towards RGIII), but one thing to caution is what NFL stats say.

Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so). Of course so-so would be an improvement in our QB situatuion.

There have been so many good first round QBs lately that I'm afraid the tide will swing back th other way and it kind of looks like it started with Gabbert.

The fear that 2 or 3 of these guys won't be franchise QBs makes me want to lean in the direction of RGIII. The worst we get with him is an extremely athetic, hard working, "super Smart" player. He may not be the next coming of Peyton, Johnny U, or Slinging Sammy, but he will have the tools to win us a LOT OF GAMES.
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
(It is time to roll the dice) Tai'shar Manetheren

"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby SkinsJock » Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:44 pm

skinsfan#33 wrote:
Countertrey wrote:I don't see either of these young QB's missing. Both will have successful careers... One of them will have that career with the Redskins. Hail.
I really hope one of them finds his way to the Skins (I'm starting to lean towards RGIII), but one thing to caution is what NFL stats say.
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so). Of course so-so would be an improvement in our QB situatuion.
There have been so many good first round QBs lately that I'm afraid the tide will swing back the other way and it kind of looks like it started with Gabbert.
The fear that 2 or 3 of these guys won't be franchise QBs makes me want to lean in the direction of RGIII. The worst we get with him is an extremely athetic, hard working, "super Smart" player. He may not be the next coming of Peyton, Johnny U, or Slinging Sammy, but he will have the tools to win us a LOT OF GAMES.


:shock: this is amazing to me - 2 of the top 4 NFL QBs that are drafted will 'flop'

I'm not sure exactly who the top 4 are but 2 of them are Luck and Barkley or Griffin - I just find it hard to fathom that any of those guys are going to 'flop' - now the fact that all 3 might not be good QBs is one thing - to intimate that 1 is going to be a 'flop' AND to base that on stats just makes me mad
I think that all 3 will help the teams and offenses they play with over the time they spend in the NFL

I highly doubt that there are ANY NFL scouts OR FO people on decent programs that think about what the past stats say about the prospects they are considering coming out of college

I can hear it now - "we can't take that guy, he'd be the 3rd LB picked in the 2nd round ... 'stats' have shown that the 3rd LB taken in the 2nd round is a bust every time ... "
ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME

this is probably the kind of thinking that Dumb & Dumber used here
"Let's not use draft picks - so many of them are just huge gambles, let's give them to another team"





I'll make one other comment here - the most important thing that this FO does differently that the previous guys in charge here is that they, FOR THE MOST PART, have added players that help make this franchise deeper, younger AND most importantly, have helped make the other players around them better

this is key - we often hear about how many players in the top 2 rounds do not fulfill their perceived potential - BUT you've got to appreciate the effort and drive to be better by the many players that are taken in rounds 3 thru 7 and who become big time NFL players
THat IS THE KEY HERE with this FO - they have to keep adding those low round picks that are really diamonds in the rough
When you're dead you don't know you're dead, it's only difficult for others.
It's kind of the same as when you're stupid!

memo to Dan Snyder: Let the football people just do their jobs - you need to manage your own mess

#33
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Postby skinsfan#33 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:31 pm

SkinsJock wrote:
skinsfan#33 wrote:
Countertrey wrote:I don't see either of these young QB's missing. Both will have successful careers... One of them will have that career with the Redskins. Hail.
I really hope one of them finds his way to the Skins (I'm starting to lean towards RGIII), but one thing to caution is what NFL stats say.
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so). Of course so-so would be an improvement in our QB situatuion.
There have been so many good first round QBs lately that I'm afraid the tide will swing back the other way and it kind of looks like it started with Gabbert.
The fear that 2 or 3 of these guys won't be franchise QBs makes me want to lean in the direction of RGIII. The worst we get with him is an extremely athetic, hard working, "super Smart" player. He may not be the next coming of Peyton, Johnny U, or Slinging Sammy, but he will have the tools to win us a LOT OF GAMES.


:shock: this is amazing to me - 2 of the top 4 NFL QBs that are drafted will 'flop'

I'm not sure exactly who the top 4 are but 2 of them are Luck and Barkley or Griffin - I just find it hard to fathom that any of those guys are going to 'flop' - now the fact that all 3 might not be good QBs is one thing - to intimate that 1 is going to be a 'flop' AND to base that on stats just makes me mad
I think that all 3 will help the teams and offenses they play with over the time they spend in the NFL

I highly doubt that there are ANY NFL scouts OR FO people on decent programs that think about what the past stats say about the prospects they are considering coming out of college

I can hear it now - "we can't take that guy, he'd be the 3rd LB picked in the 2nd round ... 'stats' have shown that the 3rd LB taken in the 2nd round is a bust every time ... "
ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME



No I'm NOT freaking kidding you. No I don't mean the first two guys will be good and the next two will suck, I don't know how you got that out of what I posted.

What I'm saying is if you look back at the first round QBs drafted over the past 20 years more than half of them flop, another quarter are just OK and less than 25% (actually much less) of the QBs taken are legitimist franchise guys. Of course this probably holds true with other positions to some extent too.

NO I’M NOT SAYING THAT TWO WILL BE BUST! What I'm saying is the olds say two of them will likely be flops, busts, failures, or whatever label you want to put on a QB that can’t play.

You would have to be a moron not to acknowledge the risk. And you would be even more of a fool if you don't think the teams aren't aware of this!

So, no, the team won't be swayed by the fact that half of the QBs that are drafted in the first round are likely to be bust, but I guarantee the teams know the statistics on draft successes and failures at each and every position. And they will weigh that risk!

This is the list for 1st round pick over the years from 1990 to 2009. I didn’t include 2010 and 2011 because it is just too soon to judge them. You tell me which player are legit franchise QBs and which ones are so-so and which are bust:


Year
2009
Matthew Stafford

2009
Mark Sanchez

2009
Josh Freeman

2008
Matt Ryan

2008
Joe Flacco

2007
JaMarcus Russell

2007
Brady Quinn

2006
Vince Young

2006
Matt Leinart

2006
Jay Cutler

2005
Alex Smith

2005
Aaron Rodgers

2005
Jason Campbell

2004
Eli Manning

2004
Philip Rivers

2004
Ben Roethlisberger

2004
J.P. Losman

2003
Carson Palmer

2003
Byron Leftwich

2003
Kyle Boller

2003
Rex Grossman

2002
David Carr

2002
Joey Harrington

2002
Patrick Ramsey

2001
Michael Vick

2000
Chad Pennington

1999
Tim Couch

1999
Donovan McNabb

1999
Akili Smith

1999
Daunte Culpepper

1999
Cade McNown

1998
Peyton Manning

1998
Ryan Leaf

1997
Jim Druckenmiller

1995
Steve McNair

1995
Kerry Collins

1994
Heath Shuler

1994
Trent Dilfer

1993
Drew Bledsoe

1993
Rick Mirer

1992
David Klingler

1992
Tommy Maddox

1991
Dan McGwire

1991
Todd Marinovich

1990
Jeff George

1990
Andre Ware
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
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"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby SkinsJock » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:02 pm

skinsfan#33 wrote:I really hope one of them finds his way to the Skins (I'm starting to lean towards RGIII), but one thing to caution is what NFL stats say.
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so).
Of course so-so would be an improvement in our QB situatuion.
There have been so many good first round QBs lately that I'm afraid the tide will swing back the other way and it kind of looks like it started with Gabbert.
The fear that 2 or 3 of these guys won't be franchise QBs makes me want to lean in the direction of RGIII. The worst we get with him is an extremely athetic, hard working, "super Smart" player. He may not be the next coming of Peyton, Johnny U, or Slinging Sammy, but he will have the tools to win us a LOT OF GAMES.


skinsfan#33 wrote:No I don't mean the first two guys will be good and the next two will suck, I don't know how you got that out of what I posted.

You posted
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop


then you posted
I’M NOT SAYING THAT TWO WILL BE BUST! What I'm saying is the odds say two of them will likely be flops, busts, failures, or whatever label you want to put on a QB that can’t play.


:shock: I'm sorry but I took it to mean what you posted, is all

ROTFALMAO but now I'm not sure what that was ROTFALMAO

btw - RG III will take a while to get ready to play so you'll have a few months to figure it all out
When you're dead you don't know you're dead, it's only difficult for others.
It's kind of the same as when you're stupid!

memo to Dan Snyder: Let the football people just do their jobs - you need to manage your own mess

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Postby skinsfan#33 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:05 am

SkinsJock wrote:
skinsfan#33 wrote:I really hope one of them finds his way to the Skins (I'm starting to lean towards RGIII), but one thing to caution is what NFL stats say.
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so).
Of course so-so would be an improvement in our QB situatuion.
There have been so many good first round QBs lately that I'm afraid the tide will swing back the other way and it kind of looks like it started with Gabbert.
The fear that 2 or 3 of these guys won't be franchise QBs makes me want to lean in the direction of RGIII. The worst we get with him is an extremely athetic, hard working, "super Smart" player. He may not be the next coming of Peyton, Johnny U, or Slinging Sammy, but he will have the tools to win us a LOT OF GAMES.


skinsfan#33 wrote:No I don't mean the first two guys will be good and the next two will suck, I don't know how you got that out of what I posted.

You posted
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop


then you posted
I’M NOT SAYING THAT TWO WILL BE BUST! What I'm saying is the odds say two of them will
likely be flops, busts, failures, or whatever label you want
to put on a QB that can’t play.



:shock: I'm sorry but I took it to mean what you posted, is all

ROTFALMAO but now I'm not sure what that was ROTFALMAO

btw - RG III will take a while to get ready to play so you'll have a few months to figure it all out


I did mean what I posted. I'm having a hard time understanding why you can't get the fact that I was talking about the odds or the average. I didn't think I need to insult your intelligence by spelling out out like I was talking to a 5 year old.

Let me try.

If you toss a coin 10 times the stats says it will come up heads 5 times. Now does that mean it WILL come up head 5 times? No, of course not. But what it does mean is if you flip that coin enough half of the time it will be heads and half of the time it will be tails.

The stats say, bases on past draft history that most of the QB selected won't end up being a franchise QB and the majority will be flops.

I gave you the list. You decide who you consider a franchise QB, an average QB, or a flop. Make up any list you want, but it will have over half of them being flops.

So, half of the first round QBs that are selected in the first round will likely flop, or the stats say the odds are they will flop.

I hope this helps, because I don't think I can make what I was trying to say any more clear!
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RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby SkinsJock » Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:26 am

no worries

I just do not agree with the words that YOU posted:

Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so)


I understand that stats show that 50% of the QBs will 'flop'

I just do NOT agree that this applies to the top 4 QBs this year

I do NOT agree that NFL guys will consider that % with the top 4 QBs this year or any year




we shall see soon :lol:
When you're dead you don't know you're dead, it's only difficult for others.
It's kind of the same as when you're stupid!

memo to Dan Snyder: Let the football people just do their jobs - you need to manage your own mess

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Postby CanesSkins26 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:53 am

SkinsJock wrote:
skinsfan#33 wrote:
Countertrey wrote:I don't see either of these young QB's missing. Both will have successful careers... One of them will have that career with the Redskins. Hail.
I really hope one of them finds his way to the Skins (I'm starting to lean towards RGIII), but one thing to caution is what NFL stats say.
Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so). Of course so-so would be an improvement in our QB situatuion.
There have been so many good first round QBs lately that I'm afraid the tide will swing back the other way and it kind of looks like it started with Gabbert.
The fear that 2 or 3 of these guys won't be franchise QBs makes me want to lean in the direction of RGIII. The worst we get with him is an extremely athetic, hard working, "super Smart" player. He may not be the next coming of Peyton, Johnny U, or Slinging Sammy, but he will have the tools to win us a LOT OF GAMES.


:shock: this is amazing to me - 2 of the top 4 NFL QBs that are drafted will 'flop'

I'm not sure exactly who the top 4 are but 2 of them are Luck and Barkley or Griffin - I just find it hard to fathom that any of those guys are going to 'flop' - now the fact that all 3 might not be good QBs is one thing - to intimate that 1 is going to be a 'flop' AND to base that on stats just makes me mad
I think that all 3 will help the teams and offenses they play with over the time they spend in the NFL

I highly doubt that there are ANY NFL scouts OR FO people on decent programs that think about what the past stats say about the prospects they are considering coming out of college

I can hear it now - "we can't take that guy, he'd be the 3rd LB picked in the 2nd round ... 'stats' have shown that the 3rd LB taken in the 2nd round is a bust every time ... "
ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME

this is probably the kind of thinking that Dumb & Dumber used here
"Let's not use draft picks - so many of them are just huge gambles, let's give them to another team"





I'll make one other comment here - the most important thing that this FO does differently that the previous guys in charge here is that they, FOR THE MOST PART, have added players that help make this franchise deeper, younger AND most importantly, have helped make the other players around them better

this is key - we often hear about how many players in the top 2 rounds do not fulfill their perceived potential - BUT you've got to appreciate the effort and drive to be better by the many players that are taken in rounds 3 thru 7 and who become big time NFL players
THat IS THE KEY HERE with this FO - they have to keep adding those low round picks that are really diamonds in the rough


RGIII has the greatest chance of flopping because he has the most work to do. Doesn't really play under center, tends to bail out of the pocket too soon, needs to work on his footwork, etc. The transition from spread to pro style is a lot more difficult than people think.
Suck and Luck

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Postby skinsfan#33 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:58 am

SkinsJock wrote:no worries

I just do not agree with the words that YOU posted:

Stats say that two of the top four QBs will flop, one will succeed, and one will be OK to good (or so-so)


I understand that stats show that 50% of the QBs will 'flop'

I just do NOT agree that this applies to the top 4 QBs this year

I do NOT agree that NFL guys will consider that % with the top 4 QBs this year or any year


we shall see soon :lol:


I agree, that it may not hold true with the top for on this draft and never intended to imply that it will. I was just trying to point out that the odds are that it could. Maybe I did a poor job of conveying that thought.

I was just trying to point out that historically two of the guys probably will flop. Personally I hope they on turn out to be franchise QBs, but it just isn't realistic to expect that.

I hope none of them fail and they all buck the odds, but I'm not holding my breath.
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
(It is time to roll the dice) Tai'shar Manetheren

"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby SkinsJock » Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:39 pm

no worries - I take things too literally too often

It's a fact (not just a stat) that a high percentage of top rated college QBs do not do well in the NFL

I see that Canes thinks that RG III might not work out
I'd think that he's going to have a great attitude and be V motivated to do well

We are most likely not getting Luck or Barkley - Griffin III might be our QB - that's a good thing
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It's kind of the same as when you're stupid!

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Postby Countertrey » Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:59 pm

CanesSkin26 said:
RGIII has the greatest chance of flopping because he has the most work to do. Doesn't really play under center, tends to bail out of the pocket too soon, needs to work on his footwork, etc. The transition from spread to pro style is a lot more difficult than people think.


This is true. Just ask Colt Brennan. The reality is, RGIII is an exceptionally intelligent football player (how often do you hear of a player using the last year of eligibility to earn a Masters degree). I think he has demonstrated that he has the capacity to make the transition. Unlike most spread quarterbacks (and despite Canes concern that he bails from the pocket too soon), there is film of Griffin extending, continuing to look for receivers, after a play has broken. While capable of making the play with his feet, he is still looking for receivers. This provides the basis for optimism that he can learn to operate under center, because this is the primary skill that must be learned... reading the defense while moving back to the pocket... the very similar to the skill used in extending the play from the spread.

Could he flop? Sure. Even Luck is not guaranteed to be the next coming of Joe Montana... There were questions about who was the best quarterback in the 1998 draft... Peyton Manning? Ryan Leaf? Both were billed as sure fire franchise quarterbacks, with the only question being, "which will get to the Hall of Fame first?". How'd that work out?

On the other hand, not being the first, or even the second... selection is not an impediment to quarterback greatness... Tom Brady is the most popular example...

But, I think this is truly a deep quarterback class, and there is an excellent chance that there could be as many as 5 "franchise quarterbacks" selected... and that RGIII and Barkley, AND Jones are likely to stick, and start... and be very effective.

In Griffin's case, though... that might take a bit longer than the others. As Canes points out... he has some learning to do... that Luck and Barkley do not.
"That's a clown question, bro"
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Postby SkinsJock » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:38 am

given that we are most likely NOT getting Luck or Barkley - we should take R Griffin III


it would be nice to have a QB that could start soon
- it's MORE important that we select a QB that can be good for 10-12 years or more

we do not want to be like the Rams - great QB with a great RB - they're at 2-12 and it's NOT because of the HC

we need to continue what we have done here and hopefully have another great draft

this FO has made some big mistakes at QB
- that will end with the drafting of R Griffin III - the character issues and upbringing are HUGE
When you're dead you don't know you're dead, it's only difficult for others.
It's kind of the same as when you're stupid!

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Postby Countertrey » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:32 pm

SJ said:
the character issues and upbringing are HUGE


I do have to admit... I have a bias toward the children of soldiers... :wink:

but, it sure doesn't hurt that he looks like he walks the walk.
"That's a clown question, bro"
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
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Postby SkinsJock » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:41 pm

I think that some are looking at the offense and other QBs and how they have adapted when reaching the NFL

I really like this kid's background and he will be very determined and very coachable - he will be a good NFL QB given the right help
When you're dead you don't know you're dead, it's only difficult for others.
It's kind of the same as when you're stupid!

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Postby CanesSkins26 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:59 pm

Countertrey wrote:CanesSkin26 said:
RGIII has the greatest chance of flopping because he has the most work to do. Doesn't really play under center, tends to bail out of the pocket too soon, needs to work on his footwork, etc. The transition from spread to pro style is a lot more difficult than people think.


This is true. Just ask Colt Brennan. The reality is, RGIII is an exceptionally intelligent football player (how often do you hear of a player using the last year of eligibility to earn a Masters degree). I think he has demonstrated that he has the capacity to make the transition. Unlike most spread quarterbacks (and despite Canes concern that he bails from the pocket too soon), there is film of Griffin extending, continuing to look for receivers, after a play has broken. While capable of making the play with his feet, he is still looking for receivers. This provides the basis for optimism that he can learn to operate under center, because this is the primary skill that must be learned... reading the defense while moving back to the pocket... the very similar to the skill used in extending the play from the spread.

Could he flop? Sure. Even Luck is not guaranteed to be the next coming of Joe Montana... There were questions about who was the best quarterback in the 1998 draft... Peyton Manning? Ryan Leaf? Both were billed as sure fire franchise quarterbacks, with the only question being, "which will get to the Hall of Fame first?". How'd that work out?

On the other hand, not being the first, or even the second... selection is not an impediment to quarterback greatness... Tom Brady is the most popular example...

But, I think this is truly a deep quarterback class, and there is an excellent chance that there could be as many as 5 "franchise quarterbacks" selected... and that RGIII and Barkley, AND Jones are likely to stick, and start... and be very effective.

In Griffin's case, though... that might take a bit longer than the others. As Canes points out... he has some learning to do... that Luck and Barkley do not.


Good points about RGIII. I think you're right about him being able to adapt to the pro game, it will just take some time.

Do you think that Kyle/Mike would be willing to adapt their offense for RGIII and go through the process of developing him into a pro style qb? Impossible to say for certain, but I think that given next year will be year 3 of Mike's contract, they will want to go with the qb that is most ready to play in the NFL.
Suck and Luck

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