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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:10 am

JansenFan wrote:I completely agree that it is much different. I am just surprised that he's not very successful at it.

I know what you're saying, you would think a big goal scorer would be able to make the moves to score in the shootout.
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Postby Sir_Monk » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:16 am

I know what you're saying, you would think a big goal scorer would be able to make the moves to score in the shootout.


It reminds me of how there are goal keepers in soccer who are avg in net but great at stopping penalty kicks.
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Postby GSPODS » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:28 am

In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.

Not to mention the fact that the closer a shooter gets to the goaltender, the smaller those one, three and five holes appear to be. In Ovechkin's case, he leads the NHL in shots on goal as well as goals and points. It's a numbers game with Alex. The more chances he gets, the more damage he does. And he seldomn misses twice. But in a shootout, he only gets one chance.

My 2 cents

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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:31 am

GSPODS wrote:In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.

Not to mention the fact that the closer a shooter gets to the goaltender, the smaller those one, three and five holes appear to be. In Ovechkin's case, he leads the NHL in shots on goal as well as goals and points. It's a numbers game with Alex. The more chances he gets, the more damage he does. And he seldomn misses twice. But in a shootout, he only gets one chance.

My 2 cents

Good point. I mean I just made it, but still...
Groucho: Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him

Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

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Postby Steve Spurrier III » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:38 am

GSPODS wrote:...although shooting first should, in theory, show the other shooters on your team where to shoot the puck.


How so? You get the same amount of time between you first shooter and second shooter regardless of whether your team goes first or second. There's no tactical advantage. If any exists, it's psychological.

GSPODS wrote:I'll be curious to see what stats you are able to find on the shootout home and away records versus the shootout first shot versus last shot records.


I found this web page, where somebody tracks shootout statistics. He doesn't have any for this season, but here are the breakdowns for the 2006-2007 season:

Code: Select all
Total SO: 163

Home Team: 78-85 (0.479)
Road Team: 85-78 (0.521)

Record of team shooting first: 85-78 (0.521)
Record of team shooting second: 78-85 (0.479)

Times Home went 1st: 104 (63.8%)

Record of home team when electing to shoot first: 52-52 (0.500)
Record of home team when electing to shoot second: 26-33 (0.441)


For whatever reason, teams shooting first were more successful. And while home team had a losing record, in 2005-2006 they had a winning record (75-70). It's pretty much a coin flip.

I wonder if momentum plays a role. Perhaps looking at the third period, and see if winning the third period made a team more likely to win the shootout. I think it's more likely that it's pretty much even - like others have said, the shootout is so different than the game itself. I agree it's not really a fair way to end the game.
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Postby GSPODS » Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:39 am

KazooSkinsFan wrote:
GSPODS wrote:In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.

Not to mention the fact that the closer a shooter gets to the goaltender, the smaller those one, three and five holes appear to be. In Ovechkin's case, he leads the NHL in shots on goal as well as goals and points. It's a numbers game with Alex. The more chances he gets, the more damage he does. And he seldomn misses twice. But in a shootout, he only gets one chance.

My 2 cents

Good point. I mean I just made it, but still...


What I read in your post was a comparison to one-on-one basketball. I don't play one-on-one basketball with a shot clock, and the person I'm playing doesn't usually goaltend by sitting in the net. I guess I missed the relevance of the comparison.

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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Wed Mar 26, 2008 6:39 pm

GSPODS wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:
GSPODS wrote:In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.

Not to mention the fact that the closer a shooter gets to the goaltender, the smaller those one, three and five holes appear to be. In Ovechkin's case, he leads the NHL in shots on goal as well as goals and points. It's a numbers game with Alex. The more chances he gets, the more damage he does. And he seldomn misses twice. But in a shootout, he only gets one chance.

My 2 cents

Good point. I mean I just made it, but still...


What I read in your post was a comparison to one-on-one basketball. I don't play one-on-one basketball with a shot clock, and the person I'm playing doesn't usually goaltend by sitting in the net. I guess I missed the relevance of the comparison.


kaz wrote:in the shootout by the same account there's no one blocking the goalie. So besides shooting accuracy there is recognizing the flow of the game and the players and putting it in the right spot to score that way


GSPODS wrote:In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.


OK, completely different point. :roll:
Groucho: Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him

Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

Twain: A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way

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Postby GSPODS » Thu Mar 27, 2008 7:46 am

KazooSkinsFan wrote:
GSPODS wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:
GSPODS wrote:In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.

Not to mention the fact that the closer a shooter gets to the goaltender, the smaller those one, three and five holes appear to be. In Ovechkin's case, he leads the NHL in shots on goal as well as goals and points. It's a numbers game with Alex. The more chances he gets, the more damage he does. And he seldomn misses twice. But in a shootout, he only gets one chance.

My 2 cents

Good point. I mean I just made it, but still...


What I read in your post was a comparison to one-on-one basketball. I don't play one-on-one basketball with a shot clock, and the person I'm playing doesn't usually goaltend by sitting in the net. I guess I missed the relevance of the comparison.


kaz wrote:in the shootout by the same account there's no one blocking the goalie. So besides shooting accuracy there is recognizing the flow of the game and the players and putting it in the right spot to score that way


GSPODS wrote:In a shootout, there is no passing, no screening the goaltender, no moving the goaltender out of position ahead of the shot, and there is a time limit.


OK, completely different point. :roll:


How's this for a point:
Ovechkin has 61 goals on 421 shots on goal, for an accuracy of 14.5%.
So, for the purposes of shootout goals, Ovechkin should score on 14.5% of his opportunities, based upon his shooting accuaracy. Ovechkin has 1 goal on 6 shootout attempts for an accuracy rating of 16.7%, slightly higher than his regular shooting percentage.

For comparison, Semin and Kozlov each have 3 goals on 7 shootout attempts for an accuarcy rating of 42.9%. Semin has 23 goals on 169 shot attempts for an accuracy of 13.6%. Kozlov has 15 goals on 196 shot attempts for an accuracy of 7.7%.

Sidney Crosby has 2 goals on 7 attempts for an accuracy rating of 28.6%. Crosby has 22 goals on 158 shot attempts for an accuracy of 13.9%.

Should Ovechkin's shootout shooting percentage be higher? Probably, since players with less accurate overall shooting percentages have higher shootout scoring percentages. Ovechkin should also have at least as many, if not more shootout attempts than any other Capitals player, but the stats show he doesn't. 2 for 7 looks better than 1 for 6 but Semin and Kozlov have seven attempts and Ovechkin has six. There are 31 NHL players with more shootout attempts than any Capital, and 46 NHL players with more shootout attempts than Alex Ovechkin. It should also be noted that Russian SuperLeague hockey does not use the shootout so perhaps Ovechkin's numbers are partially related to his lack of experience with shootout attempts and / or penalty shot attempts.

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Postby Bob 0119 » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:34 am

Back to the +/- discussion, I've heard it argued in the media about whether or not this is a truly useful stat or not. The general idea I got from it was that it was an interesting "gee-whiz" stat, but not a very practical judge of a player's individual ability on it's own. As stated previously by other posters, the +/- fills in the picture when used with the players other stats (ice time, goals, and assists). I think it's a better defensive stat, than an offensive one (like goals and assists).

As for the shootout stuff, perhaps some players shoot better when they can focus on just the goalie, and not worry about avoiding defenders or the back-check. Ovie may be better when he's trying to create something, but pound for pound as far as individual accuracy, there may be players that are more accurate, but lose that accuracy to distraction in a real game situation.

I loved his shot attempt at the All-Star game, but I think he has to raise his stich above the cross bar to do it. While it was legal for that contest, probably isn't legal in a real game situation. Though it looks like he is still practicing it. I noticed he scooped the puck up the other night and started bouncing it a couple of times before flipping it to the ref!

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Postby Bob 0119 » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:37 am

Stich? I meant "stick", but I suppose you could still pronounce what I typed originally that way! :lol:

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Postby GSPODS » Thu Mar 27, 2008 9:55 am

1 Viktor Kozlov WSH C +25
2 Alexander Ovechkin WSH L +24
3 Nicklas Backstrom WSH C +11
4 Jeff Schultz WSH D 67 +7
5 Brian Pothier WSH D +5
6 Tom Poti WSH D +5
7 Eric Fehr WSH R +4
8 Quintin Laing WSH +4
9 Boyd Gordon WSH C +3
10 Milan Jurcina WSH D +3
11 Joe Motzko WSH R +1
12 Shaone Morrisonn WSH D +1
13 David Steckel WSH C 0
14 Christopher Bourque WSH L 0
15 Mike Green WSH D 0
16 Chris Clark WSH R 0
17 John Erskine WSH D -1
18 Sami Lepisto WSH D 7 -1
19 Matt Bradley WSH R -1
20 Matt Cooke WSH L -3
21 Steve Eminger WSH D -4
22 Brooks Laich WSH C -5
23 Tomas Fleischmann WSH L -8
24 Donald Brashear WSH L -8
25 Sergei Fedorov WSH C -9
26 Michael Nylander WSH C -19
27 Alexander Semin WSH L -20

We can see from this list that the +/- rating shows a player's ability to play "two ways", offensively and defensively. The higher the plus, the better the player is at playing both ends of the ice.

So, while Kozlov and Ovechkin are excellent two-way players, Semin is pitiful in the defensive zone. Does that mean the Caps should waive or trade Semin? No, and hell no. I think this stat is over-rated by the media. I haven't heard a coach or a GM ever say anything about using this stat to determine whether or not to sign, draft, waive or trade a hockey player.

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