Julio Jones - Draft or Trade Poll

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If Julio Jones is availabe at #10 would you draft him or trade the pick

Draft the Receiver
4
29%
Trade pick to Rams
10
71%
 
Total votes : 14
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Postby CanesSkins26 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:05 pm

Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:I don't trade that pick. If you look at most of the projections/analyses of this draft, the general consensus is that there are about 9-10 elite prospects in this draft. While 10 to 14 might not seem like a big drop, the difference in the caliber of player that were are able to get if we stay put versus trading down could be significant. I'd also be more inclined to do this draft if I had confidence that our front office could do something meaningful with that 3rd round pick that we would get from the Rams. However, under Allen the bucs absolutely sucked in the draft and Shanny had his fare share of drafting issues as well with the Broncos.


OK, what do you mean "drafting issues" for Shanny?

Here is a head to head comarison of Shanny (Broncos), Belichek, Steelers Organization and the Redskins Organization from 1999-2008 for Shanny and 2000-08 for the others. Shanny's overall success rate was a 37% to Belichek's - 29% - Steelers - 39% - Redskins - 29 %.
Note Shanny tended to have more success from the 3rd to 7th rounds.
His success in the first round is scary being on par with the Redskins, but his second round is on par with others but easily distancing Belichek.
So against the two of the top teams of the past ten years, Shanny is better than Belichek and on par with the Steelers. What issues?

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread. ... nd-Colbert)-(and-the-Snyder-Redskins)

Of course that is one guy's data, but the key is that he used the same criteria for each team or coach. Here is another guy doing the draft success rate period. I include his just for a comparison of Shanny's first round 61% to the overall league rate this guy found - 50%. (The criteria of the two research projects is different - my point here is just to give some prospective on Shanny's 61%)

Per our previous article, first round success rate over the last ten years was an exact 50/50 split, with a 50% success rate.


http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/articl ... _Value.jsp


That analysis is extremely flawed. For example, calling Karl Paymah a successful draft choice is a joke. Shanny had some success with offensive players, but looking at that analysis, Shanny was horrible at drafting defensive players. Since 2001, DJ Williams and Dumervil are the only two impactful defensive players that Shanny drafted.
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Postby SkinsJock » Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:18 pm

One thing I hope is that we do NOT use the top 2 picks that we currently have on offensive players
if we take Jones, I think it's a mistake to take the QB with the 41st pick

#1 - we need to help our defense with this draft and to do that I think we need to take a defensive player first OR with the next pick

#2 - we need a QB

#3 - we need to add to our draft picks
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Postby frankcal20 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:22 pm

No way I want any of those cheater's on my team.

JUST SAY NO TO THE BABY BLUE!!!

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Postby Red_One43 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:44 pm

CanesSkins26 wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:I don't trade that pick. If you look at most of the projections/analyses of this draft, the general consensus is that there are about 9-10 elite prospects in this draft. While 10 to 14 might not seem like a big drop, the difference in the caliber of player that were are able to get if we stay put versus trading down could be significant. I'd also be more inclined to do this draft if I had confidence that our front office could do something meaningful with that 3rd round pick that we would get from the Rams. However, under Allen the bucs absolutely sucked in the draft and Shanny had his fare share of drafting issues as well with the Broncos.


OK, what do you mean "drafting issues" for Shanny?

Here is a head to head comarison of Shanny (Broncos), Belichek, Steelers Organization and the Redskins Organization from 1999-2008 for Shanny and 2000-08 for the others. Shanny's overall success rate was a 37% to Belichek's - 29% - Steelers - 39% - Redskins - 29 %.
Note Shanny tended to have more success from the 3rd to 7th rounds.
His success in the first round is scary being on par with the Redskins, but his second round is on par with others but easily distancing Belichek.
So against the two of the top teams of the past ten years, Shanny is better than Belichek and on par with the Steelers. What issues?

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread. ... nd-Colbert)-(and-the-Snyder-Redskins)

Of course that is one guy's data, but the key is that he used the same criteria for each team or coach. Here is another guy doing the draft success rate period. I include his just for a comparison of Shanny's first round 61% to the overall league rate this guy found - 50%. (The criteria of the two research projects is different - my point here is just to give some prospective on Shanny's 61%)

Per our previous article, first round success rate over the last ten years was an exact 50/50 split, with a 50% success rate.


http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/articl ... _Value.jsp


That analysis is extremely flawed. For example, calling Karl Paymah a successful draft choice is a joke. Shanny had some success with offensive players, but looking at that analysis, Shanny was horrible at drafting defensive players. Since 2001, DJ Williams and Dumervil are the only two impactful defensive players that Shanny drafted.


OK, sometimes ya just can't trust your sources, but what source are you using that says Shanny has drafting issues? Anybody's analysis is going to have bias because there is no agreement as to when a guy can be considered a bust or success. Now, how does your "since 2001" analysis of Shanahan's defensive picks stack up with other teams/coaches? Don't forget to at 4th rounder Perry Riley to your list. He is the real deal and quite a steal. AND did you really mean to omit Darrent Williamss (drafted in 2005)? Had he not been killed he had star cornerback written all over him?

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Postby Red_One43 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:50 pm

TCIYM wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.


Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade Cooley just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).


With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.


Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.


Mayock says:
"I think the kid has rare and elite skills for a defensive end in the National Football League," NFL Network senior draft analyst Mike Mayock said of Quinn (who is Mayock's No. 1-rated defensive end) on Path to the Draft, though he still thinks he projects better as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB.


http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ft-stock/1

For our argument, you failed to address my point that Quinn's coverage skills are unknown. Thus Quinn is a project at OLB.
Think back to Orakpo's rookie year. To maximize his talent, he was placed in the DE position where he got most of his sacks. You can't do that with Quinn on a 3-4 team. Orakpo isn't the best cover LB either. He is still learning. So, with Quinn, you might have to OLBs trying to learn how to cover. Von Miller stayed in school to coincentrate on his coverage skills and he was an OLB.

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Postby CanesSkins26 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 4:19 pm

TCIYM wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.


Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade Cooley just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).


With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.


Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.


He has upside, but he did not produce in college against anything but the bottom feeder teams. To me, that is a major red flag. Why would you want to take a risk on a player that struggled against any decent competition that he has faced?
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Postby CanesSkins26 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 4:25 pm

OK, sometimes ya just can't trust your sources, but what source are you using that says Shanny has drafting issues? Anybody's analysis is going to have bias because there is no agreement as to when a guy can be considered a bust or success.


You don't need sources to realize that Shanny struggled drafting defense in Denver. Just look at the lack of starting caliber defensive players that the Broncos drafted while he was in charge.

Don't forget to at 4th rounder Perry Riley to your list. He is the real deal and quite a steal.


Riley hasn't done anything yet in the NFL. If he turns into a player Shanny will get credit.

AND did you really mean to omit Darrent Williamss (drafted in 2005)? Had he not been killed he had star cornerback written all over him?


I left Williams off on purpose. He unfortunately didn't play long enough to really be able to evaluate him as a player. He did show signs of promise, though.[/quote]
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Postby Red_One43 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 4:27 pm

CanesSkins26 wrote:
TCIYM wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.


Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade Cooley just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).


With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.


Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.


He has upside, but he did not produce in college against anything but the bottom feeder teams. To me, that is a major red flag. Why would you want to take a risk on a player that struggled against any decent competition that he has faced?


I agree with his upside, he could be the next DeMarco Ware. Did you see any evidence of coverage skills when you saw him play?

But he would need to develop coverage skills, and as it stands there is a feeling his run defense also could use some improvement.

http://www.draftamerica.com/robert-quinn.php
Last edited by Red_One43 on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Red_One43 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 4:40 pm

CanesSkins26 wrote:You don't need sources to realize that Shanny struggled drafting defense in Denver. Just look at the lack of starting caliber defensive players that the Broncos drafted while he was in charge.


How does that stack up against other Coachs/GMs who have been drafting since 2001? From what Look at on that guy's chart, Shanny is right there in the mix as one of the top drafting minds. The draft is a crap shoot, but some teams do better than others and the Steelers are one of them. Based on your "impact" designation, I don't see where Shanny is that much behind the Steelers.

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Postby 1niksder » Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:36 pm

Red_One43 wrote:I voted to trade #10, because I want to trade the pick, but not for #14 and the rams 3rd rounder. I would get a little creative here. Ask for their 4th rounder in additon to the third rounder and offer one of our lowest 5th. The goal is get a at least a 3rd and 4th rounder. We already have a creative deal relationship with the Rams. The Carriker trade and Hall Davis for Dennis Morris rookie swap and cut trade. I
If I can't get multiple picks, I am drafting Jones at 10 if he is there.
10th pick + 5th round pick for the Rams 14th pick + 2nd round pick... :wink:
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Postby Red_One43 » Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:40 pm

Here is more on Quinn being in the mold of DeMarcus Ware as Mayock believes as far as stature.

Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year honors, started at left end for Troy but also played rush end and weak-side linebacker.


http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football ... kers_x.htm

The scouting reports that I am finding saw Ware as an OLB. That is not the case for Quinn. He seems like a better fit at DE with possiblities as an OLB. Again Unknown commodity for the Skins (Of course from a fans perspective it is unknown. Haslett may see something the scouting reports don't see).

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/ds ... genpos=OLB

As you see, Ware had played OLB so it was known whether or not he could cover. Some DEs cannot make that move to stand up LB. Andre Carter was one of them. Not saying that Quinn and Andre are one in the same, but I am saying if I guy has a mindset that he has to have his hand in the dirt, then he will alway struggle with OLB. Do we know Quinn's mindset. Is he worth the gamble? I would not have a problem with us taking Quinn at 10, but if Jones is still on the board and I can't get my multiple draft picks for #10, I take Jones.

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Postby SkinsJock » Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:10 am

Red_One43 wrote:Here is more on Quinn being in the mold of DeMarcus Ware as Mayock believes as far as stature.

Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year honors, started at left end for Troy but also played rush end and weak-side linebacker.


The scouting reports that I am finding saw Ware as an OLB. That is not the case for Quinn. He seems like a better fit at DE with possiblities as an OLB. Again Unknown commodity for the Skins (Of course from a fans perspective it is unknown. Haslett may see something the scouting reports don't see).

As you see, Ware had played OLB so it was known whether or not he could cover. Some DEs cannot make that move to stand up LB. Andre Carter was one of them. Not saying that Quinn and Andre are one in the same, but I am saying if I guy has a mindset that he has to have his hand in the dirt, then he will alway struggle with OLB. Do we know Quinn's mindset. Is he worth the gamble? I would not have a problem with us taking Quinn at 10, but if Jones is still on the board and I can't get my multiple draft picks for #10, I take Jones.


:shock: I don't think the poll was about another player - frank was only looking for an opinion on taking Jones OR trading the pick

I would trade the pick - maybe not to St Louis but for the best value

If we have to use the pick then I just hope we don't use the first 2 picks we have on offense - that means we don't take Jones as we are most likely getting a QB with one of those first 2 picks
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Postby Red_One43 » Fri Apr 22, 2011 12:50 pm

SkinsJock wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:Here is more on Quinn being in the mold of DeMarcus Ware as Mayock believes as far as stature.

Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year honors, started at left end for Troy but also played rush end and weak-side linebacker.


The scouting reports that I am finding saw Ware as an OLB. That is not the case for Quinn. He seems like a better fit at DE with possiblities as an OLB. Again Unknown commodity for the Skins (Of course from a fans perspective it is unknown. Haslett may see something the scouting reports don't see).

As you see, Ware had played OLB so it was known whether or not he could cover. Some DEs cannot make that move to stand up LB. Andre Carter was one of them. Not saying that Quinn and Andre are one in the same, but I am saying if I guy has a mindset that he has to have his hand in the dirt, then he will alway struggle with OLB. Do we know Quinn's mindset. Is he worth the gamble? I would not have a problem with us taking Quinn at 10, but if Jones is still on the board and I can't get my multiple draft picks for #10, I take Jones.


:shock: I don't think the poll was about another player - frank was only looking for an opinion on taking Jones OR trading the pick

I would trade the pick - maybe not to St Louis but for the best value

If we have to use the pick then I just hope we don't use the first 2 picks we have on offense - that means we don't take Jones as we are most likely getting a QB with one of those first 2 picks


Thanks for pointing that out SkinsJock; however, Quinn was intoduced on this thread on the 4th post. I am aware that this thread is about Jones, so in my last sentence I tied it back to Jones. As far as the introduction of Quinn, I fully understand why the poster introduced Quinn as an option to drafting Jones or trading down. It looks like you are introducing another option - don't take Jones if we can't trade down because you don't want the first two picks for offense because you are sure, IYO, that the Skins will take a QB. I translate to mean you want a defensive player rather than Jones. Since you didn't specific who, may I pencil you in for Quinn since he has been already introduced on this thread?

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Postby yupchagee » Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:56 pm

Red_One43 wrote:
TCIYM wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.


Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade Cooley just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).


With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.


Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.


Mayock says:
"I think the kid has rare and elite skills for a defensive end in the National Football League," NFL Network senior draft analyst Mike Mayock said of Quinn (who is Mayock's No. 1-rated defensive end) on Path to the Draft, though he still thinks he projects better as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB.


http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ft-stock/1

For our argument, you failed to address my point that Quinn's coverage skills are unknown. Thus Quinn is a project at OLB.
Think back to Orakpo's rookie year. To maximize his talent, he was placed in the DE position where he got most of his sacks. You can't do that with Quinn on a 3-4 team. Orakpo isn't the best cover LB either. He is still learning. So, with Quinn, you might have to OLBs trying to learn how to cover. Von Miller stayed in school to coincentrate on his coverage skills and he was an OLB.


Orakpo got most of his sacks playing DE as a rookie because the DC didn't like to blitz.
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Postby Red_One43 » Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:58 pm

yupchagee wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
TCIYM wrote:
Red_One43 wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.


Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade Cooley just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).


With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.


Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.


Mayock says:
"I think the kid has rare and elite skills for a defensive end in the National Football League," NFL Network senior draft analyst Mike Mayock said of Quinn (who is Mayock's No. 1-rated defensive end) on Path to the Draft, though he still thinks he projects better as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB.


http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ft-stock/1

For our argument, you failed to address my point that Quinn's coverage skills are unknown. Thus Quinn is a project at OLB.
Think back to Orakpo's rookie year. To maximize his talent, he was placed in the DE position where he got most of his sacks. You can't do that with Quinn on a 3-4 team. Orakpo isn't the best cover LB either. He is still learning. So, with Quinn, you might have to OLBs trying to learn how to cover. Von Miller stayed in school to coincentrate on his coverage skills and he was an OLB.


Orakpo got most of his sacks playing DE as a rookie because the DC didn't like to blitz.

Hmmm, that's a simplistic way of looking at things. I thougt DCs looked at their talent and maximized it, at the same time, trying to foil offenses' plans by utilizing that talent in multiple ways. If I recall, Orakpo was a stud pass rusher coming out of college and not a stud pass coverage guy (I don't think he was an anything pass covarage guy coming out of college). Makes sense for DC to put him at DE on passing downs. Hmmm, didn't another Redskin DC move an LB to DE on passing downs to get the most out of him? Now, wouldn't you say there might be a little chance the DC had another reason than just not liking to blitz?

SI.com: Looking back to last season, do you think you were miscast as a defensive end on passing downs?

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