## Chances of Making Playoffs

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**1**of**2**•**1**, 2### Chances of Making Playoffs

Latest analysis gives us a 35.2% chance up from 14.2% after the win over the Ginas on Monday Night.

The guys ahead of us outside the NFC East are:

CHI 95%

PAC 90.3%

SEA 60.5%

CHI or PAC will win the North so we have to pass one of them or SEA or win the East.

BUC 20.8%

COW 20.6%

are right behind us. Everyone else is a true long shot.

Our chance of being the #4 seed is 24%.

Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

DarthMonk

The guys ahead of us outside the NFC East are:

CHI 95%

PAC 90.3%

SEA 60.5%

CHI or PAC will win the North so we have to pass one of them or SEA or win the East.

BUC 20.8%

COW 20.6%

are right behind us. Everyone else is a true long shot.

Our chance of being the #4 seed is 24%.

Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

DarthMonk

Hog Bowl III, V Champion (2011, 2013)

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

### Re: Chances of Making Playoffs

DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

100%

Andre Carter wrote:Damn man, you know your football.

Hog Bowl IV Champion (2012)

Hail to the Redskins!

### Re: Chances of Making Playoffs

Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

100%

We could win out and miss ... as I'm sure you know. However, I'd say it is probably over 75% if we do win out.

Our best chance is to win the division ... I think.

I wish the Steelers had beaten the Ravens 3 weeks ago and lost last week. Don't like catching them coming off a loss.

Hog Bowl III, V Champion (2011, 2013)

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

### Re: Chances of Making Playoffs

DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

100%

We could win out and miss

Show me the scenario.

Andre Carter wrote:Damn man, you know your football.

Hog Bowl IV Champion (2012)

Hail to the Redskins!

### Re: Chances of Making Playoffs

Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

100%

We could win out and miss

Show me the scenario.

THAT would be interesting ...

It's that time of the year - RUN THE DAMN BALL - if they figure out how to stop it then find another way to RUN THE DAMN BALL

### Re: Chances of Making Playoffs

Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

100%

We could win out and miss

Show me the scenario.

Really? Okay.

Giants win out (11-5) and win East.

Seahawks win out (11-5) and get a wild card behind 49ers (11-4-1).

Bears and Pack win out except their rematch so one wins division (12-4) and the other gets the other wild card (11-5).

I like our chances if we win out. We do not control our own destiny but might after this week.

Hog Bowl III, V Champion (2011, 2013)

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

- cowboykillerzRGiii
**Posts:**6303**Joined:**Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:56 pm**Location:**505 New Mexico repn

If the gnats lose a game and we win out we own the tie breaker with better division record since the fecals beat them, they split with us and dullass. Might make week 17 vs the pukes the biggest game of the year! Glad its at home

#21 forever in our hearts

“I wanted to just… put his lights out ….because, you know, …Dallas sucks…” - Dexter Manley

“I wanted to just… put his lights out ….because, you know, …Dallas sucks…” - Dexter Manley

cowboykillerzRGiii wrote:If the gnats lose a game and we win out we own the tie breaker with better division record since the fecals beat them, they split with us and dullass. Might make week 17 vs the pukes the biggest game of the year! Glad its at home

Damn right ... and if so, I'm going!

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

- Countertrey
**Posts:**16451**Joined:**Fri Jan 09, 2004 10:15 pm**Location:**Curmudgeon Corner, Maine

### Re: Chances of Making Playoffs

Deadskins wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.

100%

We could win out and miss

Show me the scenario.

seriously?

Math. It's not just for nerds.

"That's a clown question, bro"

- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman

"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man

That he didn't, didn't already have"

- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America

- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman

"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man

That he didn't, didn't already have"

- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America

BTW - Indy's chances are 82.8%. The last AFC spot is likely down to Cincy (56.5%) and Pitt (55%).

Other "interesting" facts about us:

Out of roughly 9.9 million possibilities ...

... around 3.4 million of them get us in.

... around 2.2 million of them have us getting in by finishing 3-1.

... around 0.9 million of them have us getting in by finishing 4-0. The idea here is not that it's harder to get in IF we go 4-0 but that 4-0 is simply less likely than 3-1.

Our chances fall off a cliff with 2 more losses.

We could easily be favored in every game.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

Other "interesting" facts about us:

Out of roughly 9.9 million possibilities ...

... around 3.4 million of them get us in.

... around 2.2 million of them have us getting in by finishing 3-1.

... around 0.9 million of them have us getting in by finishing 4-0. The idea here is not that it's harder to get in IF we go 4-0 but that 4-0 is simply less likely than 3-1.

Our chances fall off a cliff with 2 more losses.

We could easily be favored in every game.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

Deadskins wrote:If we beat Bmore, we will win out.

I feel the same way - linchpin game.

Wonder what would have happened if refs had not given Seattle the Packer game (with butterfly effect).

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

We are suddenly at 66.5%.

We are 53% to be the 4 seed.

We are 3% to be the 3 seed.

We cannot get a bye.

We must beat the Cowboys to win the East.

The most likely scenario is Washington hosting Seattle.

They've knocked us out twice recently ... at their place. Payback would be very nice.

There is an outside chance we could host an NFC title game.

DarthMonk

We are 53% to be the 4 seed.

We are 3% to be the 3 seed.

We cannot get a bye.

We must beat the Cowboys to win the East.

The most likely scenario is Washington hosting Seattle.

They've knocked us out twice recently ... at their place. Payback would be very nice.

There is an outside chance we could host an NFC title game.

DarthMonk

Hognostication Champion (2011, 2013)

Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,

We will take 'em big score!

Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,

We want heap more!

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