Luck?

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Postby 1niksder » Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:16 am

Countertrey wrote:Of course, there is no way to prove it... but I doubt, very much, that this team would be fighting for a Division championship were Luck our quarterback... yes, our record would have been better... but we'd probably be in the 6-7 win range. We won several games purely because of RG3's very unique skills.


B/r is trying



In most other years, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson or even Alfred Morris could all have easily won an Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But 2012 is no such year. There will be only one winner, and his name is Robert Griffin III.

First, a look at the passing stats so far for the three front-runners:



Robert Griffin III: 249/375 for 3,100 yards, 8.27 avg, 66.4% completion, 20 TDs, 5 INT, 104.1 Rating

Russell Wilson: 237/374 for 2,868 yards, 7.67 avg, 63.4% completion, 25 TDs, 10 INT, 98.0 Rating

Andrew Luck: 325/599 for 4,183 yards, 6.98 avg, 54.3% completion, 21 TDs, 18 INT, 75.6 Rating

...

In this case, I think Griffin is highly deserving of his Pro Bowl trip, among a slew of other awards he should be given in the very near future.

Over the course of the year, no single rookie has been such a consistently dominant force in every game. Luck, Wilson? Both have had multiple bad games. I challenge you to find RGIII's bad game.

...

Griffin has yet to post a multi-interception game, whereas Luck has posted five such games and Wilson two. Now you could say that's because Luck throws the ball more and has to play a different style, but Wilson has one less attempt on the year than Griffin.

First off, I don't believe that Luck is as big a threat to Griffin winning Offensive Rookie of the Year as Wilson. In the past four games, Luck has completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Yes he's racking up yards, but he hasn't been nearly as dominant of a player as Griffin or Wilson.




Just to be clear, Luck has been phenomenal for the Colts this season. He has led four fourth quarter comebacks (and seven game-winning drives) to Griffin's three, but while he's produced some big wins, I don't think he's played at the level of either Griffin or Wilson. He's a high-volume passer which is where he gets all the yards, but that's what the Colts need to succeed.

If we're considering Wilson, the biggest argument for him is that he's led the Seahawks to three straight blowouts, thus entering the conversation for Rookie of the Year. But let's take a look at those games:


ARI (5-10): 7/13 for 148 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
@BUF (5-10): 14/23 for 205 yards, 1 TD, 3 RSH TD
SF (10-4-1): 15/21 for 171 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT



Those three games that everyone says are making the case for him being OROY are similar to the last three games RGIII played when healthy. Although I would say Griffin's numbers are slightly better.


NYG (8-7): 13/21 for 163 yards, 1 TD
@DAL (8-7): 19/27 for 304 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
PHI (4-11): 14/15 for 200 yards, 4 TD (Only second rookie QB to post a "perfect game" in history (Bledsoe))



I think it's fair to consider that a wash. Now let's look at Wilson's single best game of the season. In their big win against New England at home, Wilson went 16-of-27 for 293 and three touchdowns.That's a huge game against a very good team, and Wilson was the reason why they won.

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I would argue that Griffin and Wilson are very comparable statistically. Outside of his three-interception game against St. Louis, Wilson is very careful with the ball. He's a fairly accurate passer who is more than capable of delivering the big play. However, if you're comparing the two side by side, Griffin is a far greater talent because of his proficiency with the deep ball.

The Seahawks also benefit from having a top-five defense allowing the least points per game (15.5) in the country, with Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner forming one of the better cornerback tandems in the league. Marshawn Lynch has also been an animal once again this season, providing a lot of relief for Wilson in the backfield.

The Redskins, on the other hand, are near the bottom in most defensive categories. While they do have the top rushing attack in the league at 162.3 ypg, Seattle is right behind them at 161.7 ypg.

Bottom line, Wilson has won one more game that Griffin with one more game to play. The Seahawks are guaranteed a wild-card spot, the Redskins are playing for the division tomorrow. Seattle has won six of the last seven, Washington is on a six-game winning streak. Wilson has five games against quality opponents, Griffin has seven (though Seattle has a slightly harder strength of schedule (.504) than Washington (.488)).

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The Redskin offense does allow Griffin to make easier throws down field mainly because receivers are often wide open. But the reason that happens is because teams are so afraid of Griffin as a runner. The zone-read pulls the linebackers towards the line of scrimmage and leaves the middle of the field open for Pierre Garcon to catch the ball in space.

But if you put either Luck or Wilson into that same offense, I don't believe it would have the same potency. Griffin is an entirely different player when you combine his arm with his running ability. Consider the rushing statistics of the three players:



Robert Griffin III: 114 carries for 752 yards. 6.6 average, 6 TDs

Russell Wilson: 84 carries for 431 yards. 5.1 average, 3 TDs

Andrew Luck: 57 carries for 254 yards. 4.5 average, 5 TDs

Griffin blows the other two out of the water in this category. Again, this is related to the scheme of the Redskins offense, but while they are both athletic in their own right, neither Wilson nor Luck have anywhere near the speed of RGIII that haunts defensive coordinators.

If the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award were based off the best passer in the league, this would be a close race. All three quarterbacks have their own claim to why they are the best passer, even though I still believe Griffin has the strongest case there. But since the award measures the best player rather than passer, the choice is clear.

Robert Griffin III is the best player out of these three and has performed as such. Luck and Wilson are both deserving quarterbacks with blindingly bright futures ahead of them, but right now Griffin is the clear-cut choice.

...



And are pretty convincing :D
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Postby The Hogster » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:59 am

The ROTY is RGIII's in my view. The Pro Bowl selection sealed it.

But, I think it's safe to say that Peyton Manning made a good move.

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Postby RayNAustin » Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:00 am

I don't think there is any comparison between Luck and RG3, statistically or otherwise .... no knock on Luck, as I think he's had a very good rookie campaign, and he'll likely continue improving each year as one should expect rookie QBs to do. He's got the talent to be a top 10 QB for the next dozen years.

Russell Wilson would be the clear front runner ahead of Luck for ROTY, if you remove RG3 from the equation, as his numbers are tremendous. Unbelievable when you consider that he was an undersized 3RD ROUND PICK .... the biggest steal of the draft among the QBs, who was brought in as a project, but has since surpassed anyone's wildest expectations.

That said, I don't think there is anyone outside Seattle WA, or those not institutionalized who would choose Wilson over RG3, given the choice. But to me, Wilson is a solid runner up to RG3, based on all relative calculations. But this was always a two-horse race between Luck and RG3, before the season even began, and now that we're near the end, with the Colts in the playoffs, and hopefully the Redskins too, it's still a two-horse race, and Wilson will likely finish 3rd.

There should be no doubt (and I'm really being objective ... or trying my best anyway) that RG3 has the significant edge on both Luck and Wilson. Heck ... give RG3 and the Redskins the Seattle Defense this year (they're #1 in points allowed 15+ per game) and the Redskins might be looking to complete a perfect 16-0 season today, instead of fighting for the Division against the Cowboys. We might have had the Division clinched at the buy week!!

Wilson has played remarkably well, and exceeded any reasonable expectation ... but Seattle's defense has carried that team, whereas RG3 has carried the Redskins, and kept them competitive even in the midst of stretches of total defensive implosion.

This recent 6 game winning streak is a perfect example .... the defense as managed (after the buy week) to improve just enough to allow the offense to win games. Still far from solid, they've managed to shore up some of the horrific breakdowns, and cut down on the number of big plays that were killing this team in the first half of the season. Hopefully that trend will continue, and the patient doesn't have a relapse this evening.

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Postby SkinsJock » Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:18 am

There is no way that Andrew Luck wins the NFL ROY award ...

and there is really no way that we can gauge how well or badly Rex would have done with this offense IF he had been used

I could care less - I hope we never see Rex play a game in B&G

and

I am pretty sure that RG3 doesn't play any better nor do the Redskins win any more games or be more successful if he wins any awards
RG3 plays the game to win, NOT to get any awards

btw - I also think he should win the NFL MVP award, but they'll probably think he's 'won' enough awards :twisted:
RG3 is now learning how to play QB in the NFL - Mike & Kyle did not help with the transition

Jay & Sean are going to make it happen ... "He has the ability and the desire, he just has to do it.” - J Gruden

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Postby Bob 0119 » Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:23 am

SkinsJock wrote:There is no way that Andrew Luck wins the NFL ROY award ...

and there is really no way that we can gauge how well or badly Rex would have done with this offense IF he had been used

I could care less - I hope we never see Rex play a game in B&G

and

I am pretty sure that RG3 doesn't play any better nor do the Redskins win any more games or be more successful if he wins any awards
RG3 plays the game to win, NOT to get any awards

btw - I also think he should win the NFL MVP award, but they'll probably think he's 'won' enough awards :twisted:


With Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning I'm not thinking RGIII for MVP just yet...depends how far we go
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Postby SkinsJock » Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:04 pm

Bob 0119 wrote: .. With Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning I'm not thinking RGIII for MVP just yet...depends how far we go


no worries Bob - I'd even add Tom Brady ...

THAT RG3 is even in the conversation (and he should be) is testimony to how valuable he is to our franchise
RG3 is now learning how to play QB in the NFL - Mike & Kyle did not help with the transition

Jay & Sean are going to make it happen ... "He has the ability and the desire, he just has to do it.” - J Gruden

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Postby Bob 0119 » Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:00 pm

SkinsJock wrote:
Bob 0119 wrote: .. With Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning I'm not thinking RGIII for MVP just yet...depends how far we go


no worries Bob - I'd even add Tom Brady ...

THAT RG3 is even in the conversation (and he should be) is testimony to how valuable he is to our franchise


I agree. It's amazing what RGIII has done and that he is even mentioned in the same breath as these guys is enough for me.

Peyton, coming back from a year off with a new team and looking like he hasn't missed a beat is a great story

Adrian Peterson; recovering from completely blowing out his knee barely a year ago and on the verge of setting the new single-season rushing record.

Tom Brady? Meh, he is still playing at a high level, but nothing special (for Brady anyway) I actually place him behind RGIII
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Postby riggofan » Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:36 am

RGIII deserves ROY, no question. Taking that 3-6 team on his shoulders and willing them to win the division, that should end the debate.

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Postby riggofan » Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:38 am

btw They should just hold off on ROY voting. Let's match up Colts v. Redskins in the Super Bowl and settle it on the field. :)

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Postby welch » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:17 am

I saw Seattle yesterday. They are good. Their QB remnds me of a smaller version of Robert Griffin, not as fast, but with a superb receiver. No slouch.

But Robert Griffin is something beyond. He is in the Sammy Baugh / Sonny Jurgensen League...above the NFL-level.

I've watched the NFL since about 1956, and there has been no QB like Griffin. Throws like Sonny (not the equal of Sonny, and nobody has neen) and runs like Charley Taylor.

That takes us back fifty years, and I think Griffin is that once-in-50-years kind of player.

ROTY? Nobody else is close to Griffin...except, maybe, Alfred Morris.

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