Upset prediction: Redskins over Cowboys
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Upset prediction: Redskins over Cowboys
by Irn-Bru » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:46 am
"I’m never under the assumption that you draft for need. You draft the best available football player on the board. ... Because, in the long run, they are the ones who will help you win the most games." - Scot McCloughan
by emoses14 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:15 am
Upset Watch: Washington Redskins (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Let's be clear: Dallas has been better than Washington this season. However, the Cowboys haven't been that much better than the Redskins with any of their three units -- but they have been better with all three. The Football Outsiders DVOA ratings rank Dallas six spots better on offense and four spots better on defense.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Robert Griffin III has been terrible in the first half of games.
Washington's biggest issue is trying to figure out why it can't get any offense going before halftime. Washington ranks 30th in offensive DVOA in the first half of games but fourth after halftime. This isn't just an issue of Robert Griffin III tearing up prevent defenses when the Redskins got blown out early in their first two games. Even in their Week 4 win over Oakland, the Redskins had 4.6 yards per play in the first two quarters and 6.1 yards per play after halftime.
Even if Washington can't score much in the first half, however, don't write off the upset, because so far this year the Dallas defense has had the opposite problem. The Cowboys are much better on defense to start games -- 12th in defensive DVOA before halftime and just 31st after halftime.
The strengths and weaknesses of the Dallas defense suggest that the Redskins need to put this game in Griffin's hands -- or, more accurately, on his arm rather than his and Alfred Morris' feet. The Cowboys rank seventh in defense against the run and allow just 3.2 yards per carry on first downs. However, the pass defense is 24th in DVOA and has been torched by Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning the past two weeks. (In defense of their defense, everyone gets torched by Manning.) Dallas brought almost no pressure against the Broncos, and Washington has been good at keeping pass-rushers off Griffin this year, ranking eighth in adjusted sack rate on offense.
On defense, the Redskins will need to figure out how to clamp down on Dez Bryant. Last year, DeAngelo Hall famously did a good job keeping Bryant contained in the Week 17 win that sent Washington to the playoffs. However, Bryant had 145 yards and two touchdowns in the first Dallas-Washington meeting last year, and Hall has generally been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league. This year, the Redskins have started the season last in DVOA against opponents' No. 1 receivers, allowing a 71 percent catch rate with 91 yards per game.
A final way for Washington to get an upset would be improvement on special teams. This has been the biggest gap between these two teams in 2013, and our special-teams ratings have Washington below average in every area of special teams except kickoff distance. Punts and field goals have been the biggest problems, but Washington does get back injured kicker Kai Forbath this week. He was the brightest spot on Washington's special teams a year ago.
I know he got a pretty good zip on the ball. He has a quick release. . . once I seen a coupla' throws, I was just like 'Yeah, he's that dude.'"
-Santana Moss on Our QB
by Deadskins » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:12 am
Washington has been good at keeping pass-rushers off Griffin this year, ranking eighth in adjusted sack rate on offense.
Not the way some here tell it.
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Hail to the Redskins!
by SkinsJock » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:02 pm
I presume they're thinking that we'll cover the spread and that would be an upset 
IMO - the winning margin is not going to be close ... we're going to win this game and dominate the pukes - maybe that will 'upset' a lot of puke fans but it's really not an upset, per se
IMO - the winning margin is not going to be close ... we're going to win this game and dominate the pukes - maybe that will 'upset' a lot of puke fans but it's really not an upset, per se
We are looking for football players who have “the personality, the competitiveness and the passion for the game and who understand that it’s all about the team and that we’re going to take care of each other, no matter what" - S. McCloughan
- Countertrey
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by Countertrey » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:11 pm
Dallas sucks
"That's a clown question, bro"
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
by emoses14 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:29 am
Filth flarn filth Dallas.
I know he got a pretty good zip on the ball. He has a quick release. . . once I seen a coupla' throws, I was just like 'Yeah, he's that dude.'"
-Santana Moss on Our QB
- crazyhorse1
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by crazyhorse1 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:52 am
emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.
Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.
by riggofan » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:25 pm
Mike Shanahan is just a much better coach than Jason Garrett. We're going to get this done.
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"You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax
"We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
by SkinsJock » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:45 pm
riggofan wrote:Mike Shanahan is just a much better coach than Jason Garrett. We're going to get this done.
true dat
Dallas sucks ... big time
We are looking for football players who have “the personality, the competitiveness and the passion for the game and who understand that it’s all about the team and that we’re going to take care of each other, no matter what" - S. McCloughan
by Irn-Bru » Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:14 pm
crazyhorse1 wrote:emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.
Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.
It really wasn't that bad, and Dallas' defense and (especially) special teams are what won it. I was pleased with our defensive effort against Romo.
"I’m never under the assumption that you draft for need. You draft the best available football player on the board. ... Because, in the long run, they are the ones who will help you win the most games." - Scot McCloughan
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by 1niksder » Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:21 pm
Irn-Bru wrote:crazyhorse1 wrote:emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.
Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.
It really wasn't that bad, and Dallas' defense and (especially) special teams are what won it. I was pleased with our defensive effort against Romo.
+1
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by HTTRRG3ALMO » Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:02 pm
Irn-Bru wrote:crazyhorse1 wrote:emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.
Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.
It really wasn't that bad, and Dallas' defense and (especially) special teams are what won it. I was pleased with our defensive effort against Romo.
RG3's inaccuracy was what bothered me the most. It is really good to see him running full speed though; to me, that demonstrates a mental milestone for him.
I do believe his accuracy will return as well, but there's always that nagging "what if" in the back of my mind. Just a learned response perhaps.
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by Countertrey » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:09 pm
Before or after the game...
One FACT remains the same...
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
One FACT remains the same...
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
"That's a clown question, bro"
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
- - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman
"But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man
That he didn't, didn't already have"
- - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
- StorminMormon86
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by StorminMormon86 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:35 pm
Countertrey wrote:Before or after the game...
One FACT remains the same...
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
I concur. And the division is still not lost.
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