Post Draft NFC East Projections

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Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby riggofan » Wed May 21, 2014 10:07 am

Here's the piece from ESPN insider for anybody interested who doesn't have an account:

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6 (10.0 mean wins, strength of schedule: 23)
New York Giants: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins, SOS: 24)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins, SOS: 15)
Washington Redskins: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 21)

Of all the teams with losing records in 2013, the Giants are probably the best bet to make next year's postseason. They were 7-9, so it isn't as if this is a massive turnaround, but there are a couple of strong indicators.

First, yardage is much more consistent from year to year than turnovers. It's very unlikely the Giants will put up a turnover margin of minus-15 again, especially given that Eli Manning's 27 picks almost matched his total from 2011 and 2012 combined. More importantly, the Giants were destroyed by injuries last year, with the highest "adjusted games lost" total of any team Football Outsiders has ever tracked (going back to 2000). Some teams do have a tendency to have more injuries than average year after year -- the Packers and Patriots keep making it to the postseason despite this problem -- but, for the most part, we should go into every season expecting each team to have an average number of injuries. That change alone would do wonders for the Giants.

It's also the biggest reason to believe they could top Philadelphia for the division title, as the Eagles were among the lowest teams in adjusted games lost last year. On the other hand, we know offense tends to be more consistent than defense, which in turn is more consistent than special teams. That means teams that significantly improve based on offense, such as the Eagles, are more likely to maintain their improvement the next season than teams that significantly improve based on defense, such as Carolina.

Dallas has been 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for two years now. Despite the big names, this is a mediocre team that hasn't made big changes this offseason, and the Cowboys won't be lucky enough to recover 67 percent of fumbles again next year, either. The Redskins' projection could be too low, depending on how much difference another year of ACL recovery makes for Robert Griffin III. The Redskins also had one of the five worst special-teams ratings since 1989 last year, and that isn't going to happen again; better field position will make the offense and the defense look better.


I think the comments on the Redskins are fair. It could go either way largely depending on how RGIII looks. Good point too about special teams.

One thing I do know is that these guys always seem to predict the divisions the exact same way they finished the previous year. When does that ever happen?

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby emoses14 » Wed May 21, 2014 11:56 am

I thought everything was fair except for the win total projection. That, I thought was laughable. I guess my opinion of the likely outcome of both sentences devoted to the skins (especially the first) warrants more than a 3 win bump from last year.
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby Deadskins » Wed May 21, 2014 1:04 pm

emoses14 wrote:I thought everything was fair except for the win total projection. That, I thought was laughable. I guess my opinion of the likely outcome of both sentences devoted to the skins (especially the first) warrants more than a 3 win bump from last year.

My assessment exactly.
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby cowboykillerzRGiii » Wed May 21, 2014 3:19 pm

Predictable predictions are booooring... like was said, with the NFL salary cap, free agency, and the draft, its a rare sight for teams to repeat the rankings from the year prior.
We were not great last year, but easily could have been better then a 3 win team... to think we will only get six is laughable and the Egirl's fanboy who made this report is hoping Rgiii doesn't show the world why he IS worth the kings ransom we gave up...
NOW, the bit about improved offences staying improved isnt really thought out enough here... the fecals lost their star wide out, and the chances of Foles putting up the same td/int ratio all season are slim to none... especially with out his #1 receiver.
On the flip side our young qb had a decent year, but will only do better with a. More time healing his knee b. A full off-season to work on mechanics c. Added talent on the oline to take less hits and d. A MUCH improved wide receiver core. (NFLs most improved by many accounts)
To give the gnats second is a little mind boggling as Crybaby Eli looked like poop last year (didn't come back from any major surgeries either) and has only lost more people around him!!
The pukes? Lose Ware. Still have Romo... the Jerruh will ensure their demise :twisted:
While our rivals have been losing stars to free agency we have done the opposite in filling holes with talents greater then what netted us the divisional crown 2 years prior.
#21 forever in our hearts
...and yet ANOTHER record setting performance by "RG3 the third"!!!!
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby rick301 » Wed May 21, 2014 3:57 pm

Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith predict the Redskins will win the NFC East

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book released its 2014 NFL season win totals on Sunday, providing excellent fodder for bloggers and gamblers alike. ESPN’s Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith discussed the over/under win totals on Tuesday’s episode of “First Take” and neither host agreed with Vegas’s perception of the NFC East (Eagles: 9 wins; Cowboys: 8; Giants: 7.5; Redskins: 7.5).

“It says that the oddsmakers have little to no respect for next year’s NFC East, because the oddsmakers are saying that only one team in the East is even going to be slightly above .500 when all is said and done,” Bayless said. “That would be the Eagles at around 9-7, and yet I think the oddsmakers at this moment … are overestimating Dallas to win eight games and go 8-8 again. I think that’s high. And I think the Redskins at about seven-and-a-half wins — projected — I think that’s low. Right now, if you backed me into a corner, I’m picking the Redskins to win the NFC East.

Say what?

“I am obviously banking heavily on my guy, Robert Griffin III, to bounce all the way back to being the RGIII that we knew two years ago before the dreaded knee injury and the dreaded last year that he had,” Bayless continued. “I think with DeSean Jackson wreaking revenge on Philly twice within the NFC East battles; I love that addition, I love what it will do for the team. I love it that the Redskins went out and signed our guy Ryan Clark, just for his savvy, his leadership and his toughness. I think that will really help mold that defensive secondary and I like where they’re headed if RGIII is RGIII, and I believe with all my heart he will bounce completely back. So I have the Redskins winning 10 games next year.”

Then, in a bizarre twist for a show with the tagline “Embrace Debate,” Smith completely agreed.

“Skip Bayless, so do I,” he said. “I believe the acquisition of DeSean Jackson, to pair with Pierre Garcon, with Alfred Morris coming out of the backfield, with RGIII on a mission to resurrect his reputation, his name, et cetera, I think all of those things bode well for the Washington Redskins. And I think with the way the Eagles organization, tacitly or otherwise, handled the DeSean Jackson situation will come back to haunt them. Plus, I’m not sold on Nick Foles.

“I know LeSean McCoy was in here yesterday, I know how he feels about Nick Foles. He clearly can play, he’s no scrub, but now that you’re the guy, and teams are able to walk into the season preparing for you, knowing they’ll have to, I think it’s going to be a little bit different for Nick Foles this year than it was last year. And as a result, I don’t think the Eagles are going win the division. I’m thinking the Redskins will probably do it.”

Smith also predicted the Cowboys will finish in last place and Bayless said he can’t see Dallas winning more than six games. That might be more reason to take the over.


This sounds more reasonable than the ESPN piece.

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby emoses14 » Wed May 21, 2014 4:33 pm

Up is down, in is out. Skip Bayless and Steven A. Smith (agreeing, for one) giving voice to my own private thoughts (for two). Mass hysteria, cats and dogs living together.
I know he got a pretty good zip on the ball. He has a quick release. . . once I seen a coupla' throws, I was just like 'Yeah, he's that dude.'"

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby Kilmer72 » Wed May 21, 2014 6:00 pm

cowboykillerzRGiii wrote:Predictable predictions are booooring... like was said, with the NFL salary cap, free agency, and the draft, its a rare sight for teams to repeat the rankings from the year prior.
We were not great last year, but easily could have been better then a 3 win team... to think we will only get six is laughable and the Egirl's fanboy who made this report is hoping Rgiii doesn't show the world why he IS worth the kings ransom we gave up...
NOW, the bit about improved offences staying improved isnt really thought out enough here... the fecals lost their star wide out, and the chances of Foles putting up the same td/int ratio all season are slim to none... especially with out his #1 receiver.
On the flip side our young qb had a decent year, but will only do better with a. More time healing his knee b. A full off-season to work on mechanics c. Added talent on the oline to take less hits and d. A MUCH improved wide receiver core. (NFLs most improved by many accounts)
To give the gnats second is a little mind boggling as Crybaby Eli looked like poop last year (didn't come back from any major surgeries either) and has only lost more people around him!!
The pukes? Lose Ware. Still have Romo... the Jerruh will ensure their demise :twisted:
While our rivals have been losing stars to free agency we have done the opposite in filling holes with talents greater then what netted us the divisional crown 2 years prior.



I agree with almost all of that!!!! The one thing that I keep in mind is, we look much improved on paper but we have been down this road before. Improved ST (can't get worse),Bigger Oline,recievers,pass rushers, last years experience for Amerson.... Lots of things to look forward to this year. ST is what mostly did us in last year out of all three phases. IMO

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby Countertrey » Wed May 21, 2014 6:54 pm

emoses14 wrote:Up is down, in is out. Skip Bayless and Steven A. Smith (agreeing, for one) giving voice to my own private thoughts (for two). Mass hysteria, cats and dogs living together.
This was my thought, exactly... God, I hate Skip Bayless... it sucks when he gives a reason not to... Ugh.
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby Kilmer72 » Wed May 21, 2014 7:03 pm

Countertrey wrote:
emoses14 wrote:Up is down, in is out. Skip Bayless and Steven A. Smith (agreeing, for one) giving voice to my own private thoughts (for two). Mass hysteria, cats and dogs living together.
This was my thought, exactly... God, I hate Skip Bayless... it sucks when he gives a reason not to... Ugh.



He is either a kiss of death or he is the new Nostradamus..... Either way I feel uneasy about Bayless myself. Unfortunately I agree. It looks good from here.

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby KazooSkinsFan » Thu May 22, 2014 12:27 pm

riggofan wrote:I think the comments on the Redskins are fair. It could go either way largely depending on how RGIII looks. Good point too about special teams.

One thing I do know is that these guys always seem to predict the divisions the exact same way they finished the previous year. When does that ever happen?


I could see the NFC East finishing in any order this year. At least for this year, last year's standings are as good as my method of a coin flip tournament.
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby KazooSkinsFan » Thu May 22, 2014 12:31 pm

Deadskins wrote:
emoses14 wrote:I thought everything was fair except for the win total projection. That, I thought was laughable. I guess my opinion of the likely outcome of both sentences devoted to the skins (especially the first) warrants more than a 3 win bump from last year.

My assessment exactly.


Granted we're not getting any favors, but I don't want any from the outside. The fact is that we were not only 3-13 last year, but by the end of the year we were being blown out by everyone good or bad. Our o-line was a sieve, our secondary non-existent and our franchise QB hobbled and ineffective and we sat him the last 3 games to keep from getting killed. We didn't address our o-line or secondary in a big way and no matter what the camp reports are, RG3 hasn't shown anyone he's back on the field. Given that, I think 3-13 to 6-10 is reasonable. Again, it's not giving us any favors, but I don't see it as a slam either.

I do think we're going to be better. We did win the division 2 years ago. Our o-line showed promise 2 years ago, so I see the argument to not blow it up but address it incrementally. I'm concerned about the secondary, but we do have some upgrade there and a pass rush would make a world of difference. I totally could see us bouncing back and winning the division.
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby riggofan » Thu May 22, 2014 1:13 pm

Good post, KazooSkinsFan.

I don't really expect anybody to be making favorable predictions for us this off season. Not really complaining about it or anything, though I do find the laziness of this "analysis" to be irritating. The respect given to the Cowboys in particular blows my mind.

I actually kind of hope we have a low key preseason and stay off the national media radar as much as possible. Let Cleveland and Johnny Manziel enjoy all of the hype and spotlight this year. Show up week one v. the Texans and make a statement.

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby SkinsJock » Thu May 22, 2014 1:56 pm

same old prediction BS :lol:

the Redskins are going to be better than they were last season but that's not a stretch given we won 3 games

The Redskins could win the NFC East but not because they are better than the other 3 teams but because all of the teams have big question marks

I think that Robert will show that he's going to be a future great QB - the past 2 seasons were not indicative of his real capabilities

I think Jay and Scott will get more out of the offense than Mike and Kyle did PLUS I expect to see much better play from both Special Teams and the defense this season

I really do think we can win 8 or 9 games and that's a big step up
Getting our QB back will help a lot but we still have a lot of issues to address

Players and coaches need to believe that they can be successful - they are not playing with that attitude - big changes are coming

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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby Deadskins » Fri May 23, 2014 12:21 pm

SkinsJock wrote:The Redskins could win the NFC East but not because they are better than the other 3 teams but because all of the teams have big question marks

I think we're better than the other three. I'll be disappointed if we don't control our own destiny in the division come December.
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Re: Post Draft NFC East Projections

Postby cowboykillerzRGiii » Fri May 23, 2014 5:03 pm

Im with ya deadman!
While I'm trying to be realistic, I wouldn't be surprised if we look more like a championship caliber tteam all around
#21 forever in our hearts
...and yet ANOTHER record setting performance by "RG3 the third"!!!!
“I wanted to just… put his lights out ….because, you know, …Dallas sucks…” - Dexter Manley

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