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yupchagee
#14
Joined: 19 Apr 2006
Posts: 4110
Location: Louisville KY
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| Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:12 am Post subject: |
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» WR Donnie Avery (5-11 1/8, 182): Ran the 40 in 4.35 and 4.34, had a 37 ½-inch vertical jump, 10-foot, 6-inch long jump, 3.91 short shuttle, 6.30 cone drill, ran position drills.
This should move him way up & improve our chances of getting the type of WR that we need. I think his shuttle & cone times are the best this year. |
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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:49 am Post subject: |
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Daniel (NYC): Can the Bills take a WR at 11 or is that too high? Especially if Kelly doesn't have a good day April 9...
SportsNation Todd McShay: I think it is a little bit high, but I also think the need a big WR. If Kelly works out as well as I think he will (I am told at 230 lbs, he will run in the low 4.4s and is perfectly healthy) the Bills will strongly consider taking him there. ideally they would move back a few spots, get some picks, and still get him, but that may not happen. I am told they are falling in love with Kelly. |
Doesn't sound good for us. |
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SkinsFreak
Fire in the Sky
Joined: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 4884
Location: Surfside
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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It was reported today on NFL Live that Cincy is now showing some interest in Malcolm Kelly. So much so, they contacted Kelly's agent to inform them they will be coming to Kelly's pro day. There is now some head scratching as to why so much interest all of a sudden. The Guys on NFL Live said Cincy is aware that Buffalo is interested in Kelly at #11. Also, with the release of Henry, maybe they're trying to stir it up a bit, showing interest in Kelly in hopes that someone will try to trade up with them. Or maybe they might actually take Kelly at #9, which would be a bit of a stretch imo.
It's a real poker match going on right now. All of a sudden, Kelly's stock has risen and he hasn't even worked out yet. I really think the injury concerns surrounding Kelly were quite inflated.
They also went back and talked about Manningham and how he could be a steal in the 2nd round. After game tape review and analysis, in terms of route running, hands and strength, they said Manningham looked the best and most complete. A poor 40 time at the combine and reported poor interviews dropped him a bit. Nevertheless, he rebounded with a good time at his pro day and they reiterated that he could be a steal for some team. It will be interesting to see how the cards fall come draft day. |
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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| SkinsFreak wrote: | It was reported today on NFL Live that Cincy is now showing some interest in Malcolm Kelly. So much so, they contacted Kelly's agent to inform them they will be coming to Kelly's pro day. There is now some head scratching as to why so much interest all of a sudden. The Guys on NFL Live said Cincy is aware that Buffalo is interested in Kelly at #11. Also, with the release of Henry, maybe they're trying to stir it up a bit, showing interest in Kelly in hopes that someone will try to trade up with them. Or maybe they might actually take Kelly at #9, which would be a bit of a stretch imo.
It's a real poker match going on right now. All of a sudden, Kelly's stock has risen and he hasn't even worked out yet. I really think the injury concerns surrounding Kelly were quite inflated.
They also went back and talked about Manningham and how he could be a steal in the 2nd round. After game tape review and analysis, in terms of route running, hands and strength, they said Manningham looked the best and most complete. A poor 40 time at the combine and reported poor interviews dropped him a bit. Nevertheless, he rebounded with a good time at his pro day and they reiterated that he could be a steal for some team. It will be interesting to see how the cards fall come draft day. |
Also, with the release of Henry and CJ's holdout/retirement/Arena League drama Cincy is probably in need of another receiver. If they are serious about taking a receiver in the first, which I agree with you seems like a stretch, maybe they've finally gotten sick of the CJ drama and are considering moving him. They likely wouldn't take Kelly 9th overall, but if they got a mid or late first rounder for CJ then they could try and get Kelly then. |
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fleetus
Hog
Joined: 25 Apr 2004
Posts: 1757
Location: Charlottesville, Va.
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| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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Hardy may ultimately be better than all of them in my opinion. Kelly may be healthy, but that doesn't mean he will STAY healthy. He's had injuries before and now will be coming to a more physical league that plays 16 games instead of 11.
As far as Cincy or the Bills at #9 and 11 respectively, it's a real possibility. There are always teams that really have their sights set on a specific position. Just because scouts aren't grading any WR's as top 15 picks doesn't mean one or two of the top 15 teams won't draft one. It happens every year. There is always at least one thin position that gets drafted too early because of need. No matter, I want Hardy. |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: |
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Malcolm Kelly could make or break himself with his Pro Day today.
A poor performance would likely drop Kelly behind Devin Thomas, DeSean Jackson, Limas Sweed and James Hardy on most teams draft boards.
A good performance will all but guarantee that Kelly is gone in the top 10. Were I a GM, I would not pay any of this wide receiver class the $10 Million or more guaranteed salary for a top 10 pick. I suppose that's one of many reasons why I'm still not getting those calls about open GM positions.
But if you're going to invest 10% of the team salary cap in one rookie, I would think you'd make as much of an effort as possible to draft an immediate impact player. And draft history has shown that wide receivers seldomn, if ever, work out to be worth top 10 money.
There are an average of 33 wide receivers drafted each year. Adding undrafted free agents and walk-ons there is an average of 160 wide receivers league-wide who have a chance to make an NFL roster during training camps. Of those 160 wide receivers, an average of five become starters. That is roughly three percent. An average of sixteen make an NFL roster. That is roughly ten percent. By the numbers, wide receiver is the riskiest draft position there is.
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SkinsFreak
Fire in the Sky
Joined: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 4884
Location: Surfside
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:32 am Post subject: |
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| GSPODS wrote: | | And draft history has shown that wide receivers seldomn, if ever, work out to be worth top 10 money. |
First, I agree Kelly probably isn't worth top 10 money and perhaps no WR's are this year. But that doesn't mean one or a few of them can't be extremely beneficial to a team and contribute in a significant way. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them went on to be Pro Bowlers at some point in their careers. No one thought Marcus Colston would be so good, otherwise, he'd been the first receiver off the board that year.
I do, however, disagree that "wide receivers seldom, if ever, work out to worth top 10 money." It's really not a fair argument. Top ten draft picks always go the the worst teams, and in many cases, the historically worst teams with crap QB's. One stud player, regardless of position, isn't enough ammo to turn the tide for horrible teams. No one would argue that Calvin Johnson isn't an absolute stud, but he wasn't enough to make Detroit a winning team and his numbers could be construed as not being worth top ten money.
You could make the same argument for every position selected in the top ten. Did Alex Smith or JaMarcus Russell do anything for their organizations? Were they worth the money? How about Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Ted Ginn Jr., Levi Brown, Amobi Okoya, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, Vernon Davis and so on and so on... were those players alone enough to make their respective teams significantly better? Because if not, then it could be looked at in a way that those individuals weren't worth top ten money. |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:55 am Post subject: |
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| SkinsFreak wrote: | | GSPODS wrote: | | And draft history has shown that wide receivers seldomn, if ever, work out to be worth top 10 money. |
First, I agree Kelly probably isn't worth top 10 money and perhaps no WR's are this year. But that doesn't mean one or a few of them can't be extremely beneficial to a team and contribute in a significant way. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them went on to be Pro Bowlers at some point in their careers. No one thought Marcus Colston would be so good, otherwise, he'd been the first receiver off the board that year.
I do, however, disagree that "wide receivers seldom, if ever, work out to worth top 10 money." It's really not a fair argument. Top ten draft picks always go the the worst teams, and in many cases, the historically worst teams with crap QB's. One stud player, regardless of position, isn't enough ammo to turn the tide for horrible teams. No one would argue that Calvin Johnson isn't an absolute stud, but he wasn't enough to make Detroit a winning team and his numbers could be construed as not being worth top ten money.
You could make the same argument for every position selected in the top ten. Did Alex Smith or JaMarcus Russell do anything for their organizations? Were they worth the money? How about Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Ted Ginn Jr., Levi Brown, Amobi Okoya, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, Vernon Davis and so on and so on... were those players alone enough to make their respective teams significantly better? Because if not, then it could be looked at in a way that those individuals weren't worth top ten money. |
I should have qualified my statement by saying that wide receivers selected in the top 10 rarely turn out to be worth the money. Randy Moss was selected at #21. Many of the players you've mentioned are not wide receivers. Tackles and Running Backs are usually safer picks in the top 10 than wide receivers. Any player selected could be worth the investment. But more often than not with wide receivers, the investment is greater than the return on the investment. There are usually one or two gem wide receivers in each draft. Often they are not drafted in the top 10. As you pointed out, sometimes they are not drafted in the first several rounds. I think, based on the history of drafted wide receivers, that it is the largest gamble of a first round pick. And with the salary cap still in place many teams cannot afford the luxury of drafting an overpaid bust of a top 10 pick.
I know there has been a great deal of rumor about Kelly and other receivers being drafted in the top 10 or 11, but it seems to me that there are any number of safer draft choices for teams that need to improve immediately. Teams that need quality over quantity might be more willing to take a high-risk gamble. Teams that need quantity over quality might not be so willing to take the risk, and more rumors have it that several teams are looking to trade down. That leads me to question if GM's are thinking there are a limited number of players worthy of a first round selection this year, or if more teams are looking for quantity over quality. It also has me questioning whether or not the expressed interest by certain teams is genuine or merely the usual head games played before the draft.
Vinny Cerrato is supposively a draft guru, especially at finding good players in the later rounds. In fairly short order we will know if there is any truth to Vinny's supposed accumen at the draft. I'm just hoping like hell that the Redskins don't spend their #21 pick on a wide receiver. Ifg they trade up, I hope it's for defensive line help. If they trade down, I hope it's for both offensive and defensive line help. I think the Skins can find wide receivers in the later rounds, in undrafted free agency, and after the June 1st cuts, in addition to any possible trade scenarios that may present themselves.
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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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Here is a list of the receivers taken in the top 10 the last few seasons...
2007
Calvin Johnson - worth the pick imo. Played well as a rookie despite being on a crap team.
Ted Ginn Jr. - I feel bad for him bc he will be a solid receiver/returner in the NFL I think but the Dolphins reached for him and he is stuck with a horrible team so it might take him a few years.
2006
None taken in the top 10
2005
Braylon Edwards - definitely worth top 10 money. The guy is a stud.
Troy Williamson - bust up to this point. I'd like to see how he does with a decent qb though.
Mike Williams - big time bust
2004
Larry Fitzgerald - stud
Roy Williams - stud
Reggie Williams - not a stud like Fitz and Roy, but it's hard to argue with 10 td's in a season
2003
Charles Rogers - bust
Andre Johnson - stud
So looking back over the last 5 drafts, 10 receivers have been taken in the top 10. Of those 10, 5 are studs, 3 are busts, 1 is very solid but not a star (Reggie Williams), and with Ginn Jr. it's too early to tell. That's a pretty good hit rate if you ask me. And while receiver has historically been one of the harder positions to project, I think that with more college teams running pro-style offenses or going to spread offenses, we're going to see more NFL ready receivers in the draft in the coming years. |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| CanesSkins26 wrote: | Here is a list of the receivers taken in the top 10 the last few seasons...
2007
Calvin Johnson - worth the pick imo. Played well as a rookie despite being on a crap team.
Ted Ginn Jr. - I feel bad for him bc he will be a solid receiver/returner in the NFL I think but the Dolphins reached for him and he is stuck with a horrible team so it might take him a few years.
2006
None taken in the top 10
2005
Braylon Edwards - definitely worth top 10 money. The guy is a stud.
Troy Williamson - bust up to this point. I'd like to see how he does with a decent qb though.
Mike Williams - big time bust
2004
Larry Fitzgerald - stud
Roy Williams - stud
Reggie Williams - not a stud like Fitz and Roy, but it's hard to argue with 10 td's in a season
2003
Charles Rogers - bust
Andre Johnson - stud
So looking back over the last 5 drafts, 10 receivers have been taken in the top 10. Of those 10, 5 are studs, 3 are busts, 1 is very solid but not a star (Reggie Williams), and with Ginn Jr. it's too early to tell. That's a pretty good hit rate if you ask me. And while receiver has historically been one of the harder positions to project, I think that with more college teams running pro-style offenses or going to spread offenses, we're going to see more NFL ready receivers in the draft in the coming years. |
I'm speaking more from a value perspective than a talent perspective.
It costs roughly $3.5 Million per season in guaranteed salary times a three year contract to sign a top 10 wide receiver. That does not include any signing bonuses or incentives. Of the players you've listed, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald and Roy Williams I would agree were worth the value. Calvin Johnson and Ted Ginn, Jr. are borderline on value at best because their teams have too many other needs. Either could lead the NFL in receiving and they would still fall short of value simply because their teams would still be pathetic. I'd think it best to see how these two perform if their teams improve overall before making any final judgments.
Even by your analysis, that averages one stud wide receiver in the top 10 per draft. For $3.5 Million or more per season I would think a team would prefer to look at other positions. Look at Matt Millen. He loves drafting top 10 wide receivers and every year we question how it is that he keeps his job.
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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 12:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Calvin Johnson and Ted Ginn, Jr. are borderline on value at best because their teams have too many other needs. Either could lead the NFL in receiving and they would still fall short of value simply because their teams would still be pathetic. |
But you can say that about any player that either of those teams draft. The Dolphins especially have a lot of holes. No one player, unless it's a franchise quality qb, is going to make such a big impact that it turns a crap team into a contender.
And from my list, even if you exclude Johnson and Ginn Jr, you're still looking at 4 studs (Johnson, Fitz, Roy, Edwards) that I think are definitely both talented and worth the money that they are making. That's 4 studs and only 3 busts from the last 5 years. |
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SKIN4LIFE
piglet
Joined: 09 Mar 2005
Posts: 47
Location: Herndon, VA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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Here are the Malcom Kelly pro day results. I think that 40 time will cost him millions.
» WR Malcolm Kelly (6-3 7/8, 227): Ran the 40 in 4.75 and 4.68, had a 32-inch vertical jump, 9-foot, 9-inch long jump, 4.24 short shuttle, 7.00 cone drill, and ran position drills. Kelly looked very good.
I ddin't see this anywhere, sorry if someone beat me to it. |
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SKIN4LIFE
piglet
Joined: 09 Mar 2005
Posts: 47
Location: Herndon, VA
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yupchagee
#14
Joined: 19 Apr 2006
Posts: 4110
Location: Louisville KY
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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It sure will. It's possibly that the quad is stil bothering him. If'he passes the physical, I wouldn't worry about his timed speed & would go by his college productivity in evaluating him. |
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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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Not so fast...
| Quote: | NFL | M. Kelly unhappy with school
Wed, 9 Apr 2008 12:02:31 -0700
Jake Trotter, of The Oklahoman, reports University of Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly is unhappy with his school after his Pro Day performance Wednesday, April 9. Kelly said he was not told that the location of the Pro Day had been moved from Astroturf to Field turf until this morning. He claims he had been preparing for a month to run on Astroturf and was running the 40-yard dash in under 4.50 seconds. Kelly ran the 40-yard dash on field turf Wednesday, April 9, in 4.68 seconds. |
http://www.kffl.com/hotw/nfl |
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