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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| KazooSkinsFan wrote: | | yupchagee wrote: | | KazooSkinsFan wrote: | | At 21 we definitely need to take the best player and not pick by position. Higher and you have some flexibility to still get a top player. Lower and we need to get some prospects in at position of need. But at 21 we're past the top players and if we're drafting for position that could mean we're really picking a late first round or even early second round player. At almost any position it's better to get some quality depth then doing that. About the only positions I don't think we'd get value and need for the pick would be kicker, punter, QB or RB. I have a hard time seeing those. But anything else I say we just take the best player unless it's a virtual tie between highest need and lesser need positions. |
I believe in picking the player who will help the team the most. IMHO that will not be a DB or OT. |
We have age at both those positions though with Springs and Smoot in the former and Jansen and Samuels in the latter. Rogers is coming off an injury and while I'm not advocating cutting him, he hasn't been a shut down corner. Let's say we're picking and there is a clear quality starter caliber player at one of those positions we rate above everyone at other positions. Not only would they be some depth and future at those positions but we could really bring them along the right way and groom them rather then throwing them in. "If" that happened, you really think we should pass and pick a lower quality player at another position? That makes no sense to me. |
You make some good points, but you're basically making a convincing argument for taking a DB/OT in the middle rounds, not the First Round. Yes we need depth at CB and all along the offensive line, but at least we are entering the season with certainty as to our starters at those positions. Baring injury, we know that Springs and Smoot will start at CB and that Jansen and Samuels will start at tackle. However, there are several positions that don't have starters right now. At wide receiver we are missing a #2 receiver. On the defensive line, we are in need of at least one starting caliber player, preferably two. So from my perspective, I think that we need to worry about drafting starters before we draft backups. Now if a guy like Talib happens to fall to us, that's one thing. But taking guy like Flowers in the first round over a receiver or defensive lineman would be idiotic. |
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PeetyPa
swine
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 53
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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I agreed 100%. We dont have a #2 WR. I believe the value is better for a WR than a DE/DT at 21. I would say either Thomas or Hardy.
Or maybe we can move up to like 15 and get Limas Sweed!!!! by giving our first and one of our thirds. I think he is a beast. |
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SCSkinsFan
SCskinsFan
Joined: 25 Jun 2005
Posts: 5311
Location: Summerville, SC
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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Here's an interesting prediction.
http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/179320
Clement's Blog2008 NFL Draft: Mock Draft [Trades Galore!!!]
about 24 hours ago :: 7292 Views
2008 NFL Draft: Mock Draft 3.0
Redskins trade #21 and #154 overall to the Seahawks for #25 and #86 overall
The Chiefs ship the #35 pick overall to the Redskins for the #51 and #84 overall picks
25. Washington: Kentwan Balmer, DT - North Carolina
Greg Blache gets his prayers answered. Balmer is the player he wants, and 25 isn't too high of a pick to use on him. He should create a nice rotation with Griffin, Montgomery and Golston. He will eventually replace Griffin altogether.
35. Washington: Malcolm Kelly, WR - Oklahoma
The Chiefs get another 3rd rounder to help their rebuilding efforts, and the Redskins land their West Coast Offense WR who fell into the 2nd round. Kelly ran slow times in his Pro Day, but so did a lot of prospects on that day. He had great results in his positional testing.
Would anyone be upset with this scenario? Only thing I'm not sure about is that we give up two picks to move up in the 2nd Round to draft the "tall" WR everyone says that we need.
What say you? |
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gay4pacman
Pacman Rules
Joined: 17 Apr 2005
Posts: 1855
Location: Lawn Monster
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:08 pm Post subject: |
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the trade with the seahawks is favoring us pretty heavily not sure if the seasocks would do that the numbers dont really match up if you are following the NFL Draft Value Chart.
The second trade with the Chiefs is pretty fare. Unless Zorn casn work an inside job i dotn see the seahawk trade happening, if it does.....great for us! |
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SkinsJock
08 Champ
Joined: 24 Feb 2004
Posts: 11532
Location: New England
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| One thing you have to keep in mind is that teams are NOT allowed to trade "compensation" picks. |
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fleetus
Hog
Joined: 25 Apr 2004
Posts: 1757
Location: Charlottesville, Va.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:42 am Post subject: |
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| yupchagee wrote: | | PulpExposure wrote: | Anyone who has us spending our first rounder on a 5'9" Wide Receiver (DeSean Jackson) should turn in their NFL draft-predicting credentials immediately.
Oh? There aren't any?  |
Likewise anyone who has us drafting a DB or OT in the 1st rnd. |
Disagree. You draft for overall talent first, specific needs second. Now, if you have absolutely no need for a position, you may pass or trade down. But you won't live very long as a NFL GM, if all you do is pick the one or two positions you need most in the 1st round. There are numerous reasons for this, which I won't go into, because it would be too much typing.
Bottom line: IF the Skins feel the best player on the board is a WR, DL, OL, DB, or S, they should draft that player. Period. No point in wasting the first round pick and the salary that comes with it on their 3rd or 4th choice. |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| fleetus wrote: | | yupchagee wrote: | | PulpExposure wrote: | Anyone who has us spending our first rounder on a 5'9" Wide Receiver (DeSean Jackson) should turn in their NFL draft-predicting credentials immediately.
Oh? There aren't any? |
Likewise anyone who has us drafting a DB or OT in the 1st rnd. |
Disagree. You draft for overall talent first, specific needs second. Now, if you have absolutely no need for a position, you may pass or trade down. But you won't live very long as a NFL GM, if all you do is pick the one or two positions you need most in the 1st round. There are numerous reasons for this, which I won't go into, because it would be too much typing.
Bottom line: IF the Skins feel the best player on the board is a WR, DL, OL, DB, or S, they should draft that player. Period. No point in wasting the first round pick and the salary that comes with it on their 3rd or 4th choice. |
And if the best player is a quarterback or a running back, you're stating the Redskins should draft a player at a position they don't need and pay that draft prospect first round money to be a third stringer at best? As opposed to drafting a position they do need, even if it isn't the best available player on the board?
Do you see any flaws in your logic? |
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CanesSkins26
Canes Skin
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 6870
Location: Alexandria, VA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| GSPODS wrote: | | fleetus wrote: | | yupchagee wrote: | | PulpExposure wrote: | Anyone who has us spending our first rounder on a 5'9" Wide Receiver (DeSean Jackson) should turn in their NFL draft-predicting credentials immediately.
Oh? There aren't any? |
Likewise anyone who has us drafting a DB or OT in the 1st rnd. |
Disagree. You draft for overall talent first, specific needs second. Now, if you have absolutely no need for a position, you may pass or trade down. But you won't live very long as a NFL GM, if all you do is pick the one or two positions you need most in the 1st round. There are numerous reasons for this, which I won't go into, because it would be too much typing.
Bottom line: IF the Skins feel the best player on the board is a WR, DL, OL, DB, or S, they should draft that player. Period. No point in wasting the first round pick and the salary that comes with it on their 3rd or 4th choice. |
And if the best player is a quarterback or a running back, you're stating the Redskins should draft a player at a position they don't need and pay that draft prospect first round money to be a third stringer at best? As opposed to drafting a position they do need, even if it isn't the best available player on the board?
Do you see any flaws in your logic? |
I was just about to post a similar response to yours. You can't just draft based on talent alone, you need to take into account team needs. Otherwise you're going to have an unbalanced roster with lots of holes in it. The Lions drafted based on best player available and ended up taking 4 receivers in the top 10 in recent years. If a player that you have rated very highly drops, then perhaps you ignore your needs and draft that player because you are getting good value, but blindly drafting the best player available makes zero sense. |
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fleetus
Hog
Joined: 25 Apr 2004
Posts: 1757
Location: Charlottesville, Va.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:59 am Post subject: |
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| KazooSkinsFan wrote: | | At 21 we definitely need to take the best player and not pick by position. Higher and you have some flexibility to still get a top player. Lower and we need to get some prospects in at position of need. But at 21 we're past the top players and if we're drafting for position that could mean we're really picking a late first round or even early second round player. At almost any position it's better to get some quality depth then doing that. About the only positions I don't think we'd get value and need for the pick would be kicker, punter, QB or RB. I have a hard time seeing those. But anything else I say we just take the best player unless it's a virtual tie between highest need and lesser need positions. |
Look at it like this. It takes at least two years for rookies to develop enough that they can help a team, usually. If we draft a WR, he is not very likely to be a big help (above your average veteran WR you could pick off the scrap heap of releases and June 1st cuts) The same goes for most all positions. RB's sometimes can be big factors as rookies. But QB's, WR's, and DL are all notoriously slow to develop. So if you pass on that SPECIAL player because you already have starters there, in two years, it is almost guaranteed that you won't have those SAME starters still there. One of them will have been injured, gotten old and unproductive, or is asking for too much money.
This is the difference between the Patriots and most of the rest of the league. The Patriots are drafting the best player available over and over again. They constantly add talented young players who do not have to start right away. Two years later, if that rookie has proven himself, he might get a shot to start.
If you draft for need, you are constantly trying to simply plug holes. Rookies are starting too early rather than learning the ropes first. They don't develop as well in this situation. And don't forget, you didn't pick the best player to begin with, you "settled" for the best at that position, then expected him to play like a veteran his first year there. We can use the second half of the draft to fill hoes for depth, if need be. But at least the first three rounds should be "Best Player Available". |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: |
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The Redskins don't have two years for their draft picks to be productive. Unlike the Patriots, who have their starters and fill their needs through free agency, the Washington Redskins need starting talent now. So do most teams, which is why not every team has the luxury of simply taking the best player available.
Unless you are the Miami of the league and need starting talent at every position, or New England and need starting talent at no position, you have to be somewhat selective.
The best available player could land your team Robert Gallery or Ryan Leaf. |
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LOSTHOG
Hog
Joined: 21 Feb 2007
Posts: 814
Location: NORTH CAROLINA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| GSPODS wrote: |
The best available player could land your team Robert Gallery or Ryan Leaf. |
I agree with that statement, but any player in any round can end up as a flop, it just gets magnified more the higher the pick spent. I think you have to do a combination of talent and need. To be honest, I am not seeing any D-linemen that make jump for joy available at 21. Vinny may see it different. I'm not sold on a receiver at 21, but Vinny may see it different. Although I don't think DB is a huge issue for us right now, I wouldn't blame them for addressing the situation. Springs is still playing at a high level but no one knows how long that will last. I don't see Smoot as starting talent. He plays with a lot of heart, but his skills do not match his mouth. Who knows is CR will be fully recovered even at the midway point of the season. With all that being said, I think we will go wr in the 1st and draft Kelly. |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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| LOSTHOG wrote: | | GSPODS wrote: |
The best available player could land your team Robert Gallery or Ryan Leaf. |
I agree with that statement, but any player in any round can end up as a flop, it just gets magnified more the higher the pick spent. I think you have to do a combination of talent and need. To be honest, I am not seeing any D-linemen that make jump for joy available at 21. Vinny may see it different. I'm not sold on a receiver at 21, but Vinny may see it different. Although I don't think DB is a huge issue for us right now, I wouldn't blame them for addressing the situation. Springs is still playing at a high level but no one knows how long that will last. I don't see Smoot as starting talent. He plays with a lot of heart, but his skills do not match his mouth. Who knows is CR will be fully recovered even at the midway point of the season. With all that being said, I think we will go wr in the 1st and draft Kelly. |
I think the best strategy is to develop your team's draft board based upon both criteria. One board for ranking the prospects by "Best available" and the other for ranking the prospects by team need. Then you assign a compensation value to each prospect on your board. Then by comparing the two boards, and by eliminating the players who have already been selected, you reach the best available players at your positions of need. If the players on your board are available for selection, you see if your assigned compensation value is greater than, less than, or equal to what you would be paying the prospect you are considering. Would I rather overpay the wide receiver because I need one, or would I rather underpay the linebacker because I think he is a better prospect? Let me look at my assigned ranking and compensation value numbers. GM's make one hell of a lot of money for a good reason. A lot of people think they could do this for a living but the truth is that very few are even competent, much less good at being a GM.
That's how I would do it but I'm not a GM. I just play one on a message board. |
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VetSkinsFan
One Step Away
Joined: 19 Jul 2007
Posts: 7779
Location: NoVA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| fleetus wrote: | | KazooSkinsFan wrote: | | At 21 we definitely need to take the best player and not pick by position. Higher and you have some flexibility to still get a top player. Lower and we need to get some prospects in at position of need. But at 21 we're past the top players and if we're drafting for position that could mean we're really picking a late first round or even early second round player. At almost any position it's better to get some quality depth then doing that. About the only positions I don't think we'd get value and need for the pick would be kicker, punter, QB or RB. I have a hard time seeing those. But anything else I say we just take the best player unless it's a virtual tie between highest need and lesser need positions. |
Look at it like this. It takes at least two years for rookies to develop enough that they can help a team, usually. If we draft a WR, he is not very likely to be a big help (above your average veteran WR you could pick off the scrap heap of releases and June 1st cuts) The same goes for most all positions. RB's sometimes can be big factors as rookies. But QB's, WR's, and DL are all notoriously slow to develop. So if you pass on that SPECIAL player because you already have starters there, in two years, it is almost guaranteed that you won't have those SAME starters still there. One of them will have been injured, gotten old and unproductive, or is asking for too much money.
This is the difference between the Patriots and most of the rest of the league. The Patriots are drafting the best player available over and over again. They constantly add talented young players who do not have to start right away. Two years later, if that rookie has proven himself, he might get a shot to start.
If you draft for need, you are constantly trying to simply plug holes. Rookies are starting too early rather than learning the ropes first. They don't develop as well in this situation. And don't forget, you didn't pick the best player to begin with, you "settled" for the best at that position, then expected him to play like a veteran his first year there. We can use the second half of the draft to fill hoes for depth, if need be. But at least the first three rounds should be "Best Player Available". |
Of the Patriots last two years on active roster, they have exactly TWO draft choices still with them, so forget that. Three and four years ago were good draft years.
Any intelligent GM would have a combination of the two. It is complete idiocy to neglect a long term plan for 'the best player available' only. In our specific case, it is HIGHLY unlikely that we will find a SPECIAL player at 21. When that SPECIAL player comes along, such as LL did in the '07 draft, I think we HAVE done right by not wasting the opportunity. There are many many variables involved and it's too complex to simply say "Draft the best player." |
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GSPODS
Hog
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Posts: 4983
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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From Floyd Reese (Former GM):
Final tests: The final weeks before the draft are dedicated to a few final decision-making processes.
Scheduled visits for top prospects, or prospects of interest, will take place in the team's city. A group of players will be invited to visit with the coaches, owners, trainers, scouts and established players. During the visit, any questions involving character, injuries or background will be finalized.
It is not unusual for a player to have a lengthy session with a sports psychologist or a behavioral expert. Any specialized test on specific questionable health issues also will be administered. At this point, all questions on the player's mental, emotional or physical health will be finalized.
Pre-draft meetings: All of the information accumulated on each player is put on the table and compared to other players.
As I have said, even though the vast majority of a team's draft board is now in place, the stacking of each player, in each round, becomes important. For the final board to be complete, teams must now enter an endless process of comparing a cornerback at Penn State with a linebacker at UCLA or a quarterback at Alabama with a defensive tackle at Texas A&M.
What is his leaguewide value, when will he be taken, and what is his value to your club? The closer a team is to leaguewide standards, the better chance it has to prevent a draft day mistake. |
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fleetus
Hog
Joined: 25 Apr 2004
Posts: 1757
Location: Charlottesville, Va.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| GSPODS wrote: |
The best available player could land your team Robert Gallery or Ryan Leaf. |
Logic is obviously not your strong suit. Sorry, but the BASIC premise is that you have list of your favorite players. When you look at that list, you can either, A) pick the player at the TOP of your list, OR B) pass up the first 3 or 4 players until you see the first player who plays one specific position. Understand? Logically, the "best player available" almost ALWAYS is a better player. If this strategy lands you Ryan Leaf or Robert Gallery, it is because you SUCK at grading football players in the draft and would have NOTHING to do with your draft strategy. |
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