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TCIYM
Hog
Joined: 10 Apr 2009
Posts: 441
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 8:25 am Post subject: |
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| Red_One43 wrote: | From Pete_Prisco:
| Quote: | There have been some reports that the Washington Redskins are looking to trade up to draft a quarterback.
I hear it's the exact opposite.
According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton. |
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6315047/28610589
Hey TCIYM, is this another one whose "credible source" is BR? |
It is another blog, which means in journalistic circles that it requires no sourcing. Everyone knows that this time of year is the smoke and mirrors show. There Redskins have been reported to do everything from trade up for Gabbert, and even the experts are shooting that one down, to trading down with an unknown team for a quarterback unlikely to be there at #41, to trading down with New England for #17 for their quarterback of choice, to staying at #10 to guarantee they get their man, to drafting Julio Jones, to drafting Robert Quinn, to drafting Ryan Mallett at #10.
Nothing is believable at this point in time but even assuming the Redskins do intend to trade down and are able to do so, I have to think their interest in Ponder is greater than their interest in Dalton. Ponder is miles ahead in the football IQ department. He already gets it. He could step in immediately without getting himself killed. He might be the only quarterback in this draft who isn't a project or at least a work in progress. The only way I see the Redskins looking at Dalton is if they trade out of the first round and both Locker and Ponder are off the board.
Unless or until someone explains in sensible terms why the Redskins would be looking at Dalton over the other options I am not buying it, no matter how many blogs report the Redskins interest. |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| TCIYM wrote: | | Red_One43 wrote: | From Pete_Prisco:
| Quote: | There have been some reports that the Washington Redskins are looking to trade up to draft a quarterback.
I hear it's the exact opposite.
According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton. |
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6315047/28610589
Hey TCIYM, is this another one whose "credible source" is BR? |
It is another blog, which means in journalistic circles that it requires no sourcing. Everyone knows that this time of year is the smoke and mirrors show. There Redskins have been reported to do everything from trade up for Gabbert, and even the experts are shooting that one down, to trading down with an unknown team for a quarterback unlikely to be there at #41, to trading down with New England for #17 for their quarterback of choice, to staying at #10 to guarantee they get their man, to drafting Julio Jones, to drafting Robert Quinn, to drafting Ryan Mallett at #10.
Nothing is believable at this point in time but even assuming the Redskins do intend to trade down and are able to do so, I have to think their interest in Ponder is greater than their interest in Dalton. Ponder is miles ahead in the football IQ department. He already gets it. He could step in immediately without getting himself killed. He might be the only quarterback in this draft who isn't a project or at least a work in progress. The only way I see the Redskins looking at Dalton is if they trade out of the first round and both Locker and Ponder are off the board.
Unless or until someone explains in sensible terms why the Redskins would be looking at Dalton over the other options I am not buying it, no matter how many blogs report the Redskins interest. |
Good point about seeking QB who is more pro ready because of the sophistication of Kyle's offense. That description would fit Locker and Ponder. Ponder, it seems one could get at #41. Locker, it seems like more of a risk to wait for #41. One thing for sure, a rookie QB will not be a game #1 starter because of the time it takes to learn the O and it is not preferred to go into the season with only part of the playbook with a rookie and a O line that will be playing together for the first time.
I definitely don't see Dalton as #10. He appears to be everybody's fall back guy. I believe that Dalton will develop into a solid NFL QB especially on a team with a strong Defense who needs a game manager. That doesn't fit what the Skins are looking for. |
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SkinsJock
08 Champ
Joined: 24 Feb 2004
Posts: 11514
Location: New England
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:08 am Post subject: |
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It seems to me that there are basically 2 QB levels in this draft and none are what you might term can't miss, future great QBs - hopefully we find one (and I do think they add one in this draft) that can become a starting QB in the near future - I doubt that any that are realistically available at # 10 or lower, are really good enough to be starting QBs in the first year
Andy Dalton looks like he has as good a chance as any at being a good QB in the NFL |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:21 am Post subject: |
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| SkinsJock wrote: | | Andy Dalton looks like he has as good a chance as any at being a good QB in the NFL |
Right On! |
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Red_One43
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Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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From Fantasy Football Metrics:
| Quote: | | Andy Dalton is a "sleeper" among a few people that I consider "wise" on the NFL Draft process. This made me very intrigued to do the analysis on Dalton to see how he popped up on our mathematical formula. The numbers are coming up that Dalton is a potentially very good NFL QB, with some signs of a chance to be an elite NFL QB. |
You'll have to read the article to look the metrics he is talking about.
| Quote: | | My biggest negative on Dalton could be that the WAC/Mountain West QBs historically have been the thorn in my side on this mathematical formula for rating College QBs for NFL potential. Alex Smith (Utah) was truly amazing in his final season (statistically) and John Beck (BYU) was pretty good as well. They both rated well in our projections system, but both have looked terrible (to me) in the NFL. Certainly, neither Smith nor Beck have excited anyone in the NFL with their NFL career performances so far. Along comes another Mountain West QB draft prospect Andy Dalton, who is also projecting with very similar/nice numbers as well. Perhaps playing in the WAC/Mtn West is worthy of a special red-flag deduction/ratings penalty in our system. |
Beware of WAC QBs? I see our friend John is mentioned in there.
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_A.Dalton_2-17-2011.htm |
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TCIYM
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Joined: 10 Apr 2009
Posts: 441
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 9:39 am Post subject: |
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| Red_One43 wrote: | From Fantasy Football Metrics:
| Quote: | | Andy Dalton is a "sleeper" among a few people that I consider "wise" on the NFL Draft process. This made me very intrigued to do the analysis on Dalton to see how he popped up on our mathematical formula. The numbers are coming up that Dalton is a potentially very good NFL QB, with some signs of a chance to be an elite NFL QB. |
You'll have to read the article to look the metrics he is talking about.
| Quote: | | My biggest negative on Dalton could be that the WAC/Mountain West QBs historically have been the thorn in my side on this mathematical formula for rating College QBs for NFL potential. Alex Smith (Utah) was truly amazing in his final season (statistically) and John Beck (BYU) was pretty good as well. They both rated well in our projections system, but both have looked terrible (to me) in the NFL. Certainly, neither Smith nor Beck have excited anyone in the NFL with their NFL career performances so far. Along comes another Mountain West QB draft prospect Andy Dalton, who is also projecting with very similar/nice numbers as well. Perhaps playing in the WAC/Mtn West is worthy of a special red-flag deduction/ratings penalty in our system. |
Beware of WAC QBs? I see our friend John is mentioned in there.
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_A.Dalton_2-17-2011.htm |
There are a few flaws in the logic being used. One is Colt Brennan, who had far superior metrics to either quarterback being compared here. The other is Blaine Gabbert, who none of the experts gave a first round grade as recently as a month ago. Many still don't. I'd like to see comparisons to someone other than John Beck and Mark Sanchez as well as some track record or history of what is self-titled as fantasy football statistics. It looks like the author hand-picked comparisons that prove his formula. His strongest argument against, at least at a cursory glance, appears to be Dalton's height, or rather the lack thereof. He appears to be hedging his bets there as well.
| Quote: | | I think a Ricky Stanzi has the "sleeper QB" edge on Dalton -- both long time starters, very good numbers, lots of wins, character seems to be fine...but Stanzi is 2.1 inches taller at 6'4+. All other things being equal, if an NFL GM is faced with the choice of Stanzi or Dalton only, I think you would have to lean toward choosing Stanzi due to the physical consideration. An NFL team landing Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd Round may have an absolute steal on their hands. |
Lean toward choosing Stanzi over Dalton based solely upon height? Dalton lacks enough positive metrics to compensate for the 2.1 inches? Or could it be that what it takes to be an NFL quarterback cannot be reduced to metrics.
How's this for a metric? Quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round have an astronomical failure rate. They don't all fail. Some are actually quite good. Drew Brees comes to mind. Brees is also only 6'0". Five-time Pro Bowler, All Pro. Comeback Player Of The Year. Ten years and counting career. Set several Big Ten records. Lower metrics than Dalton, by the statistics being used. Is he saying Dalton will be better than Brees? His metrics say so, which leads me to question the entire process. I'd like to see the comparison broadened to enough players to lend it some validity. Comparisons with John Beck certainly don't make a case in point. |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| TCIYM wrote: | | Red_One43 wrote: | From Fantasy Football Metrics:
| Quote: | | Andy Dalton is a "sleeper" among a few people that I consider "wise" on the NFL Draft process. This made me very intrigued to do the analysis on Dalton to see how he popped up on our mathematical formula. The numbers are coming up that Dalton is a potentially very good NFL QB, with some signs of a chance to be an elite NFL QB. |
You'll have to read the article to look the metrics he is talking about.
| Quote: | | My biggest negative on Dalton could be that the WAC/Mountain West QBs historically have been the thorn in my side on this mathematical formula for rating College QBs for NFL potential. Alex Smith (Utah) was truly amazing in his final season (statistically) and John Beck (BYU) was pretty good as well. They both rated well in our projections system, but both have looked terrible (to me) in the NFL. Certainly, neither Smith nor Beck have excited anyone in the NFL with their NFL career performances so far. Along comes another Mountain West QB draft prospect Andy Dalton, who is also projecting with very similar/nice numbers as well. Perhaps playing in the WAC/Mtn West is worthy of a special red-flag deduction/ratings penalty in our system. |
Beware of WAC QBs? I see our friend John is mentioned in there.
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_A.Dalton_2-17-2011.htm |
There are a few flaws in the logic being used. One is Colt Brennan, who had far superior metrics to either quarterback being compared here. The other is Blaine Gabbert, who none of the experts gave a first round grade as recently as a month ago. Many still don't. I'd like to see comparisons to someone other than John Beck and Mark Sanchez as well as some track record or history of what is self-titled as fantasy football statistics. It looks like the author hand-picked comparisons that prove his formula. His strongest argument against, at least at a cursory glance, appears to be Dalton's height, or rather the lack thereof. He appears to be hedging his bets there as well.
| Quote: | | I think a Ricky Stanzi has the "sleeper QB" edge on Dalton -- both long time starters, very good numbers, lots of wins, character seems to be fine...but Stanzi is 2.1 inches taller at 6'4+. All other things being equal, if an NFL GM is faced with the choice of Stanzi or Dalton only, I think you would have to lean toward choosing Stanzi due to the physical consideration. An NFL team landing Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd Round may have an absolute steal on their hands. |
Lean toward choosing Stanzi over Dalton based solely upon height? Dalton lacks enough positive metrics to compensate for the 2.1 inches? Or could it be that what it takes to be an NFL quarterback cannot be reduced to metrics.
How's this for a metric? Quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round have an astronomical failure rate. They don't all fail. Some are actually quite good. Drew Brees comes to mind. Brees is also only 6'0". Five-time Pro Bowler, All Pro. Comeback Player Of The Year. Ten years and counting career. Set several Big Ten records. Lower metrics than Dalton, by the statistics being used. Is he saying Dalton will be better than Brees? His metrics say so, which leads me to question the entire process. I'd like to see the comparison broadened to enough players to lend it some validity. Comparisons with John Beck certainly don't make a case in point. |
Great feedback!!!
Comparisons with John Beck, at this point in his NFL career, is probably not a QB a NFL QB prospect wants to be compared. 
Now, here's a comparison that I like:
Drew Brees short QB from Texas. Andy Dalton short QB from Texas. I am going with Dalton. Now, only a Native Texan would think like that. |
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TCIYM
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Joined: 10 Apr 2009
Posts: 441
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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Not trying to create an impression I have anything against Andy Dalton. I don't. I'm just highly suspect of the evaluation methods so many of these experts use to draw their conclusions. It's just as possible Dalton is the best quarterback of this draft class as it is he is the 3rd round project backup he was originally projected to be. I wouldn't bet the farm on any quarterback in this class. Trumped up material that hedges and says a lot of nothing to fill space and meet deadlines doesn't impress me much. Unfortunately due to the lack of a CBA, that is most of the material we are seeing printed. A couple of hours ago, Ryan Mallett was moving up draft boards.  |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| TCIYM wrote: | | Not trying to create an impression I have anything against Andy Dalton. I don't. I'm just highly suspect of the evaluation methods so many of these experts use to draw their conclusions. It's just as possible Dalton is the best quarterback of this draft class as it is he is the 3rd round project backup he was originally projected to be. I wouldn't bet the farm on any quarterback in this class. Trumped up material that hedges and says a lot of nothing to fill space and meet deadlines doesn't impress me much. Unfortunately due to the lack of a CBA, that is most of the material we are seeing printed. A couple of hours ago, Ryan Mallett was moving up draft boards. |
Not a problem. I appeciate your responses on this topic. I am clearly biased toward Dalton, but realistically, the Shanny needs to pick the guy who is more ready for out O. The best fit is a key for a player and teams success. That may be Locker or Ponder and if Shanny chooses them over any other, I will support that and hope that he is right, but I still believe that guy will sit the entire year and be ready for season three - which is the year that Shanny stops tinkering and expects to see the foundation of a franchise that will win for years to come. |
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Red_One43
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Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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Dalton is getting a lot of attention these days:
| Quote: | | Peter King’s story in this week’s Sports Illustrated about the way teams scrutinize quarterbacks concludes with that detail: An unnamed coach couldn’t think of any great read-headed quarterbacks and admitted to thinking that Dalton, a redhead, might be lacking something that quarterbacks need. |
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/20/red-hair-a-red-flag-for-andy-dalton/
Hey coach, you ever heard of Sonny Jurgensen? |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
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Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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Sammy Baugh
Robert Layne
Yelberton Tittle
Don Meredith
Drew Brees
Next in the line of Great NFL Quarterbacks from the state of Texas --
Andy Dalton |
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TCIYM
Hog
Joined: 10 Apr 2009
Posts: 441
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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For What It's Worth:
| Quote: | | ESPN's Adam Schefter: "It doesn't look like either Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton is going to make it into the second round." |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| TCIYM wrote: | For What It's Worth:
| Quote: | | ESPN's Adam Schefter: "It doesn't look like either Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton is going to make it into the second round." |
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This is looking more and more like Locker will be pick at #10. I have never heard of Shanny falling out of love for a player, at least before he gets a chance to work with him. |
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frankcal20
^^^^^^^
Joined: 24 Mar 2004
Posts: 8965
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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What makes you think we take a QB at 10? There will be an elite player at the #10 spot that other teams need and will be willing to trade for.
Houston who picks right after us needs Defense. Minnesotta is going to draft a QB at 10. I think they go DT or WR if Jones is still on the board.
There are a lot of options out there and not many, in my opinion equal taking a QB at the #10 spot.
My thoughts are that there isn't a single QB in this year's draft that I am confident can go in and start today. There is no QB who ranks anywhere close to Stafford, Sanchez or any of the other guys.
I would compare a lot of these players to those that need work like Colt McCoy or Claussen. |
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Red_One43
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Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 4606
Location: D.C.
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="frankcal20"] | Quote: | | What makes you think we take a QB at 10? There will be an elite player at the #10 spot that other teams need and will be willing to trade for. |
My answer below
| Quote: | | Houston who picks right after us needs Defense. Minnesotta is going to draft a QB at 10. I think they go DT or WR if Jones is still on the board. |
What about Seattle later in the draft - drafting the hometown (UW) hero?
| Quote: | | There are a lot of options out there and not many, in my opinion equal taking a QB at the #10 spot. |
I agree. I am just trying to guess what's on Shanny's mind. Just like last year towards the draft, the "experts started getting it right that Shany was going after Williams. The rumors are starting to say Locker with counter rumors starting to say Dalton. I believe the Dalton rumors are to mask the Locker choice. I like to be right, but on this one, I want to be wrong. i have been saying all along that I would be OK with a QB at #41.
| Quote: | | My thoughts are that there isn't a single QB in this year's draft that I am confident can go in and start today. There is no QB who ranks anywhere close to Stafford, Sanchez or any of the other guys. |
+1
| Quote: | | I would compare a lot of these players to those that need work like Colt McCoy or Claussen. |
Tell me you didn't put Colt in the same sentence as Jimmy. Colt proved that he belongs in this league. Jimmy has not.
As to your question, what makes me think... He liked Locker last year. Have you ever heard of Shanahan falling out of like or love of a prospect that he hadn't worked with? There is a good chance that Locker wil not be around at #41. IF Mike wants Locker, he will get him. As far as playing. I keep saying that Kyle's offense is too complex to expect any rookie to come in an play this year. If Mike believes he has a year to work with Locker and coach him up, then Mike will feel that he has his QB of the future. (You know what happens when Mike believes that he can coach someone up). My belief is Mike sees the priority in season 2 as a another tinkering season to get his pieces in place. I think Mike wants to be competing for a Super Bowl berth by season three - he almost has to get his QB this year for that piece to be ready for season three. Mike recognizes the value of a good QB. He doesn't have one right now.
Now since I believe that this is a tinkering season, he could go after Bulger (your suggestion) and take his chances the Bulger holds up for season three and if he doesn't Grossman or Beck will be there to pick up the slack. If this is the case, Expect to see O linemen prioritzed in FA and Defense emphasized in the Draft. NT will be an FA probably Kris Jenkins. Do you like this one better than Locker in the first round? I do.
Next year, HAS to get his QB under this last scenario. I know that he salivates over Luck, but no chance to get him next year or I say little chance - Bye, Bye draft choices. |
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