why we should trade up for a franchise QB

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why we should trade up for a franchise QB

Postby Skeletor » Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:26 am

There's been a lot of discussion over whether we should trade multiple draft picks to move and get RG3 or even Andrew Luck. While I'm generally not in favor of trading up in the draft, I do think it makes sense from a quarterback perspective. For one, this is a quarterback driven league and I'm convinced that's what separates the mediocre from the playoff contenders.

The question becomes do you undercut your long term success if you trade multiple high picks for a franchise QB? It doesn't seem to have hurt the Giants who traded up to get Eli Manning or nor the Bears who became relevant again after trading multiple high picks for Cutler.

The key, of course, is that the guy you go get actually pans out. If you trade high picks to get a Matt Cassell or Kevin Kolb, you haven't found a franchise QB and you're hamstrung for the next year or two. But you're still hamstrung if you don't pull that trade, because you don't have franchise QB anyway.

But the final point is that teams that don't go get a franchise quarterback still wind up using multiple high draft picks trying to find one. Consider the Skins' draft records since Joe Gibbs I.

High draft picks spent on quarterbacks
1994 Health Shuler (1st)
1998 Brad Johnson (1st, 2nd, and 3rd)
2002 Patrick Ramsey (1st)
2004 Mark Brunell (2nd)
2005 Jason Campbell (1st and a 2nd)
2010 Donovan McNabb (2nd & 4th)

Hopefully I'm not forgetting anybody in that list. But you can see that over 17 years, the Skins spent four 1st round picks and four 2nd round picks trying to find that franchise QB. Now if you hit on a franchise quarterback I think you can count on him playing at least 8 to 10 years. The Skins have been using two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks to find a QB every 8 to 10 years anyway. In other words, we've been paying the price for an RG3 or an Andrew Luck but getting that cast of characters above.

Yes, it's debatable whether two 1st and two 2nd round picks would get you Luck, or whether either of those guys will pan out to be a franchise quarterback. But if Shanahan & Son are convinced either of those are the real deal, they need to go get him. Otherwise, they'll be spending another 1st and/or 2nd on the position in another couple of years.

Yes it might hurt in terms of draft picks the next year, but then you can spend your next 8 to 10 first round picks on the other positions. So you can use three to four high draft picks all at once, or spread them out over 10 years. The cost is the same, but the result might be markedly different.

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Postby SkinsJock » Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:36 am

Bruce and Mike are looking ahead and planning on how to have another draft as good as or even better than the last draft

we will see a slew of QBs in here - both free agents and college - we will NOT see Grossman or Beck as our starting QB

EVERYTHING will be focused on what to do to continue what they've started here

the past history of this franchise and their own mistakes are all behind them & have NO effect on our future

they might trade players they are NOT trading draft picks

they will add to the draft picks they have now


the Washington Redskins will be a playoff franchise in 2012
Minds are like parachutes, they only work when they are open

RG3 will benefit from having a full off season to prepare and a better 'fit' at both HC and OC

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Postby The Hogster » Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:46 am

It's going to cost more than 2 1st round picks to move up to get Luck. That's assuming that the Colts will even do the trade.While I am a fan of RG3--a big fan--it's too early to say that he's a franchise QB. I think he will become a good pro, but let's not act like the ink has dried on his HOF speech.

I also disagree with your comparisons--such as the Giants and Bears, because those teams were actually good already. They had rosters with talent.

The Giants have consistently had one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL over the last decade. They've also had a more than solid offensive line. Their defense has been fairly decent overall. Accordingly, they made move to get a franchise QB and they got one.

The Bears were in the Superbowl this decade (with Grossman I might add). The Giants went twice. Needless to say, the Bears had the nucleus of a good defense and special teams. They needed a QB badly, and still haven't won anything.

The Redskins are quite a different story. We spent the better part of the early 2000s trading away picks that would have given us youth and talent at key spots like O Line & D Line. And, we instead went for free agent luxuries. The results were crap for good reason. We are in a rebuild. We are acquiring talent to fill long standing holes. We aren't a QB away. That's why I'm not in favor of trading several 1st and 2nd round picks for RG3.

We need to assemble a good team around him first. We aren't there. We need those picks.

What if RG3 is not as dynamic as a pro as he appears? What if he is dynamic, but is often injured like Vick?? Then what do you do when you've given away multiple picks for a guy whose not on the field, or is getting killed when he is on it??

That's not team building. It's hoping. Hoping a guy can lead mediocre players to consistent wins. Hoping he can stay healthy. Hoping we sign Free Agents who still want to play. Hoping Hoping Hoping. I'm tired of hoping. I ready to start building. So we can start WINNING.
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Postby frankcal20 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:25 pm

Good talent evaluators find guys who have upside and can be brought in for a value. Right now, these two players have a lot of demand and while we all want the next "Great QB" there is substantial risk involved because of the required compensation.

I keep reading that we should trade picks for RG3. To move in front of Cleveland, it's going to require several 1st round picks and a 2nd or two just to get there. I am not totally sure that he's a fit for shannys system and to top that off, I'm not sold on the idea that he's ready to play in the NFL. I really do like watching him play but the pro-game is very different. One thing that set him a part was his speed in college. The games a hell of a lot faster in the NFL so one of his greatest weapons would be taken away from him because pro players are bigger, strong, & faster.

I want a QB in here who is moderatly athletic, smart and has a good accurate arm. Is that too much to ask? I don't care if he's a 1st or a 7th round pick. I want him to come into a system that he can perform and have players around him that perform. I don't think we're ready for a rookie QB to come in and be successful. Not trying to be pessimistic. I'm trying to be realistic in my expectations for any QB -FA or Rookie. I think there is a better use for our 1st round pick than QB and I really do hope we trade down, acquire more picks and get a QB later who's a better fit for our offense.

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Postby Skeletor » Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:34 pm

Just to clarify, because I think people are misreading what I wrote, I'm not saying that RG3 or Luck are sure-fire franchise qbs. Clearly none of us are talent evaluators nor know how a qb will fit into Shanny's system.

My point is solely that a franchise qb is clearly worth giving up multiple draft picks because you're doing it anyway. And if Shanny & Co identify a guy they think is the real deal--this year, next year, free agency or draft--they should pull the trigger and give up the picks.

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Postby Mississippi Hog » Fri Jan 06, 2012 12:38 pm

Just sayin, but what if he turns out a season like Cam Newton did. Some have said he is a cross between Newton and Vick. He has a great arm, and is a pass first QB. He runs when he has to. Might turn out to be a pretty good pick. That said, I wouldn't give up too much for him. The price has to be right.

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Postby elprez19 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:09 pm

I think we are at the point in this franchise that we are willing to give up a couple 1st rounders to get the "franchise qb". Shanny has a good history of evaluating good qbs who fit his system with talent. The cards all in with Sanahan and Allen for the rebuild. Its coming along I think and if they want Luck or RG3, which I love both, then that is fine with me and should be fine with everyone else. Its kind of a gamble with any qb but its one you have to take. I dont want to have this same conversation 4 yrs from now and in the same draft position because we didnt act on a potential star. These guys are rated very high and if shanny thinks they are worthy of some high picks then let it be done. It starts with qb and Oline. Get em and lets go. We fixed our dfense with free agents pretty much and can be done this yr on offense. I think we are close to contending, just need some more depth. Priorites are qb, OLine, and WR(Bowe) and damn it, fix the kicking game.

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Postby Deadskins » Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:09 pm

frankcal20 wrote:To move in front of Cleveland, it's going to require several 1st round picks and a 2nd or two just to get there.

I doubt that. We're talking about moving up a few spots, not to a different round.
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Postby SCSkinsFan » Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:45 pm

This is what I said in a previous post on the related subject of our QB situation.

All indications point to the fact that we aren't going to be drafting high enough to get either Luck or RGIII. And the teams ahead of us would want way too much for us to mortgage our future to try to move up to get one of them. Best scenario I have seen so far is that we sign Matt Flynn in free Agency and draft J. Blackmon with our 6th pick. QB + game changing playmaker. I kind of like that scenario. :D
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Postby Skeletor » Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:04 pm

I like your avatar SCSkinsFan. I came across a retro Sonny Jurgenson jersey in a TJ Maxx about 10 years ago and still kick myself for not buying it...

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Re: why we should trade up for a franchise QB

Postby RayNAustin » Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:27 pm

Skeletor wrote:There's been a lot of discussion over whether we should trade multiple draft picks to move and get RG3 or even Andrew Luck. While I'm generally not in favor of trading up in the draft, I do think it makes sense from a quarterback perspective. For one, this is a quarterback driven league and I'm convinced that's what separates the mediocre from the playoff contenders.

The question becomes do you undercut your long term success if you trade multiple high picks for a franchise QB? It doesn't seem to have hurt the Giants who traded up to get Eli Manning or nor the Bears who became relevant again after trading multiple high picks for Cutler.

The key, of course, is that the guy you go get actually pans out. If you trade high picks to get a Matt Cassell or Kevin Kolb, you haven't found a franchise QB and you're hamstrung for the next year or two. But you're still hamstrung if you don't pull that trade, because you don't have franchise QB anyway.

But the final point is that teams that don't go get a franchise quarterback still wind up using multiple high draft picks trying to find one. Consider the Skins' draft records since Joe Gibbs I.

High draft picks spent on quarterbacks
1994 Health Shuler (1st)
1998 Brad Johnson (1st, 2nd, and 3rd)
2002 Patrick Ramsey (1st)
2004 Mark Brunell (2nd)
2005 Jason Campbell (1st and a 2nd)
2010 Donovan McNabb (2nd & 4th)

Hopefully I'm not forgetting anybody in that list. But you can see that over 17 years, the Skins spent four 1st round picks and four 2nd round picks trying to find that franchise QB. Now if you hit on a franchise quarterback I think you can count on him playing at least 8 to 10 years. The Skins have been using two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks to find a QB every 8 to 10 years anyway. In other words, we've been paying the price for an RG3 or an Andrew Luck but getting that cast of characters above.

Yes, it's debatable whether two 1st and two 2nd round picks would get you Luck, or whether either of those guys will pan out to be a franchise quarterback. But if Shanahan & Son are convinced either of those are the real deal, they need to go get him. Otherwise, they'll be spending another 1st and/or 2nd on the position in another couple of years.

Yes it might hurt in terms of draft picks the next year, but then you can spend your next 8 to 10 first round picks on the other positions. So you can use three to four high draft picks all at once, or spread them out over 10 years. The cost is the same, but the result might be markedly different.


Excellent post. Clear, logical, and true.

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Postby SkinsJock » Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:29 pm

Deadskins wrote:
frankcal20 wrote:To move in front of Cleveland, it's going to require several 1st round picks and a 2nd or two just to get there.

I doubt that. We're talking about moving up a few spots, not to a different round.


I don't think we give up draft picks to move out of the #6 spot - I think they take RGIII if he's there
I actually think they try the trade down deal again

I understand the fierce support of those that want to "do whatever it takes" - just don't think it happens

totally agree that QB is a big issue but I don't think we can stop what these guys have started to put together here
Minds are like parachutes, they only work when they are open

RG3 will benefit from having a full off season to prepare and a better 'fit' at both HC and OC

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Postby PAPDOG67 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:29 pm

SCSkinsFan wrote:This is what I said in a previous post on the related subject of our QB situation.

All indications point to the fact that we aren't going to be drafting high enough to get either Luck or RGIII. And the teams ahead of us would want way too much for us to mortgage our future to try to move up to get one of them. Best scenario I have seen so far is that we sign Matt Flynn in free Agency and draft J. Blackmon with our 6th pick. QB + game changing playmaker. I kind of like that scenario. :D


I don't mind this move at all. I would be on board for Blackmon, or even trading down, aquiring more picks and getting Jeffrey somewhere in the teens. Then we can possibly trade back into the late first to grab Tannehill or Wilson. I would have really loved to get Barkley as I think he will be a stud, but he chose to stay. I really think Barkley will be just as lauded over as Andrew Luck is in this year's draft.

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Postby SkinsJock » Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:38 pm

SCSkinsFan wrote:All indications point to the fact that we aren't going to be drafting high enough to get either Luck or RGIII. And the teams ahead of us would want way too much for us to mortgage our future to try to move up to get one of them.
Best scenario I have seen so far is that we sign Matt Flynn in free Agency and draft J. Blackmon with our 6th pick. QB + game changing playmaker. I kind of like that scenario.


THIS would be OK if we were not in need of so many players - we are not able to just fine tune the offense yet

We are not far off but we do have a lot of positions to not only fill but also to have some quality depth


This FO is NOT taking a RB or WR with the #6 pick in this draft
Minds are like parachutes, they only work when they are open

RG3 will benefit from having a full off season to prepare and a better 'fit' at both HC and OC

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Postby StorminMormon86 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 2:51 pm

SCSkinsFan wrote:Best scenario I have seen so far is that we sign Matt Flynn in free Agency and draft J. Blackmon with our 6th pick. QB + game changing playmaker. I kind of like that scenario. :D

I agree wholeheartedly. I do NOT want to waste draft picks on ANYONE. Sign Flynn, take a rookie QB in a later round, and then take Blackmon with the #6 pick in the first round. That is, if the Rams don't take him first.

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