why we should trade up for a franchise QB

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Postby Irn-Bru » Fri Feb 03, 2012 3:07 pm

The Hogster wrote:The last time the Redskins were in this position was 1994. They were picking 3rd and needed a QB.

That year, we drafted Heath Shuler 3rd overall. The next QB taken was Trent Dilfer. The Redskins also drafted Gus Frerotte in something like the 5th round.

As fate would have it, Heath Shuler was a bust. Trent Dilfer stunk with the Bucs, and went to the Ravens where he benefited from one of the greatest Defenses of All Time.

Ferrotte became a better QB than Shuler which was not hard by any stretch.

But, low and behold. Two UNDRAFTED free agents that year were:

(1) Kurt Warner
(2) Jeff Garcia

The moral of this story is everything that glitters ain't gold. So, unbunch your panties.


There will always be outliers, but the teams who try to make their living off finding the diamond in the rough succeed about as often as they find those gems (i.e., hardly ever).

Anyone can sit around criticizing teams that use high draft picks on QBs simply by pointing to Tom Brady. It really doesn't prove anything, though.

Drafting a QB in the first round and looking for one among the unwanted are both lotteries in a sense. But they don't share the same odds. I'd prefer that our FO go with the route that is much more correlated with finding competitive QBs.
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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Fri Feb 03, 2012 3:20 pm

The Hogster wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:
The Hogster wrote:The last time the Redskins were in this position was 1994. They were picking 3rd and needed a QB.

That year, we drafted Heath Shuler 3rd overall. The next QB taken was Trent Dilfer. The Redskins also drafted Gus Frerotte in something like the 5th round.

As fate would have it, Heath Shuler was a bust. Trent Dilfer stunk with the Bucs, and went to the Ravens where he benefited from one of the greatest Defenses of All Time.

Ferrotte became a better QB than Shuler which was not hard by any stretch.

But, low and behold. Two UNDRAFTED free agents that year were:

(1) Kurt Warner
(2) Jeff Garcia

The moral of this story is everything that glitters ain't gold. So, unbunch your panties.


Anecdotal arguments are always so persuasive. Actually high draft picks are highly correlated with success in NFL quarterbacks. Correlation is another word for that you can make ex-post arguments, as you did, that sound persuasive when they aren't because drafts are ex-ante propositions. And you can unclench now...


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Postby The Hogster » Fri Feb 03, 2012 3:59 pm

Irn-Bru wrote:
The Hogster wrote:The last time the Redskins were in this position was 1994. They were picking 3rd and needed a QB.

That year, we drafted Heath Shuler 3rd overall. The next QB taken was Trent Dilfer. The Redskins also drafted Gus Frerotte in something like the 5th round.

As fate would have it, Heath Shuler was a bust. Trent Dilfer stunk with the Bucs, and went to the Ravens where he benefited from one of the greatest Defenses of All Time.

Ferrotte became a better QB than Shuler which was not hard by any stretch.

But, low and behold. Two UNDRAFTED free agents that year were:

(1) Kurt Warner
(2) Jeff Garcia

The moral of this story is everything that glitters ain't gold. So, unbunch your panties.


There will always be outliers, but the teams who try to make their living off finding the diamond in the rough succeed about as often as they find those gems (i.e., hardly ever).

Anyone can sit around criticizing teams that use high draft picks on QBs simply by pointing to Tom Brady. It really doesn't prove anything, though.

Drafting a QB in the first round and looking for one among the unwanted are both lotteries in a sense. But they don't share the same odds. I'd prefer that our FO go with the route that is much more correlated with finding competitive QBs.


So would I, but you can't just draft a guy in Round 1 and expect him to be the franchise. This is especially true when you pick 6th, and the best 2 QBs are projected to go 1 and 2. And, the other QB starved team picks 2 spots ahead of you AND, has 2 first round picks this year.

It's a no brainer that the best QBs usually go in round 1. And, no I'm not advocating that we go looking for a diamond in the rough. However, you can't make a QB out of thin air. Landry Jones and Barkley are staying in school. If we can't trade up, then you guys need to face that reality and consider what our options will be.

My point is that all is not lost if we cannot land RG3 this year. Some of you guys apparently are already on a ledge somewhere with a mock draft in one hand and whiskey in the other. Not me. If RG3 is there take him. But, if he's not, you can't just let time expire. The show must go on. And, if history is correct, some team will benefit from a QB not named Griffin or Luck.
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Postby Deadskins » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:04 pm

The Hogster wrote:So would I, but you can't just draft a guy in Round 1 and expect him to be the franchise. This is especially true when you pick 6th, and the best 2 QBs are projected to go 1 and 2. And, the other QB starved team picks 2 spots ahead of you AND, has 2 first round picks this year.

See, I don't buy your contention that the Browns are QB starved, or that they are going to trade up to get RGIII. I think they will go for a FA QB to compete with McCoy, and use their #4 pick to take Blackmon.
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Postby The Hogster » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:09 pm

Deadskins wrote:
The Hogster wrote:So would I, but you can't just draft a guy in Round 1 and expect him to be the franchise. This is especially true when you pick 6th, and the best 2 QBs are projected to go 1 and 2. And, the other QB starved team picks 2 spots ahead of you AND, has 2 first round picks this year.

See, I don't buy your contention that the Browns are QB starved, or that they are going to trade up to get RGIII. I think they will go for a FA QB to compete with McCoy, and use their #4 pick to take Blackmon.


Well then great. If that's the case, RGIII could fall to us. Which is even better.
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Postby Kilmer72 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:39 pm

emoses14 wrote:
INDIANAPOLIS -- The Indianapolis Colts have the first pick of the draft, and owner Jim Irsay said they'll take a quarterback. He hasn't said which one, but he doesn't need to. If it's not Andrew Luck, we have a story.

But there are nearly three months to the draft, and there are no guarantees. I know because I sat down Friday morning with the second-best quarterback, Robert Griffin III, who may be the second pick of the draft too, and he reminded me of the facts of life.

"I don't think anything in life is a done deal or guaranteed or a sure shot," said the Heisman Trophy winner. "So I'm going to do my best to show every team out there that I'm the best, and that's all I can do.

"I can't talk bad about Andrew. I like the guy. I've met him many times. He's a good player. I just feel that I'm the best, and that's how I'm going to carry myself."

There seems little chance that Indianapolis would take anyone but Luck, but that's what we thought in 2006 when then-Southern California running back Reggie Bush was a slam-dunk for Houston. Then the Texans passed on the guy, drafted Mario Williams, and so much for virtual certainties.

But there were off-the-field concerns with Bush, particularly with signability. There are none with Luck. Nevertheless, Griffin won't rule himself out of the Colts' picture and said he welcomes the opportunity to sit and learn behind a Peyton Manning -- or any veteran, for that matter -- if that is what is asked.

"I try not to expect anything in life," said Griffin. "I work hard. You expect success. That's about it. You don't expect anything with change. So if you walk in, and I'm the starter, I'm fine with that. If that's what the team needs me to do.

"If I walk in and they say, 'We want you to sit for a few games or a year or two years,' then that's what I'm going to do because you can't go in and be greedy right away. But I'll definitely compete with whoever I get drafted to."

And if that's the Colts and Peyton Manning?

"Then that's fine," he said. "Peyton's a legend, and nobody should take that away from him. He's done a lot for this city, and he deserves to be here. If they draft me here, and he's here I'll take that as an honor and get as good as I can get and get as much information out of him as I possibly can to continue to be successful.

"Obviously, Peyton's situation is a little more ideal ... to sit behind a veteran like him who's been successful and been with a team for a long time. If another team drafts me, and they bring in a free-agent QB or has a guy on the roster who's a veteran, I won't be mad about that. Either way, we're all out there competing. Even if I do sit behind or get drafted by the Colts with Peyton, we're all out there competing to make each other better."

If Griffin sits, I can't imagine it would be for long. The guy is the complete package, an accurate quarterback who is a threat to run, and if he's not going to the Colts, he's going to a club that almost surely needs someone to step in at quarterback immediately.

Plus, look what happened to rookie quarterbacks this season: There was success everywhere, with Cam Newton breaking records and Andy Dalton leading Cincinnati to the playoffs in their first seasons.

"I thought it was great," said Griffin. "I always felt if you can play football at any level and be successful, you can move up a level and be successful too. It's all about what's between your ears and the confidence that you have in your ability. Those guys are extremely confident, and a quarterback's best friend is a coach who loves him and is going to take care of him and never put you in a bad situation."

Griffin's immediate plans included visits with the media Friday, a flight out of town later and a return to pre-combine workouts in Arizona. He said he wouldn't stay for the Super Bowl because "I want to earn my way here."

I like that. I also like that he's willing to wait on success, if that's what is necessary ... and I can't imagine it will be.

"There's no problem with sitting behind a guy like Peyton Manning," he said. "There's also no problem with starting like [Christian] Ponder and Dalton and Newton did. It's all about what that team needs and not necessarily what you want. Everyone wants to play. You'll never meet a football player who doesn't want to be on the field. So that's all you can say."

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/stor ... ort-either

Every single time I read about this kid, I like him more and more. Doesn't mean he'll be a good/great/elite, just that he's got a GREAT head on his shoulders.



I know...He seems to have everything emoses14. Intelligent, accurate and athletic.

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Postby Irn-Bru » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:33 am

The Hogster wrote:
Irn-Bru wrote:There will always be outliers, but the teams who try to make their living off finding the diamond in the rough succeed about as often as they find those gems (i.e., hardly ever).

Anyone can sit around criticizing teams that use high draft picks on QBs simply by pointing to Tom Brady. It really doesn't prove anything, though.

Drafting a QB in the first round and looking for one among the unwanted are both lotteries in a sense. But they don't share the same odds. I'd prefer that our FO go with the route that is much more correlated with finding competitive QBs.

So would I, but you can't just draft a guy in Round 1 and expect him to be the franchise.

Well it's a good thing that we're talking about a specific player and specific circumstances, then, isn't it? ;) Can we move on from the straw man?


This is especially true when you pick 6th, and the best 2 QBs are projected to go 1 and 2. And, the other QB starved team picks 2 spots ahead of you AND, has 2 first round picks this year.

It's been pretty well established that the Browns are going to get the #2 pick if they want it. So this point really isn't relevant to us, because either the Browns will get it, or they are a nonfactor in RGIII. If it's the former, we can't get him no matter what we do. If it's the latter, there's no "especially true" to contend with. We have the resources and the inside track to move up and get him.


It's a no brainer that the best QBs usually go in round 1. And, no I'm not advocating that we go looking for a diamond in the rough. However, you can't make a QB out of thin air. Landry Jones and Barkley are staying in school. If we can't trade up, then you guys need to face that reality and consider what our options will be.

No problem with facing reality here. :up:

I've only ever advocated for very realistic trades and scenarios to get RGIII. If we don't get him because the Browns take him, then there's nothing we could do about it. (And as I laid out in another thread, I think we should go after Blackmon and try to get one of the top QBs in the next draft.) We will still need to do something about the QB situation.

However, what happens if we have the opportunity to trade up to get RGIII (or Luck, in the unlikely event that the Colts go with Griffin), we don't make the move, and he's gone by #6? In my opinion this is the relevant scenario that's in debate. Everything else is either irrelevant or a peripheral matter. The question is: do we move up if the scenario presents itself?


My point is that all is not lost if we cannot land RG3 this year. Some of you guys apparently are already on a ledge somewhere with a mock draft in one hand and whiskey in the other. Not me.

I'm not sure who you are talking about here, but since you are responding to my post I can only assume you are trying to send a message to me at least in part. :lol:

Well, since we're making up extreme characters to argue against, how about this: some of you guys seem to think we're going to be fine with Grossman and Beck under center for another season. It's time to wake up and smell the coffee, etc. . . .

Look, I don't really care if someone happens to share my view that we should draft RGIII and also thinks that the Redskins franchise won't exist in 2013 if we don't get him (or that the world is flat, or that coffee should have sugar in it . . .). I'm not interested in defending against that kind of crap.


If RG3 is there take him. But, if he's not, you can't just let time expire.

Obviously if RGIII is there are six you take him. But as I point out above, the actual question people are debating is whether, if RGIII is there at two (or three) and we have a chance to trade up, we do so.

Sitting tight at six and thinking RGIII will fall to us is not a strategy. It's a plan to do something else with the pick.
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Postby SkinsJock » Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:48 pm

I'm all for trading up - as long as the deal does not involve a bunch of draft picks :D



I'm getting the feeling that some would do anything to get RGIII

good luck with that

I have more faith in this FO :D
RG3 is now learning how to play QB in the NFL - Mike & Kyle did not help with the transition

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Postby Deadskins » Sun Feb 05, 2012 2:24 am

SkinsJock wrote:I'm all for trading up - as long as the deal does not involve a bunch of draft picks :D



I'm getting the feeling that some would do anything to get RGIII

good luck with that

I have more faith in this FO :D

No one's talking about doing a "Ditka" or anything, but I could see a couple of firsts plus... :roll:
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Postby The Hogster » Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:59 pm

Whether we trade up, trade down. Sign Flynn, Manning or Orton, this will be a pivotal and exciting offseason. And, next year, this team will be better than it is now.
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Postby SkinsJock » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:05 pm

The Browns are THE key - IF they want RGIII, having 2 1st round picks this year means they get to push up the trade value

IF the Redskins really want RGIII - we'd then know we need to begin by offering more than the Browns :lol:

SO ..... we might be looking at 2 first round picks, and then ....
It's not hard to get to 4, and possibly 5 draft picks in the top 50 players of this and next years' draft

that's OK with me ....

I just think we're better off in 2014 and beyond with those players


I think RGIII will be special, and will be fun to watch playing in the NFL

this FO understands that the Redskins MUST find a way to get better play from the QB


stick with the plan
RG3 is now learning how to play QB in the NFL - Mike & Kyle did not help with the transition

Jay & Sean are going to make it happen ... "the things we’re doing are things he’s comfortable with & complement his strengths"

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Postby StorminMormon86 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:08 am

Deadskins wrote:See, I don't buy your contention that the Browns are QB starved, or that they are going to trade up to get RGIII. I think they will go for a FA QB to compete with McCoy, and use their #4 pick to take Blackmon.

I hope so, but I thought that I read that Holmgren said that they were not going to go after a FA QB. I think it was when the possibility of the Browns going after Flynn, so that kind of scares me. I don't think the organization has any faith in McCoy. And I keep hearing that Shanahan's "guy" was Barkley, but he chose to stay in school. Makes you wonder if he's going to bypass on a QB in Round 1 since his "guy" isn't there this year. It'll be an interesting and exciting offseason for sure.

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Postby SkinsJock » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:47 am

Deadskins wrote:... I don't buy your contention that the Browns are QB starved, or that they are going to trade up to get RGIII.
I think they will go for a FA QB to compete with McCoy, and use their #4 pick to take Blackmon.


THIS would be great ... I think the problem is the Redskins have to take a chance that RGIII falls to them at 6 OR decide to trade the picks needed to take that risk away

it looks like a bunch of picks will do that .....

I hope they don't do that - then again .... I think this franchise is going to be in the playoffs
RG3 is now learning how to play QB in the NFL - Mike & Kyle did not help with the transition

Jay & Sean are going to make it happen ... "the things we’re doing are things he’s comfortable with & complement his strengths"

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Postby chiefhog44 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:02 pm

Do you think the Giants are happy that they traded the following for Eli Manning to move from 4 to 1?

Swap of picks in the 1st (Manning for Rivers) and their 3rd rounder in 2004
And
1st rounder and 5th rounder in 2005

I'd say they don't even remember those picks gone...
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Postby Chris Luva Luva » Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:13 pm

chiefhog44 wrote:Do you think the Giants are happy that they traded the following for Eli Manning to move from 4 to 1?

Swap of picks in the 1st (Manning for Rivers) and their 3rd rounder in 2004
And
1st rounder and 5th rounder in 2005

I'd say they don't even remember those picks gone...


I dont think you realize the firestorm that you've potentially just lit. LOLOLOL

To answer your question, yes.
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