Why not Do it Again....WRs.. Who stays - Who goes?

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kazoo
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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:04 am

Deadskins wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:
The Hogster wrote:Brandon Banks is not in competition with the WRs


This is true in a way, but actually he is because some of the receivers are competing with him for return duties. And that one of the receivers is a special teams player is typically why teams would carry six receivers. They don't usually carry six..plus...a special teamer. I seriously doubt we need six plus a special teamer as well, we're not getting six guys regular action. I'm not saying Banks won't make it because of special teams, I'm pointing out your statement is only partially true.

I do agree though that Gaffney is on the bubble.

Didn't we keep seven plus Banks last year?


I thought it was seven including Banks, but if you're saying it was seven plus him I'm not calling you a liar.

And what a waste it was, we still only got regular production from two. Though that was improvement over the several years before that we only got regular production from one...
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Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

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#33
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Postby skinsfan#33 » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:28 am

Irn-Bru wrote:
skinsfan#33 wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:
Chris Luva Luva wrote:Anthony Armstrong will make a comeback if RGIII's deep ball Accuracy translates to the NFL.

Rex isnt accurate deep, nor does he have the arm strength to lead the receiver. AA's off season had a lot to do with Rex.


I'm tired of waiting for him to learn how to catch.


Just so you know he officially had zero drops last year!

Now he only caught 7 passes out of the 27 targets, but stats inc (official nfl stats) said he dropped no balls!


The official NFL stats for drops are worse than useless. You have to rely on other game charters for that information.


No, they are not! Every player is graded on the same scale w/o fan colored glasses messing with your prescription.

Now could there be better stats out thee that grade a wr on percentage of catches made when compared to balls that could have possibly been caught. I have never seen them and would love it if you would share if you know where you can find something like that.

Look I know the official stats only count balls that were clearly dropped and don't count an incomplete pass that could have been caught if the WR made a really good play. I have heard many fans say some one dropped a catch when the ball was thrown behind the player and into coverage where the db had just as much chance to catch the ball a the wr. Most "drops" fans blame on a wr aren't drops at all they are bad throws or good defensive plays.
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
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"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

#33
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Postby skinsfan#33 » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:50 am

The Hogster wrote:Stays

Predict Gaffney will be a cap casualty, especially if we get no relief from this cap penalty.


Hogster,
I hope you aren't correct on this. If you are then we didn't get any better at WR in the off season, we simply got younger and more expensive. If we trade Garcon for Gafney we trade one player that costs less (Gaffney) for a player with virtually IDENTICLE production to a younger player that costs a lot more.

Now if we plan on having Gaffney, Moss, and Garcon on the field at the same time we defiantly got better. J Morgan is probably an improvement over AAA, but I'm not so sure. I think he is, but the year AAA had with McRib (a qb that can extend the play and get the ball down field) would be fantastic from a #4 or#5 WR.

To me if you are trying to win next year Garcon, Gaffney, Moss are your starters. With Hankerson, Morgan, and AAA getting worked into the rotation.

If they are looking more at how you will be in 2013 then I would start Hankerson, Garcon, and Gaffney (in the slot) and you let Moss go. In this set up Morgan would get a lot of playing time too. AAA would get cut and Austin or Paul would makes the team.
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
(It is time to roll the dice) Tai'shar Manetheren

"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby Irn-Bru » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:08 am

skinsfan#33 wrote:No, they are not! Every player is graded on the same scale w/o fan colored glasses messing with your prescription.

Oh, so at least they are consistent. Still, being consistently bad isn't good enough for me. :P


Look I know the official stats only count balls that were clearly dropped and don't count an incomplete pass that could have been caught if the WR made a really good play. I have heard many fans say some one dropped a catch when the ball was thrown behind the player and into coverage where the db had just as much chance to catch the ball a the wr. Most "drops" fans blame on a wr aren't drops at all they are bad throws or good defensive plays.


The drop stats are super conservative, and it's just not true that "most" other drops aren't drops at all. This has nothing to do with fan-colored glasses.
"Last year I thought we'd win it all. This year I know we will." - Rex Ryan, on what would become the 8-8 2011 Jets

"Dream team." - Vince Young, on what would become the 8-8 2011 Eagles

#33
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Postby skinsfan#33 » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:17 am

Irn-Bru wrote:
skinsfan#33 wrote:No, they are not! Every player is graded on the same scale w/o fan colored glasses messing with your prescription.

Oh, so at least they are consistent. Still, being consistently bad isn't good enough for me. :P


Look I know the official stats only count balls that were clearly dropped and don't count an incomplete pass that could have been caught if the WR made a really good play. I have heard many fans say some one dropped a catch when the ball was thrown behind the player and into coverage where the db had just as much chance to catch the ball a the wr. Most "drops" fans blame on a wr aren't drops at all they are bad throws or good defensive plays.


The drop stats are super conservative, and it's just not true that "most" other drops aren't drops at all. This has nothing to do with fan-colored glasses. How much would you like to bet that the stats teams keep on their own receivers don't match up with the official ones at all, and in fact are much harsher on the players?

Right now the NFL isn't interested in advancing the stats they collect, so they are sticking with only extremely obvious drops — they leave out a huge number of incomplete passes that could reasonably be attributed to the WR. So what you are left with isn't necessarily a good indicator of how likely a receiver was to drop a ball thrown to him. That's why I say "worse than useless"; they actually can be misleading.

Ok, so what do you use? As far as I know they are the only unbiased stats available.
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
(It is time to roll the dice) Tai'shar Manetheren

"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby Irn-Bru » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:29 am

skinsfan#33 wrote:Ok, so what do you use? As far as I know they are the only unbiased stats available.


Well, whether a dropped ball is the WRs fault is always a judgment call, so I'd argue that there are no "unbiased" stats if by "unbiased" you mean everyone could always agree on them.

When I'm researching drops I like to look at as many game charters and I can find who cover them. Sometimes my favorite stat sites, who we've already talked about in the past, cite them — though they don't currently keep records of them every year. With a little googling I see names I recognize from past research (Pro Football Focus).

But I don't dislike the official NFL stats on drops because I have a better source for drops, even though it's true I'd rather use other game charters. It's that I think relying on drop stats in general, at least right now, is troublesome. Anthony Armstrong is the perfect example for why. You really think his hands weren't responsible for any of the incompletes that came his direction last year?
"Last year I thought we'd win it all. This year I know we will." - Rex Ryan, on what would become the 8-8 2011 Jets

"Dream team." - Vince Young, on what would become the 8-8 2011 Eagles

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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:33 am

skinsfan#33 wrote:
Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:I'm tired of waiting for him to learn how to catch.
The official NFL stats for drops are worse than useless. You have to rely on other game charters for that information.
No, they are not!


You seriously don't think AA has an issue with drops? It's not a question, he does. I watch the games. So apparently do a lot of other people in this thread. Ray's defending him and explaining the drops, not denying them. If you're seriously denying it, you're just being silly. Remember the time he dropped the same pass on the same play twice in a row in the end zone? The guy is Mr. 50/50. He'll alternate spectacular plays with just horrible drops.
Last edited by KazooSkinsFan on Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

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Postby Irn-Bru » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:34 am

KazooSkinsFan wrote:You seriously don't think AA has an issue with drops? It's not a question, he does. I watch the games.

Apparently that can only be your fan-colored glasses talking! ;)
"Last year I thought we'd win it all. This year I know we will." - Rex Ryan, on what would become the 8-8 2011 Jets

"Dream team." - Vince Young, on what would become the 8-8 2011 Eagles

kazoo
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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:36 am

Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:You seriously don't think AA has an issue with drops? It's not a question, he does. I watch the games.

Apparently that can only be your fan-colored glasses talking! ;)


I didn't quite get that. Wouldn't fan colored mean I'm biased for the Skins, not against them?
Groucho: Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him

Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

Twain: A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way

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Postby crazyhorse1 » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:55 am

Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:You seriously don't think AA has an issue with drops? It's not a question, he does. I watch the games.

Apparently that can only be your fan-colored glasses talking! ;)


I think I've seen all of AA's drops and most of them weren't--they were tough plays that, frankly, Moss wouldn't have made. His hands are fine. He's a talent, held back by Rex, so far. I don't know if he'll make the team but there's no way someone like Paul and some of the others should beat him out, unless age is an issue. My top few: Moss, Garcon, Hankerson, Gafney, AA, Morgan. Banks as kick returner.

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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:05 am

crazyhorse1 wrote:
Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:You seriously don't think AA has an issue with drops? It's not a question, he does. I watch the games.

Apparently that can only be your fan-colored glasses talking! ;)


I think I've seen all of AA's drops and most of them weren't--they were tough plays that, frankly, Moss wouldn't have made. His hands are fine. He's a talent, held back by Rex, so far. I don't know if he'll make the team but there's no way someone like Paul and some of the others should beat him out, unless age is an issue. My top few: Moss, Garcon, Hankerson, Gafney, AA, Morgan. Banks as kick returner.


Paul's advantage would be special teams.
Groucho: Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him

Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

Twain: A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way

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Postby skinsfan#33 » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:29 am

Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:You seriously don't think AA has an issue with drops? It's not a question, he does. I watch the games.

Apparently that can only be your fan-colored glasses talking! ;)


No it is his opinion, based on a bias that our WRs aren't any good. I was trying to take opinion out of the equation, but you said my stats were worse than useless. So I asked for a better source of stats that would better support your argument, but either there isn't any or you just felt making jokes was a better way of countering the official stats.

Look I understand that official drops are ultra conservative and they reflect catches the player should have made and not the catches they could have made.

You think AAA has a problem not catching balls he could have caught. I don't remember him having a problem with that. But he got so few opportunities (only 27 targets in 2011) that maybe it just didn't stand out to me!

I never said you were wrong. I nearly pointed out that officially he had no drops! Usually, the number of official drops does correlate and gives an indication of how many passes a player dropped that he could have caught. However, with a sample size so small (27 targets) that might not be accurate. But if there are stats on the "could have caught" drops, then I would genuinely like to know where I could find them.

By fan colored glasses I meant two things. One, you probably watch more Skins games than other games (percentage wise) so you would notice more "drops" by our receivers. Two, your are apt to call a tough catch that could haves been caught, but probably shouldn't have been caught, a drop. This is only natural since you have an emotional investment in the team. It is real hard to have an objective view, when you are emotionally invested in a play.
"Dovie'andi se tovya sagain"
(It is time to roll the dice) Tai'shar Manetheren

"Duty is heavier than a Mountain, Death is lighter than a feather" Tai'shar Malkier

RIP James Oliver Rigney, Jr. 1948-2007

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Postby Skeletor » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:38 am

This a classic offseason thread. But a lot will depend on what happens in camp. Will hank be ready to go or does he start on the pup list... Do all receivers make it through healthy... And perhaps most important of all, who develops a good rapport with the new qb.

Armstrong worked great with mcnabb but not so great with Rex.

Then you have to consider who can play special teams and who is eligible for practice squad.

It think it's going to come down to moss, armstrong and gaffney for two spots, and unless AAA comes on really strong, you have to lean toward the proven vets...

But somebody with talent is going to be cut...

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Postby KazooSkinsFan » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:42 am

Skeletor wrote:This a classic offseason thread. But a lot will depend on what happens in camp


We are aware of that. It's not just receiver play, but injuries could change things or special teams play. Also the relative strengths of receivers for different roles. We may be able to trade one receiver and not another we rate about the same. There are a lot of factors, we're just making predictions
Groucho: Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him

Proverb: Failure is not falling down. Failure is not getting up again

Twain: A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way

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Postby Skeletor » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:51 am

I know, predictions are always fun...

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