North Korea

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North Korea

Postby Redskin in Canada » Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:26 am

Some of you might be interested to learn more about it beyond the publicity stunts by Kim Jung Un shown by CNN or the BBC:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/index.html

http://www.stratfor.com/

http://csis.org/

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en.aspx

It is a BLUFF, people. It is a BLUFF.

a BLUFF with an internal domestic agenda and blackmail intentions towards the outside written all over it.
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Postby tribeofjudah » Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:49 am

Hey RIC, please explain the "bluff" in layman's terms....
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Postby Redskin in Canada » Mon Apr 15, 2013 3:49 pm

tribeofjudah wrote:Hey RIC, please explain the "bluff" in layman's terms....


Easy links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluff

a deception for intimidation purposes

If you have played poker, you already know:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluff_(poker)

a threat that cannot be executed
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Postby HTTRRG3ALMO » Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:11 pm

Corner a dog & the barking is replaced with biting.

Don't mistake me for a war junkie, but enough is enough. I hope there is a joint effort to take this guy out and somehow unite Korea. Don't want to see the US do it (alone) as this will only hurt us more in the international community.

Trying to reason with someone out of their mind is the same as trying to reason with an intoxicated drunk. It isn't going anyway good and nothing is going to sink in.

Threatening nuclear war should be taken just as seriously as a nuclear bomb that's already hit a nation.

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Re: North Korea

Postby Countertrey » Tue Apr 16, 2013 6:14 am

Redskin in Canada wrote:Some of you might be interested to learn more about it beyond the publicity stunts by Kim Jung Un shown by CNN or the BBC:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/index.html

http://www.stratfor.com/

http://csis.org/

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en.aspx

It is a BLUFF, people. It is a BLUFF.

a BLUFF with an internal domestic agenda and blackmail intentions towards the outside written all over it.


Not sure what your point is, RiC... but the world repeatedly falls for the tantruming, and gives the PRK what it wants... It needs to be completely ignored. China is responsible for the recurrences of this, and for the continued poverty of the North Korean people because they refuse to impose truly effective actions to force appropriate international behavior by the tyrants in charge of the PRK.

It will not end until the PRK is forced to collapse. Period.
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Re: North Korea

Postby Deadskins » Tue Apr 16, 2013 6:29 am

Countertrey wrote:China is responsible for the recurrences of this

+1
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Re: North Korea

Postby UK Skins Fan » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:31 pm

Deadskins wrote:
Countertrey wrote:China is responsible for the recurrences of this

+1

Thank god. So this one isn't OUR fault?
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Postby Deadskins » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:52 pm

UnKnown Skins Fan wrote:
Deadskins wrote:
Countertrey wrote:China is responsible for the recurrences of this

+1

Thank god. So this one isn't OUR fault?

The French? Only partially.
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Postby Countertrey » Tue Apr 16, 2013 5:17 pm

Deadskins wrote:
UnKnown Skins Fan wrote:
Deadskins wrote:
Countertrey wrote:China is responsible for the recurrences of this

+1

Thank god. So this one isn't OUR fault?

The French? Only partially.
Isn't that a given?
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Postby UK Skins Fan » Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:43 am

Deadskins wrote:
UnKnown Skins Fan wrote:
Deadskins wrote:
Countertrey wrote:China is responsible for the recurrences of this

+1

Thank god. So this one isn't OUR fault?

The French? Only partially.

Up yours Fritz.
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Re: North Korea

Postby Redskin in Canada » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:02 am

Countertrey wrote:Not sure what your point is, RiC... but the world repeatedly falls for the tantruming, and gives the PRK what it wants... It needs to be completely ignored.

It is not as simple as that. I wish it was.

China is responsible for the recurrences of this, and for the continued poverty of the North Korean people because they refuse to impose truly effective actions to force appropriate international behavior by the tyrants in charge of the PRK.

The regime was not created by PRC. It was created by the Soviet military. PRC benefits from the distraction but if you are under the impression that they truly control N kore, you would be mistaken. They are an important tempering force in that regime, perhaps the only one but they are no the "deciders" in Pyongyang.

N Korea is a great source of natural resources and business to PRC. They do not want US troops next to its borders in a unified Korea. But EVEN for them, these tantrums are more than a bit too much.

THEIR explanation is that this is a maneuver designed to consolidate a domestic agenda of power and control for a man-child truly managed by the top elite of the N Korea military. Remember, this is the 3rd son, from a mistress actually, to his father. The other two are a drunk/gambler in Macau and a gay guy both kept very far away from public display in N Korea.

It will not end until the PRK is forced to collapse. Period.

So far, all of these are threats envisaged to force the West to negotiate from a position of strength induced by blackmail and to consolidate power from within.

HOWEVER, if and when the N korea regime feels that it is not viable or sustainable economically, there is an ACTUAL risk that they will commit something stupid as a suicide action taking others with them.

To me the REAL threshold is whether they move ahead with their nuclear program or not. Not very different than Iran, by the way. :roll:

Interestingly, both the nuclear programs in Iran and N Korea were fostered from information and knowledge from the Pakistan program, not PRC, by the way.

So, stay tuned. We are leaving a far more complex and dangerous World to our children than the one we inherited from our parents. :explode:
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Postby Countertrey » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:31 pm

RiC, please do not assume I am uninformed. While you and I do not always agree regarding the direction the world should take, I am fully aware of the etiology of the nuclear problem that North Korea currently presents, and of the role played by the duplicitous Pakistanis. Through 32 years in the US military, I always kept an ear towards Korea...

You and I both know, that the bottom line is, without China, the DPRK whithers and dies. The Chinese have obstructed real progress for decades for their own (unusually) short sighted purposes.

The Chinese prop them... and do so primarily because,
1: the provide a foil that has no direct connection to China, but on which China can rely on to irritate and annoy the ROK, Japan, The United States, and, to a lesser extent, the Taiwan. China gets plausible deniability... but we know...
2. They need the government of the DPRK to continue to function to avoid a flood of North Korean refugees from streaming across the Yalu.
3. The PDRK forms a buffer against the ROK, which is an industrial powerhouse, and has a very potent military capability in it's own right. They would prefer not to have a highly successful, capitalist and truly democratic nation, which is, OBTW, militarily very competent, on it's northeastern border.

If Peking tells P'yongyang to knock the crap off... it will stop.

I agree that the question of nuclear weapons complicates this further... for that, I blame Bush, Clinton, and Bush 2. There were opportunities to turn the screws back then... but, nobody wanted to either piss of China, nor assume the risk that they might be blamed for a humanitarian disaster occurring in North Korea... After the first time Kim the second reniged on a deal without cause, everyone except Foggy Bottom and it's White House master knew that there was no agreement that Kim would abide once getting his treat.

Better to bite the bullet NOW than to continue to play this game until Korea actually has the ability to Nuke the ROK into oblivion and do real damage to US Cities.

Your threshold ("whether they move ahead with their nuclear program or not"), btw, has been crossed multiple times, now. At what point do we stop playing this game? When do we draw a line and actually enforce it? After mushroom clouds appear over Taejon, Pusan, Taegu? After he has 50 reliable ICBM's aimed at cities in the US and Canada? What does the blackmail look like then?

Regarding your last...
We are leaving a far more complex and dangerous World to our children than the one we inherited from our parents

Yes, it's pretty messy... on the other hand, NATO and the WARSAW Pact are no longer looking at each other down the sights of long guns and held back only by "mutually assured destruction"... Have you forgotten what that was like?
Last edited by Countertrey on Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby SkinsJock » Sun Apr 21, 2013 7:40 pm

I understand this idiot has nuclear weapons - do they have the capability to put a nuclear warhead on a missile that is capable of reaching the continental US?
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Postby Irn-Bru » Sun Apr 21, 2013 8:39 pm

If anyone here hasn't watched the documentary "Crossing the Line," please check it out. It's fascinating.

(Edit. Found a link. Not great quality, but anyway here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okeL5Xk1qz4)
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Postby Redskin in Canada » Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:44 pm

Countertrey wrote:RiC, please do not assume I am uninformed. While you and I do not always agree regarding the direction the world should take, I am fully aware of the etiology of the nuclear problem that North Korea currently presents, and of the role played by the duplicitous Pakistanis. Through 32 years in the US military, I always kept an ear towards Korea...

When I post in this public forum, I am aware that my posts can be read by people with a wide range of backgrounds. Some might be old enough to have been veterans of the war or young enough to have obtained an academic specialization on this topic. Others may not be able to find North Korea on a map or know what the forgotten war was about. Most are somewhere in between both ends of the spectrum.

You and I both know, that the bottom line is, without China, the DPRK whithers and dies. The Chinese have obstructed real progress for decades for their own (unusually) short sighted purposes.

A complete statement would include a reference to the fact that PRC did not "create" DPRK. That "creation" is due to one of the most backward members of the Soviet military who never had anything but a very rudimentary set of Stalinist ideas about nation building.

DPRK is useful to PRC, no doubt. But one must be very careful to blame the Chinese government for "obstructing real progress". That is where i definitely disagree and argue that this is a far more complex case than the single blame scenario proposed in that one-liner.

The Chinese prop them... and do so primarily because,
1: the provide a foil that has no direct connection to China, but on which China can rely on to irritate and annoy the ROK, Japan, The United States, and, to a lesser extent, the Taiwan. China gets plausible deniability... but we know...

The above statement assumes that PRC has a great deal of control over DPRK policies and decisions.You would be wrong, in my view. While the "usefulness" of the scenario proposed is undeniable, the cause and effect link is simply not true.

2. They need the government of the DPRK to continue to function to avoid a flood of North Korean refugees from streaming across the Yalu.

Another very secondary element in the PRC's calculations. I would argue that a strange mix of tension, peace and stability is essential to their cause. PRC does not want an armed conflict anymore than RK, Japan or the USA. While the strength of the North Korean military lies mainly on conventional weapons, EVERYBODY I know in the region affirms that they would have no qualms whatsoever to use their chemical and biological weapons soon after the conflict starts. Yes, such use would be suicide but we are not talking with a rational State.

3. The PDRK forms a buffer against the ROK, which is an industrial powerhouse, and has a very potent military capability in it's own right. They would prefer not to have a highly successful, capitalist and truly democratic nation, which is, OBTW, militarily very competent, on it's northeastern border.

It is not a unified South Korean military that concerns PRC. Trust me, the capability of the South Korean forces is no match to the power of the Chinese ever growing and increasingly sophisticated defence forces. It is the presence of US forces immediately next to their border that creates a great deal of concern to them.

If Peking tells P'yongyang to knock the crap off... it will stop.
Actually, this is NOT true. I wil not argue. I know for a fact the anger and discomfort in Beijing about their recent behaviour. DPRK and PRC have communicated and the exchanges have been difficult recently.

I agree that the question of nuclear weapons complicates this further... for that, I blame Bush, Clinton, and Bush 2. There were opportunities to turn the screws back then... but, nobody wanted to either piss of China, nor assume the risk that they might be blamed for a humanitarian disaster occurring in North Korea... After the first time Kim the second reniged on a deal without cause, everyone except Foggy Bottom and it's White House master knew that there was no agreement that Kim would abide once getting his treat.
The famine of the 90's was responsible for the starvation of over a million North Koreans. The regime survived. I do not think that you should blame your politicians that bad, even if they deserve it. Remember that North Korea is an afterthought and almost a headache for them. Their focus was the middle-east, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Pakistan and Afghanistan. You can over-extend the capabilities of US armed forces only so much. Not to mention the economic and human cost of fighting too many fronts at the same time.

Better to bite the bullet NOW than to continue to play this game until Korea actually has the ability to Nuke the ROK into oblivion and do real damage to US Cities.
Cost versus benefit. I would argue that there might be peaceful means which may still lend positive results rather than to pay the enormous cost of another war.

Yes, war may happen and we must and will be ready when it is unavoidable. But there are still powerful options available to us to control the situation. Are they sure to work? No. But they have a good chance.

Your threshold ("whether they move ahead with their nuclear program or not"), btw, has been crossed multiple times, now. At what point do we stop playing this game? When do we draw a line and actually enforce it? After mushroom clouds appear over Taejon, Pusan, Taegu? After he has 50 reliable ICBM's aimed at cities in the US and Canada? What does the blackmail look like then?

There are ways to know.

Regarding your last...
We are leaving a far more complex and dangerous World to our children than the one we inherited from our parents

Yes, it's pretty messy... on the other hand, NATO and the WARSAW Pact are no longer looking at each other down the sights of long guns and held back only by "mutually assured destruction"... Have you forgotten what that was like?

I have absolutely no doubt that the situation is worse NOW. During the Cold War you had rational people in charge of pressing the buttons. The Cuban crisis was a great example of that. All conflicts fought by forces by either side were conducted with conventional weapons during that period.

Today, you have fanatics with the capability of WMD in Iran and North Korea with dreams of martyrdom in defence of their causes. Both regions are equally unstable now, in my view.

I recently gave my views on disputes in Asia in an international conference of experts on this field in your country. It was well received. :wink:
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